Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
606 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

A mid level short wave trough moving through north-central New
Mexico will move through the ridge present over the Panhandles
tonight.  This short wave coupled with instability and shear will
help to create an MCS early this evening that will sweep
southeastward across the southwest half of the Panhandles.  These
storms will likely have damaging winds with them as well as large
hail.  Heavy rain rates may cause localized flash flooding across
the southwest half of the Texas Panhandle. Therefore, have issued a
Flood Watch for these areas tonight.  A few supercells may form
ahead of the organized line of convection moving in from the
northwest.  If the supercells develop, then some very large hail up
2 inches in diameter and damaging winds may occur with this
activity.  A tornado will also be possible.  There is an area of
agitated cumulus along an old outflow boundary that stretches from
near Plainview northwestward to near Hereford to Clayton.  If a
discrete thunderstorm can form along this old boundary then it may be
able to rotate and become a supercell that would be capable of
producing a tornado.  The southwest Texas Panhandle is also where
the best shear and CAPE will be found late this afternoon.  The
tornado threat will decrease to near zero after these supercells
dissipate or get absorbed into the line moving down from the
northwest and the wind threat will increase along with the flood
threat.  Thunderstorms should finally move out of the southeast
Texas Panhandle late tonight.

The atmosphere may be worked over on Thursday for much of the day
behind the MCS that moves across tonight.  Extensive low clouds
across the Panhandles will also cut down on the instability.
However, there are some indications that another round of
thunderstorms may move into the Panhandles from the west in
association with another short wave trough moving this way from
eastern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may move across more during the
overnight hours Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Rain looks to continue through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Sufficient daytime heating, plenty of moisture and
instability will lead to daily chances for rain and storms,
including potential for strong to severe storms thanks to sufficient
shear and instability and being on the east side of a western
trough. Main concerns will again be hail and wind, though flooding
given saturated grounds will also be a concern. As we go through the
holiday weekend and beyond, we remain on the eastside of the trough,
which will result in continued chances for showers and storms
through the period.

Culin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Thunderstorms are expected to increase across the western combined
Panhandles going into the 00Z TAF period. These storms are
expected to affect all TAF sites this evening. Some of the storms
may be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main
threats. MVFR conditions are expected to return to all TAF sites
late tonight as low clouds spread across the area in the wake of
thunderstorms. South and southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots are
expected outside of thunderstorms.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  76  59  74 /  80  50  70  60
Beaver OK                  58  76  58  74 /  60  60  60  70
Boise City OK              53  76  56  75 /  70  50  60  60
Borger TX                  60  79  61  77 /  70  60  70  60
Boys Ranch TX              58  79  60  77 / 100  60  70  60
Canyon TX                  57  76  58  74 /  80  50  70  70
Clarendon TX               59  74  60  73 /  80  50  60  60
Dalhart TX                 53  77  55  74 /  90  60  70  60
Guymon OK                  56  76  58  74 /  80  50  70  60
Hereford TX                57  78  59  76 /  80  50  60  60
Lipscomb TX                58  76  58  74 /  70  60  60  60
Pampa TX                   58  75  59  74 /  70  60  60  70
Shamrock TX                60  76  59  75 /  70  60  60  60
Wellington TX              61  77  60  77 /  70  60  60  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ001-006-007-011>013-
     016>018-317.

OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...36

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
340 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-250845-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
340 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight across the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles. A few storms may become strong to severe,
with large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds the
primary hazards. However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
In addition, the strongest storms will be capable of producing
very heavy rainfall, which may lead to flooding or flash flooding.
Parts of the western and central Texas Panhandle are in a Flood
Watch through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday and Friday across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A few storms may become strong
to severe both days, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. In addition, the strongest storms will have the potential
to produce very heavy rainfall, which may lead to flooding or
flash flooding.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Saturday through Tuesday
across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A few storms may become
strong to severe on any of those days, with large hail and damaging
winds the primary hazards at this time. Also, the strongest storms
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to
flooding or flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

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