Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
256 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

The ridge of jet stream shifts eastward through the CONUS, thus
clearing a path for an upper level trough to slowly transition
east of the four corners region. Today, a surface trough is
orientated across the central Panhandles, while a stationary
surface boundary is set up in the northeast Panhandles. These
upper level circumstances will allow thunderstorm formation for
both days of the short term forecast. As we also expect these
conditions to linger on through Thursday and only shift locally.
Many places across the CWA will have chances for storms, but not
in the same places for both days.

For Wednesday, we are seeing favorable conditions for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the eastern combined
Panhandles. Discrete supercells are forecasted to form along and
infront of the surface trough, and progress towards the
southeast. There are several environmental conditions that are
favoring this kind of strong thunderstorm production. East of the
surface trough, we see 60's and 70's dewpoints. Short term model
guidance is in agreement in high amounts of instability. At the
surface, CAPE is in excess of 5000 J/kg, while MLCAPE is at or
above 4000 J/kg. Winds are veering with height starting from the
surface and at the midlevels effective shear sits between
35-45kts. Earlier forecasts had concerns about high amounts of CIN
in the area, leading today's setup to be more of a conditional
threat. However, latest guidance suggest the cap will erode this
afternoon and thunderstorms could initiate shortly after 3pm.
Storms today will be capable of producing very large hail, up to 5
inches in diameter, straight line wind gust up to 75 mph, and
localized flash flooding in areas where storms will move slowly
over.

Regarding today's tornado threat, hodographs favor crosswise
vorticity during the initial time period. Then later on in the
evening the low level jet is forecasted to increase. Therefore, a
few tornadoes cannot be ruled out in the southeast Texas Panhandle,
especially during the early evening time frame.

By Thursday, lingering low level clouds and possible precipitation
from the morning hours may limit severe potential in the
afternoon. Thunderstorms are still possible in the west if they
can sustain themselves from New Mexico; however, confidence has
lowered for Thursday thunderstorms. So, pops have been decreased
that day as a result.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

A persistent mid to upper level ridge is expected to impact the
south central US through the extended period. However, a shortwave
trough traversing the northern Great Plains Sat into Sun could
suppress the ridge slightly for the FA. This will cool
temperatures down a few degrees, especially for the northern
combined Panhandles Sun into Mon. No one day in the extended
period stands out for more than just slight chance for
thunderstorms with the period looking mostly dry at this time.
There still are some questions about Friday's chances though.

Daytime highs on Friday are progged to be in the upper 80s to the
eastern and northwestern FA, while the southwest Texas Panhandle
is expected to have highs in the low to mid 90s. Deterministic
models do depict some decent QPF possible over portions of the FA for
Fri afternoon into early overnight hours. At this time the NBM
has only given between 10 and 15 pops in the eastern portion of
the FA. Moisture is not the issue, but rather the models are
disagreeing on the lifting mechanism. There will be a chance for
some perturbations in the ridge to help with that, and confidence
is low about if or where this could happen in the area. Have
stayed with the NBM pops for now but will have to keep an eye on
trends going into tomorrow and Friday morning. With slightly
cooler temperatures expected, there appears to be too much CIN at
this time. If convection can be achieved on Friday, would not rule
out some severe storms.

Saturday the ridge strengthens and temperatures are expected to
warm back into the upper 90s and low 100s again, especially in the
southern TX Panhandle. Another Heat Advisory may be needed for
Palo Duro Canyon Saturday afternoon. Late Saturday an H5
shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northern Great
Plains, and is expected to send a frontal boundary south into the
area for Sunday. This boundary may just be an outflow from storms
further north. It is expected to give the combined Panhandles
northerly winds for Sunday holding temperatures back slightly,
especially in the northern half of the combined Panhandles. Going
into Monday the winds are progged to turn to the east and the
upslope nature will help keep the northeastern half to two thirds
of the FA in the upper 80s to lower 90s again. Tuesday triple
digits may return to warm areas of the central to southern TX
Panhandle with PDC flirting with a Heat Advisory again. The NBM
does give mentionable pops to portions of the FA for Tuesday
night. This will all depend on where the center of high pressure
ends up over portions of the south central US.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Thunderstorms could occur at GUY during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. Thunderstorms are not likely at the other
TAF sites for this period, but we could see low clouds impact DHT
in the morning hours. MVFR conditions are expected here, and
possibly at GUY in this time frame. However, low clouds are less
likely to prevail there, so we've left them out of GUY for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  87  67  92 /  20  20  20  10
Beaver OK                  63  83  65  87 /  30  30  30  20
Boise City OK              62  81  62  90 /  20  40  30  10
Borger TX                  67  89  69  95 /  30  20  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              65  89  67  97 /  20  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  65  89  66  95 /  20  20  20  10
Clarendon TX               65  86  67  90 /  30  10  20  10
Dalhart TX                 62  83  63  92 /  20  30  30  10
Guymon OK                  64  82  65  90 /  30  30  30  10
Hereford TX                65  91  67  97 /  10  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                63  84  65  87 /  50  30  20  10
Pampa TX                   65  85  67  89 /  30  20  20  10
Shamrock TX                65  86  67  88 /  50  20  20  10
Wellington TX              66  88  68  90 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...55

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-221100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect through this evening for
Palo Duro Canyon. Heat Indices up to 111 degrees are possible
which could cause heat related illnesses.

The threat of severe thunderstorms through this evening will lead
to the potential for large hail and damaging winds. In addition, the
threat of a tornado cannot be ruled out. A Tornado Watch is in
effect until 10 PM CDT this evening for the central and eastern
Oklahoma Panhandle as well as the eastern half of the Texas
Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms may return during the afternoon and evening hours
both Thursday and Friday. Chances of severe storms is likely with
any developing thunderstorm, bringing large hail and damaging
winds.

Dangerously hot temperatures may be present for Palo Duro Canyon
on Saturday afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
547 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Hail             3 S Morse               36.02N 101.47W
06/21/2023  E1.75 inch       Hutchinson         TX   Law Enforcement

            Pea to golf ball sized hail falling at time
            of report.

&&

AJH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
552 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     Hail             7 N Claude              35.21N 101.36W
06/21/2023  M1.25 inch       Carson             TX   Trained Spotter

            Half dollar sized hail reported by trained
            spotter.

&&

AJH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
602 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     Hail             6 N Goodnight           35.12N 101.19W
06/21/2023  E1.50 inch       Armstrong          TX   Storm Chaser

            Sporadic ping pong sized hail 3 mi N of
            report location about 8 minutes ago.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
608 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     Hail             9 N Goodnight           35.16N 101.19W
06/21/2023  M1.50 inch       Armstrong          TX   Storm Chaser

            Corrects previous report: Sporadic ping pong
            sized hail 3 mi N of report location about 8
            minutes ago.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
613 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     Hail             4 S Claude              35.05N 101.36W
06/21/2023  E2.75 inch       Armstrong          TX   Broadcast Media

            Baseball sized hail reported 4 miles south
            of Claude along Highway 207.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
643 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     Hail             Claude                  35.11N 101.36W
06/21/2023  E2.00 inch       Armstrong          TX   Public

            2 inch hail in Claude. Report received via
            social media.

&&