Gale Warning 23, NWS Gaylord, MI

721 
WHUS73 KAPX 270157
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

LSZ321-322-271000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0023.231027T1800Z-231028T0300Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...From 2 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ346-271000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T1200Z/
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Manistee to Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-271000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.231027T1400Z-231028T1200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO
8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-271000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.231027T1600Z-231028T1200Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO
8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 5NM East of 
  Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc 
  Island, Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder 
  Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

040 
WHUS73 KAPX 270706
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
306 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

LSZ321-322-271515-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0023.231027T1800Z-231028T0300Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
306 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ346-271515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T1200Z/
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
306 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Manistee to Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-271515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.231027T1400Z-231028T1200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
306 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-271515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.231027T1600Z-231028T1200Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
306 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 5NM East of 
  Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc 
  Island, Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder 
  Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

669 
WHUS73 KAPX 271449
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1049 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

LSZ321-322-272300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0023.231027T1800Z-231028T0300Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1049 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ346-272300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T1200Z/
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1049 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Manistee to Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-272300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T1200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
1049 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 7 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-272300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.231027T1600Z-231028T1200Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1049 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 5NM East of 
  Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc 
  Island, Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder 
  Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

250 
WHUS73 KAPX 271853
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

LSZ321-322-280300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-231028T0300Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the west and highest 
  waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ346-280300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T1400Z/
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...Manistee to Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-280300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T1400Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-280300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T2000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 5NM East of 
  Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc 
  Island, Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder 
  Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

294 
WHUS73 KAPX 280240
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1040 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

LSZ321-322-281045-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-231028T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T2100Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1040 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ349-280345-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T2000Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1040 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LMZ323-341-345-346-281045-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T1200Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1040 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI, Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac 
  Bridge, Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI and Manistee to 
  Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>348-281045-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T2100Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1040 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 5NM East of 
  Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc 
  Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including 
  Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ342-344-281045-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-231028T1600Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
1040 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...In Lake Huron, Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of 
  Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island. In Lake Michigan, 
  Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little 
  Traverse Bay and Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light 
  MI.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
203 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

Current forecast remains on track with no major changes as rain
continues to spread across northern Michigan. For details, please
see the near term discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Nothing too significant. Watching
locally heavy rain potential into this evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Cloudy, misty night across much of the northwoods, the product of a
moisture rich low level environment along a stalled northern
Michigan frontal boundary. Sharp shortwave trough in the process of
rotating northeast across the southern Plains...made to do so by
deep ridging across the eastern Conus. Anomalous surge of western
Gulf of Mexico moisture racing north ahead of this wave, as evident
by observed precipitable water values in excess of 1.50 inches as
far north as the southwest Great Lakes. Area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms within this moisture plume, some of which have
produced some very heavy rain totals this past afternoon and evening.

All eyes directed at that approaching wave and attendant deep
moisture, both of which will rotate up across our area today into
this evening. Widespread rain will be the result, perhaps producing
some appreciable rainfall totals by later this evening.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Rain (embedded thunder?) evolution through tonight. Temperature
trends a secondary concern.

Details:

Strong surge of deep moisture advection within increasing deep layer
forcing will spread widespread rain north across the area this
morning and early afternoon. Deep southwest flow will drive overhead
front north as a warm front, although simple breadth of moisture
(precipitable water values nearing/exceeding 1.50 inches...a record
for today's date) and deep forcing via upper level jet dynamics/
passing mid level support will drive additional rain development
behind the front through this evening. All systems are a go for some
respectable rainfall rates, with such a deep moisture content and
saturation nearly to the tropopause. Rainfall totals will of course
be dictated by duration of these heavy rains. Could easily see
widespread amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 inches by later this evening,
with heavier totals where individual efficient rain producing
showers train. Just enough mid level instability to perhaps produce
a few embedded thunderstorms...with these only adding to the
rainfall intensity. Not enough support for widespread flood
producing rains to introduce any flood specific headlines, but no
doubt could see some ponding in those harder to drain areas
(especially where drains are clogged by falling leaves). Showers are
expected to decrease in both areal coverage and intensity as we head
through the overnight as deepest dynamics and moisture depart off to
our northeast.

Much like the last few days, all the clouds and showers will
definitely put a lid on just how warm we become today. Expect highs
to range from the middle to upper 50s north of the Mighty Mac, and
from the lower to middle 60s to its south. Definitely a mild night
by end of October standards, with the area fully entrenched in the
warm sector of low pressure to our northwest. Lows tonight largely
ranging through the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Tentatively low... monitoring cold
frontal passage Friday.

Pattern Synopsis: Baroclinic zone is set to be over northern
Michigan one last day on Friday. Ejecting shortwave will progress
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Thunder Bay,
Ontario region by sunrise. Associated surface low pressure over
wester Lake Superior will continue its progression eastward through
the day, with an attendant NNE to SSW oriented surface cold front on
its heels. This will drum up southerly cyclonic flow at the surface
and aloft, which may allow for efficient momentum transfer of
greater flow aloft to the surface during any convective response
during the cold frontal passage in the afternoon into the evening.
This cold front will usher in a sharply cooler airmass in its wake,
with cold enough temperatures aloft intruding just enough into the
upper Great Lakes to potentially increase the overlake thermal
gradient Friday night before moisture is depleted from the profile
by an approaching surface high pressure that passes over the north
end of Lake Superior through the day Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Limited severe threat Friday; longevity
of any lake effect Friday night into Saturday.

