Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
340 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal.

High pressure is over the OH Valley. A reinforcing high is
dropping southward, east of the Canadian Rockies. This is the
source of next cold air blast, which will start pushing into the
area later Thursday. In the meantime though, wsw-erly low-level
flow is allowing temps to rebound, and the pressure gradient
north of the high will tighten further tonight. This will tend to
keep us coupled, and result in much warmer temps than we've seen
(and will see) this week.

Lake effect flurries/stratocu into northern lower MI is
continuing to diminish, with flurries now confined to Emmet/
Cheboygan/Presque Isle Cos. Flow on Superior is more westerly, and
the southernmost band there is impacting he Whitefish Pt area.
Don't think that lasts too much longer, as the next tiny bit of
backing winds this evening will displace activity northward.
Flurry chances will still persist into the evening across the tip
of the mitten.

Cyclogenesis proceeds north of Superior tonight, with the
developing surface low a bit east of Superior by 12Z. The
associated arctic front will be just to our nw at that time.
Moisture will be pooling at low levels ahead of the front, while
significant height falls start to kick in over northern sections
(as 500mb troffiness deepens north of the Great Lakes). The
antecedent airmass is quite dry though, and we have a lot of work
ahead of us to realize precip. That work will be accomplished on
Thursday, but not as much late tonight. For now, just a chance of
snow showers arrives in eastern upper MI (especially Chippewa Co)
after 4am.

Temps will not fall off too much with the winds largely staying
up, and higher clouds increasing. Lows near 10 above in eastern
upper MI in the mid teens to around 20f northern lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023

...Coldest air of the season arrives by Friday morning.

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating and blowing snow
potential Thursday - Friday, cold wind chills Friday and Saturday
mornings.

Pattern Synopsis:

Split upper-level flow will continue through the end of the week
across the western half of the CONUS, merging over areas along and
east of the Mississippi Valley. Troughing embedded in the northern
stream will dig from southern Canada over the Great Lakes Thursday
into Friday, providing strong divergence aloft to generate
cyclogenesis along existing baroclinicity with an advancing cold
front. This cyclone will trek across the far northern Great Lakes
into Quebec on Thursday as the associated cold front swings across
northern Michigan Thursday afternoon/early evening. Strong high
pressure will build across much of the Great Plains and into the
Great Lakes Friday - Saturday with subsidence aloft behind the
aforementioned system, along with lake-aggregate troughing over Lake
Superior and Lake Huron as early as Thursday evening between the two
surface features.

Forecast Details:

Snow showers are expected to be ongoing across portions of northern
Michigan Thursday morning -- both along/immediately ahead of the
advancing cold front across eastern upper and lake enhanced snow
showers across northwest lower. While lake effect activity may be
light and confined to the Tip of the Mitt to start the period,
southward expansion of more favorable moisture and moistening of the
column at large is expected to bring about an uptick in this
activity as the morning progresses. When this happens, forecast
soundings display a favorable environment for efficient crystal
growth characterized by saturation through around a 5 kft layer
confined within the DGZ. This will support the chance for a quick
few inches of accumulation -- most notably across Antrim,
Charlevoix, and Emmet counties -- with WSW flow before winds begin
to shift through the day and limit residence time for this initial
lake effect activity before it gets disrupted briefly by the frontal
passage Thursday afternoon. Gusty winds of 25-35 mph ahead of the
front will bring the chance for blowing snow across open areas and
quick reductions in visibility -- potentially down to 1/2 SM or less
as early as Thursday morning.

Northwest flow lake effect activity is expected to pick back up
quickly after the frontal passage Thursday afternoon and evening.
With much cooler air filtering into the region, snowflake growth
will become less and less efficient with time. This will keep the
main focus on visibility reductions rather than snowfall amounts
Thursday night into Friday with more fine snowflakes falling within
lake effect bands. Rapid drops in visibility will certainly be
possible within any more dominant bands across the area through
Friday. Nonetheless, several inches of snow will be possible with
lake effect bands across two main areas Thursday night through
Friday -- immediately east/southeast of Grand Traverse Bay,
including Antrim and Kalkaska counties, and the eastern upper
peninsula. Particular focus will be given to portions of eastern
upper as aforementioned lake-aggregate troughing may lead to a
strong, dominant lake effect band that sets up as early as Thursday
evening. Even with unfavorable thermo profiles, locally high
snowfall totals would be possible should a dominant band set up over
an area for a prolonged period of time into Friday. Lake effect
chances are expected to continue into Friday evening before tapering
off.

Cold wind chills are also expected across much of northern Michigan
Thursday night into Friday morning. Air temperatures look to drop
into the single digits and teens below zero for many areas inland of
the lakeshores early Friday morning. When combined with winds
between 5-15 mph, wind chills look to drop to -15 to -30 degrees
with the coldest values coming across the eastern upper peninsula.
Wind chills are expected to remain between 0 and -20 degrees through
the day Friday. Additional accumulating snow chances return to the
eastern U.P. early Saturday morning as southwest flow brings lake
enhanced snow potential to western Mackinac county. A weak front
swinging through the area will spread snow chances across the
remainder of the eastern U.P. and parts of northern lower through
the rest of the day. Wind chills of -5 to -15 degrees are
anticipated Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

A shortwave embedded in the main flow will continue to progress over
the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday, amplifying with time and
providing forcing aloft to support a relatively broad cyclone that
looks to stretch from James Bay down into the upper Great Lakes as
it traverses this region Sunday morning. Snow chances mentioned in
the short term will continue through Saturday night across the
eastern U.P. and portions of northern lower before a transition to
lake effect snow occurs Sunday with northwest low-level flow on the
backside of the system. High pressure looks to temporarily build in
to start the week, ceasing precip chances for a time before the next
system looks to arrive in the Monday night/Tuesday timeframe. With
warm advection ahead of this potential system, high temperatures
look to rise into the upper 30s and 40s across the area and bring
rain and mixed precip chances as opposed to all snow ahead of the
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023

High pressure remains over the northern OH Valley, and will
control our weather until a strong cold front drops into northern
MI on Thursday. Some lake effect clouds and flurries will be in
place in nw and n central lower MI into tonight. Those will
become more prevalent as the cold front approaches Thursday.
Until then, a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions. IFR vsbys possible
at CIU/PLN toward midday Thursday.

Sw to w winds will remain somewhat blustery into Thursday morning.
Winds will veer and increase into Thu afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023

Blustery west to southwest winds will continue into early
Thursday, and in fact will be become a bit breezier overnight
tonight and Thu morning. A strong cold front crosses the area
Thursday, with winds veering nw and become gustier. Advisories are
already in effect on most waters; those will be extended and
expanded shortly. A few gale force gusts are possible from Thu
afternoon onward, especially on Lk Huron.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ346>349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321.
&&

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ

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