Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1259 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

The initial concern for this forecast will be how convection
develops later this afternoon into tonight. After that, how will
this convection and any residual boundaries interact with our
atmosphere for potential storms on Thursday. Overall, I would say
this is not a high confidence forecast and details will likely be
more in the mesoscale later today.

The surface outflow boundary/cold front has moved into the region
and stalled and is generally situated from north of Hereford through
Amarillo up toward Canadian. To the north of this front, northerly
winds and clouds have helped keep conditions cooler today. As
expected, a drastic temperature gradient exists with locations in
the Oklahoma panhandle in the 70s compared to the southern Texas
panhandle seeing readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There
remains good moisture advection into the region as dewpoints are in
the 60s areawide, with some locations reaching the mid to upper 60s.
Per satellite imagery, clouds are slowing eroding with cumulus
development increasing near and south of the boundary.

For the remainder of today, there will be a couple of locations to
monitor initially for storm development and subsequent potential for
severe weather. The first being storms that can develop across the
eastern portions of the Texas panhandle, where daytime heating has
allowed for better pockets of instability and there has been far
less cloud cover and better moisture. The second being across New
Mexico and Colorado where guidance continues to indicate that later
afternoon supercells should develop and track east. The question
will remain as to how much they can maintain themselves given cooler
conditions and a little more CIN in the northern parts of the
combined Panhandles at this time. However, current shear is around
30kts and model trends are for CAPE to increase slowly in these
areas over the next few hours. They may be initially more elevated
before in time becoming surface based and pose a large hail threat
as well as wind and tornado concerns(helicity is progged to increase
through the afternoon as well, especially across portions of the
Oklahoma panhandle). Any storm that can root itself along the
boundary will bring the greatest threat for tornadoes. The main
timing for any of this round of storms could be as early as 4pm-5pm
but most models hold off until closer to 7pm.

Models have been pretty consistent in depicting a MCS coming through
the region later tonight into portions of the overnight period. The
low level jet will kick in later this evening, allowing good theta-e
advection into the region but also eliminating some of the
convective inhibition in some of the cooler locations today. Storms
ongoing further to our north in Colorado look to congeal into a line
of storms that will come pushing to the south and east through
portions of the region, likely after 10pm and the threat continuing
through 2am(perhaps a couple of hours later). While the initial
threats with the earlier convection will be large hail and perhaps a
tornado, this threat will mostly be from damaging wind gusts to
70mph. We cannot rule out the potential for locally heavy rain that
could lead to flash flooding especially given precipitable water
values around 1.45 inches forecast and any location that can get
several rounds of rainfall.

Some storms may linger in the east near daybreak tomorrow, before
clearing out. The question will remain as to how overnight
convection will affect convection Thursday, where do boundaries set
up and how fast the atmosphere can recover. Overall, it looks like
our thunderstorm potential during the day is low. The main concern
will be later in the night when another MCS looks to potentially
develop and dive to the south. There is uncertainty as to how much
of our area will be impacted by this. Guidance ranges from being
missed altogether to parts of our Oklahoma panhandle being clipped
late evening into the overnight. For now, will hold off on issuing
any graphics related to this and see how trends continue. Once again
tomorrow, thanks to cloud cover and lingering rain, there should be
some kind of temperature gradient(though not as drastic as today)
across the region with lower 80s in the north to the lower 90s in
the south.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

A robust upper-level ridge is expected to be situated over the
vicinity of northwestern Mexico/New Mexico/Arizona through the long-
term period. The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles are currently
expected to be situated on the northeastern periphery of the upper-
level ridge with weak to moderate northwesterly flow aloft. There
should be a steady fetch of mid-level moisture throughout the period
as well. Dew points in the 50s to 60s are expected to persist in the
Panhandles as there should be persistent easterly to southeasterly
surface winds. Embedded shortwaves within the flow aloft are
expected to impact at least portions of the Panhandles on a daily
basis which introduces daily thunderstorm chances. Taking all of the
above into account, strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled
out for any given day through this long-term period. There may be
some days in which the atmosphere is overworked from thunderstorms
on the previous day, but that will have to be assessed on a day-to-
day basis. There are some hints that the upper-level ridge will
build into the Panhandles in the middle of next week.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023

For the 06Z TAFs, showers and thunderstorms will likely impact
KGUY early in this terminal forecast cycle. MVFR to IFR cigs are
also expected to develop at the TAF sites early in this forecast,
then persist through mid to late morning before improving in the
afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms are possible late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Confidence is low as to whether
or not any of the terminal sites will be impacted, which precludes
mentioning at this time.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  98  67  90 /  10  10  30  10
Beaver OK                  65  93  64  82 /  30  10  40  10
Boise City OK              64  90  62  81 /  10  10  30  10
Borger TX                  70 100  67  91 /  10  10  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              70 101  67  91 /  10  10  20  10
Canyon TX                  68  98  67  91 /   0  10  20  10
Clarendon TX               70  97  70  91 /   0  10  30  10
Dalhart TX                 65  95  62  85 /  10   0  30  10
Guymon OK                  63  92  63  82 /  20  10  40  10
Hereford TX                70  98  67  93 /   0  10  20  10
Lipscomb TX                66  96  64  83 /  30  10  40  10
Pampa TX                   67  96  66  87 /  10  10  30  10
Shamrock TX                69  96  69  91 /  10  10  30  10
Wellington TX              71  98  71  93 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
239 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-060745-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
239 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with increasing chances
this evening into tonight. These chances will range from 60 to 70
percent in the Oklahoma Panhandle to around 20 to 30 percent in
the southern Texas Panhandle. Some of these storms will be strong
to severe with initial threats being hail up to 2 inches in
diameter, 70mph wind gusts and a tornado or two. Late tonight into
the overnight, a line of storms will drop south into the combined
Panhandles and bring the main risk of damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional storms may be possible later Thursday and Friday
afternoons into the evening hours. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe. Thunderstorms will also be possible through the
weekend but severity and coverage potential will be monitored on a
day by day basis.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this evening.

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