Friday probably starts more dry than not for northern lower, with
some residual showers possible across the eastern Yoop. Moisture in
the low levels may lead to some drizzle at times during the morning
hours, and this low level moisture may be pivotal as to how
everything plays out. Guidance is depicting that the increased
southerly flow will help draw in warmer temperatures for the
afternoon just in time for the frontal passage to commence. As this
front passes, anywhere from 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE is set to be in
place, which may be just enough instability to draw stronger flow
aloft to the surface during any showers (be it prefrontal or with
the front itself). The fortunate news is that it looks like flow
aloft has tapered some in recent runs, with 850mb flow now standing
at 40-45kts. So despite low level shear being good, it looks like
for now the primary "threat" for Friday will be gusty winds in
showers or potential storms... maybe not necessarily even severe,
but given the timing of this feature, evening plans (Friday night
football games, etc.) may experience rapidly changing conditions
with the front passing through, particularly across northern lower
where instability will be maximized. Following the passage of the
front, colder air will surge into the region as winds shift west to
NW... dropping temperatures from the 60s into the 40s over the span
of a few hours.

As moisture slowly works its way out of the profile, the lake may
have a response to the colder air working overhead. 850mb temps are
expected to cool to 0 to -3 Celsius. With lake temps generally 10-14
Celsius, this may be enough to generate some lake effect rain
showers into the overnight hours. Deeper colder air will not be in
place for snow to be realized for these showers across northern
lower, but there may be enough for a few mangled flakes to be
observed in the eastern Yoop. This activity may carry into the
morning hours of Saturday, but as a surface high pressure passes
through Lake Superior, this should strip moisture from the profile,
perhaps yielding some peeks of sunshine in the afternoon before mid
level clouds increase ahead of an approaching wave in Minnesota that
will hold off on its influences until the overnight hours. Highs
Saturday peak in the low-to-mid 40s for most, near 50 closer to
Saginaw Bay.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Low... colder temps expected, but
confidence in any snow potential remains moderate at best for now.

Aforementioned wave will continue its eastward progression into the
Great Lakes, with the bulk of the deeper moisture focused along an
advancing cold front draped from the southern Great Lakes into the
southern Plains. This puts northern Michigan into a bit of a
precarious position with this wave, given dry air feeding into the
region from high pressure expected to be over northeastern Ontario.
Some guidance has moisture overpowering this drier air Saturday
night into Sunday, but I have doubts about this given that deeper
moisture return just isn't really in the mix for us. So while some
rain (possibly mixed with snow in the interior high elevations?) is
certainly possible, it is by no means any sort of guarantee...
especially if moisture isn't deep enough to generate snowflakes
given expected temperatures at the surface will probably still be in
the 40s.

The narrative may change behind this system, as guidance is
hinting at another trough passing through the region Monday into
Monday night. If this feature can remain strong enough, it may tip
the scales in favor of a deeper cold airmass that would be conducive
to firing up the lake effect snow shower machine. Moisture with this
wave looks rather limited, so a widespread synoptic snow looks a bit
unlikely. That all being said, if lake effect can get going into the
overnight hours, that could raise the stakes for impacts in the
snowbelts given expected surface temperatures in the upper 20s
Monday night, and in the mid 30s on Tuesday. This will have to be
resolved in the coming forecast cycles, as the feature I am
blabbering about is still in the Arctic Ocean, and could change its
course of action between now and next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

IFR/LIFR CIGs will continue across areas of the northern lower
peninsula near Lake Michigan and eastern upper through most of the
issuance period. Current MVFR CIGs across other portions of northern
lower should persist into this evening before they are expected to
lower back to IFR and even LIFR later tonight. VSBY reductions from
pockets of heavier showers and mist are also anticipated across
parts of the area into Friday morning. Gusty southwest winds will
lighten some overnight before strengthening back to 10-15 kts with
gusts around 25 kts during the day. A cold front is expected to work
across northern Michigan Friday afternoon near the end of the
issuance period, and winds will shift to northwest behind the
boundary -- along with bringing chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

South to southwest winds will be on the increase today for areas
south of the Straits, perhaps becoming strong enough to produce
small craft advisory conditions...especially on portions of northern
Lake Michigan. Winds gradually decrease tonight before becoming
gusty again out of the southwest on Friday. More small craft
advisory conditions are likely on some of our nearshore waters on
Friday. Winds become northwest and remain gusty Friday night behind
a departing cold front. Periods of rain expected through Friday,
along with the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LMZ346.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJC
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...DJC
MARINE...MSB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
948 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-271400-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
948 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible today into this
evening. Any storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rain...especially across northern lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few thunderstorms are possible Friday. While severe storms are
not expected, any stronger storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-271400-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
948 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible today into this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few thunderstorms are possible Friday. While severe storms are
not expected, any stronger storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.