Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
232 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Non-severe isolated thunderstorms
late this afternoon/early evening, mainly south of M-72.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure across
western Hudson Bay this afternoon will make only little eastward
progress through tonight. Attendant longwave troughing remains
draped across the eastern third of the CONUS while impressive
ridging/heat dome continues to be felt over the western CONUS.
Embedded subtle/low amplitude shortwave ridging has essentially
cleared northern Michigan this morning and early afternoon with
broad troughing the rule through tonight. Fairly stagnant surface
pattern overhead with generally weak high pressure overhead,
although an approaching trough axis tonight will aid to shove that
high pressure off to the south and east.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Isolated shower/storm potential.
Otherwise, cloud and temperature trends.

Tranquil conditions prevailed through midday across northern
Michigan under mostly sunny skies with just some shallow cu
development. Somewhat better moisture continues to pool downstate,
stretching up as far north as the M-72 corridor or so. Initial
shower/storm development noted south of TVC in the last hour.
Additional isolated shower/storm development anticipated across
those far southern sections this afternoon into early evening. No
severe weather anticipated, although any thunderstorms may produce
briefly heavier rainfall rates. Any isolated activity should
diminish with the loss of diurnal support by mid-late evening.
Scattered precip across Wisconsin later this evening expected to
diminish with eastward extent over Lake Michigan overnight, but may
scrape the northwest lower coast after 06z.

Afternoon lake breeze dominated low-level wind field turns out of
the south tonight with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s for the
coolest spots. Those southerly winds will begin to aid in bringing
deeper moisture back to the Northwoods for Sunday...evident by PWs
progged to around 1.20" west of Interstate 75 by 12z Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Occasional thunderstorm chances
continue. Perhaps a couple strong to severe on Tuesday?

Pattern Forecast: By early Sunday morning, closed upper-level low
pressure sits across Hudson Bay with attendant longwave troughing
draped across the eastern Great Lakes and down the eastern seaboard.
Impressive longwave ridging/heat dome remains evident upstream over
the western CONUS. Troughing generally remains the rule locally
through the short-term forecast period, albeit with slowly rising
heights. At the surface, initial focus through the end of the
weekend will revolve around an approaching cold front late Sunday
into Sunday night. Higher surface pressures are expected to prevail
Monday into Tuesday, although Sunday's stalled boundary to our south
and lake breeze development may continue to provide the impetus for
isolated to scattered shower/storm development.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Shower/storm potential each afternoon.

Generally quiet conditions anticipated to start the day Sunday
across northern Michigan, although wouldn't be entirely shocked to
see a few isolated showers dot the map asoss northwest lower.
That said, deeper moisture will continue to advect in from the west
leading to PWs rising to near 1.40" by Sunday afternoon. Combination
of deeper moisture, support from embedded/subtle shortwave(s) and
approaching surface cold front off to the northwest is expected to
aid in more numerous showers/storms during the afternoon and early
evening. Not much in the way of a severe weather threat given bulk
shear values struggling to climb much above 20 kts, but locally
heavy rainfall rates are a good bet in any thunderstorms. Localized
QPF amounts exceeding an inch are not out of the question as a
result. Any lingering activity should largely diminish with the loss
of diurnal support during the evening. High temperatures spanning
the upper 70s to low 80s -- just a touch cooler at the beaches. Dew
points creeping into the low 60s will give much of the area a more
sticky/humid feel.

Little change for Monday with highs generally in the low 80s for
most of the Northwoods with afternoon showers/storms entering the
forecast once again given support from another subtle mid-level wave
and low-level convergence along afternoon lake breeze development.
Briefly heavier rainfall rates possible again in any thunderstorms
and perhaps an outside chance at a couple stronger updrafts given
marginally more favorable shear as high as 30-35 kts. While the bulk
of precip should diminish with the loss of diurnal support, perhaps
enough mid-level support works its way in overnight to kick off a
few more showers.

Less-than-desired confidence prevails for Tuesday, but latest trends
suggest diurnally driven showers/storms may be possible once again
in the presence of strengthening winds aloft. Perhaps the Tuesday
afternoon/early evening time frame features a low-end chance for an
isolated strong to severe storm given increasing bulk shear values
to near 35-40 kts, but lots of uncertainty surrounding the mesoscale
details and our ability to destabilize prevents messaging such a
threat at this point. High temperatures Tuesday in the low-mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Troughing over the eastern third of Canada and the CONUS on
Tuesday is expected to break down Tuesday night/early
Wednesday...allowing upstream ridging to build across the nation's
midsection for the mid-late week time period. Northern Michigan
expected to lie on the northern periphery of this ridging with
increasing heat/humidity expected to be the primary story. Some
potential still exists for occasional waves to top this ridge,
potentially bringing occasional precip chances/MCS potential
across the northern tier of the country and southern Canada. Lots
of uncertainties in spatial and temporal extent of precip, but
worth monitoring over the next week. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period. A stray
shower or storm is possible late this afternoon through early
evening, but chances continue to remain too low to include in the
TAF. Additional decaying showers may approach MBL/TVC later
tonight. Additional shower/storm chances return Sunday with
VSBY/CIG restrictions possible in any heavier, but brief
downpours.

Lake breeze development likely this afternoon. Otherwise, winds turn
out of the south-southwest tonight through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Sub-advisory conditions expected to continue on northern MI's
nearshore waters over the next several days. Increasing shower
chances anticipated by late tonight into Sunday, and at times
through early in the upcoming week.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MJG
MARINE...MJG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
242 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

MIZ025-026-032-221930-
Grand Traverse MI-Benzie MI-Wexford MI-
242 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...Scattered strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
southeastern Benzie, northern Wexford and southwestern Grand
Traverse Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 241 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking scattered strong
thunderstorms across portions of eastern Benzie, southern Grand
Traverse and northern Wexford counties. These storms were nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4467 8551 4442 8534 4431 8555 4450 8582
      4467 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 273DEG 3KT 4455 8572

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

GILLEN