Wind Advisory 14, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Overall, the next 24 hours is relatively quiet weather-wise.
Highs today will be on the warm side as above normal temperatures
are expected across the Panhandles ranging from the low to mid
70s. Wind speeds today of 15 to 25 mph from the south/southwest
are expected, so there could be a period of elevated fire weather
conditions as RH drops down to around 10-15 percent across the
north and northwest. Will likely issue a fire danger statement to
account for these conditions this afternoon across the
north/northwest. Wind speeds will stay on the breezy side
overnight, and low temperatures are only expected to drop down
into the 40s. Might see some low clouds/fog develop Thursday
morning, but these conditions may stay just south of the
Panhandles.

Guerrero

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed
Mar 29 2023

Upper trough over the southern CA coast will have a positive tilt
and will start to swing more neutral as it approaches the Four
Corners region.  Very warm conditions will be across the entire CWA
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  Very dry conditions will
be focused in the west and central Panhandles. Lee surface low in
eastern CO will strengthen through the day. We'll be in the right
exit region of the upper level jet and large scale subsidence will
be over the Panhandles. Strong 700mb jet will support high wind
potential for the western and portions of the northwestern
Panhandles.  These wind gusts could continue into the late evening
hours on Thursday. Surface winds will relax a bit, but still stay up
enough that diurnal nighttime cooling will be limited, and with the
strong subsidence aloft, we could still mix down the stronger wind
gusts in conjunction with a 60kt 700mb jet that's moving over the
western Panhandles.

Overnight Thursday night into Friday morning a Pacific front will
move across the Panhandles.  This will keep dry air over the
Panhandles and the overnight RH values will still be quite low in
the teens to 20s.  For Friday, a strong surface low in addition to
the well stacked jet aloft will lead to sustained winds in the 30-40
mph range with wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph.  This a bit of a pull
back from previous forecast, but sustained winds are still holding
strong.  We still are expected the better chances to be along and
south of the I-40 corridor as this is where the left entrance region
of the upper level jet is expected to be, and therefore strong
subsidence combined with peak heating will support some pretty
strong wind gust potential.  But that doesn't remove areas north of
I-40 from these strong wind gusts as well. Widespread RH values in
the 5 to 10 percent range will accompany these winds and therefore
critical Fire Weather is expected on Friday.  Given the Pacific
front on Friday, we'll be a bit cooler with highs in the 60s for the
west and lower 70s in the east. One thing to keep in mind with the
windy conditions we expect on Thursday and Friday is that we'll
likely be dealing blowing dust issues for the west on Thursday
and the majority of the Panhandles on Friday.

A brief break in the Fire Weather threats on Saturday as winds will
become light and variable Friday night into Saturday.  Highs will
be in the 70s on Saturday with limited winds and still fairly low RH
values.  Right not at best it looks to be an elevated Fire Weather
day, however if winds pick up we could have another critical day.

Moving into Sunday and early next week, the drying trend will
continue as fairly warm temperatures and dry conditions will
continue.  It looks like critical Fire Weather will be possible each
day Sunday through Tuesday.  Temperatures Sunday and Monday will
likely be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with upper 60s to upper 70s
on Tuesday.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Skies will
be mostly clear with maybe a few high clouds. Winds will be
upwards of 15 to 20 kts with slightly higher gusts out of the
southwest through about 22Z. Winds will become more southerly
there after, with southeasterly winds after 06Z Thursday.

36

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Fire Weather will be an issue for multiple days throughout the
next week. Right now Saturday looks to be the best break in the
Fire Weather, and even then we still are suggesting low end
critical conditions possible in the southwest.

The focus for now will be the short term for Thursday and Friday.
Windy to very windy conditions in the west and northwest are
expected on Thursday with RH values down around 5 to 10 percent.
Right now RFTI's are in the 6-8 range for the west and 3 to 6
range for the central Panhandles. Will not be surprised if
isolated 9's occur, most likely in the northwest Panhandles. The
main reason that this is a high end critical day and holding off
the extreme critical aspect is the fuel loading and the ERC
percentiles in the west and central Panhandles.

Friday we'll have a Pacific front move through the area, and we'll
have strong west winds and very low RH values. RFTI's on Friday
will be 6 to 8 with ares south of the Dumas, Pampa line will see
the higher number. Again, will not rule out isolated 9's if the
sustained winds exceed 40 mph, as that can't be ruled out. Overall
the sustained winds look to be 30 to 39 mph, with gust potential
near 60 mph. While the east has better fuel loading, the ERC's may
not quite be to the 90th percentile and we can expect a high end
critical Fire Weather day.

As we move into the weekend and early next week, the continued dry
and breezy to windy conditions will suggest the ERC's will move
into the 90th percentile. This will allow for more enhanced
critical Fire Weather.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                45  80  44  66 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  45  79  44  66 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              41  77  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  46  84  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              45  82  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  45  79  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               45  75  49  69 /   0  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 39  79  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  42  81  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                44  80  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                44  75  47  68 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   45  78  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                45  73  50  70 /   0  10  10   0
Wellington TX              45  74  52  71 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-016.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     OKZ001-002.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for OKZ001-002.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...36

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