Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
648 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Severe thunderstorms will be possible to north and northeastern
combined Panhandles. First discrete cells may be possible east of
the dryline mainly impacting the eastern third of the combined
Panhandles. After that, a mid to upper level shortwave trough is
progged to move through the southern Plains helping to form storms
across the northern to northeastern third of the combined
Panhandles going into this evening. The discrete cells if they can
break a small cap will fire off between 4PM and 7PM. The line of
thunderstorms that is progged to move across the northern zones of
the FA, as well as eastern CO and western KS, is expected to be
between 7 PM and 11 PM CDT. Plenty of instability and deep layer
sheer are expected to be in place allowing for the potential for
all severe threats to include a tornado or two to be in play.

For this afternoon, areas in the north to northwestern FA are
expected to reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Areas further
south are expected to approach the low 90s. Winds have currently
been out of the southeast here at the Amarillo Airport as of this
writing. This has kept much of the area under Td's in the upper
50s to lower 60s. However, much of the western to southwestern TX
Panhandle is expected to see a shift in the winds to the southwest
bringing lower Td's and will tighten up a potential dryline just
east of Amarillo. As long as this occurs Amarillo and areas south
and west will be shutoff from any thunderstorm chances
today/tonight. East of this dryline is where there will be a
potential for a discrete storm or two in the late afternoon. Going
into this evening, an H5 shortwave trough is expected to traverse
much of the central to southern Plains. This will bring in a weak
cold front from the Colorado as well. The front intersecting with
the dryline will lead to concerns for possible tornadoes just
like last Thu. Which some spin ups along boundary interactions may
lead to some landspout formations as well. Instability and deep
layer shear will also lead to a potential for hail up to 3" with
these storms.

CAMs suggest that the storms should be out of the combined
Panhandles by 11PM tonight. After that much of the FA will be
under northerly winds that are expected to become even lighter
after midnight and turn back to the west.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

The Panhandles get a much needed reprieve from rain and severe
weather beginning Sunday, but unfortunately will be replaced with
increasing heat through midweek. Zonal flow on Sunday will quickly
give way to amplified ridging by Monday as high pressure builds
over the southern Plains. Temperatures will rise near or into the
90s most days, with localized highs around 100 not unlikely Mon-
Wed. Shortwave troughs could begin to make their way around the
ridge and into the area as early as Tuesday, but the best chance
for storms to return for parts of the area appears to be Wed-Fri
with an emphasis on Thursday.

Although POPs are non-mentionable Tuesday (for good reason given
the low chance for precip to reach the sfc, much less enough to
measure), the potential for dry thunderstorms capable of strong
downburst wind gusts may need to be monitored. 12z GFS forecast
soundings show moistening in the mid to upper levels atop very dry
and warm low levels as a disturbance moves through. With DCAPE
values potentially up to 2000 J/kg thanks to a strong inverted-V
signature, strong wind gusts could try to make their way to the
surface as any precip attempts to fall. This is an outside chance
of occurring and could easily change moving forward, but could be
something worth keeping an eye on.

Wed-Fri, deterministic and ensemble guidance is in fair agreement
that multiple rounds of shortwaves could impinge on ridging and
provide support for convection during this time frame. Rich deep
layer moisture and moderate to strong instability may be in place
for parts of the area on any of these days. Although upper-level
wind fields may not be as impressive as what we've been seeing
recently, sufficient wind shear for organized storms may be in
place as well. As of this forecast period, Thursday appears to
have the best probability (30-40%) for these ingredients to come
together, although the other days may emerge with increased
potential as well (20-30% POPs Wed & Fri). Strength of ridging as
well as concerns with capping and overlap of best ingredients
will be factors to keep in mind moving forward to assess
extent/location of any strong to severe storm potential.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Strong to severe storms are ongoing across much of the northern
Panhandles this evening with persistent VCTS near KGUY. Storms
north of KDHT should stay north and east of the site. Line of
storms Gusts over 40-50 kts will be possible as a line of storms
moves through KGUY within the next hour, clearing the area by
02-03z. Winds will turn north/northwest at 10-15 kts at all sites
by 02z. Winds will become S/SW through the day at 10 kts tomorrow.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  91  61  98 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  56  87  60  97 /  60   0   0   0
Boise City OK              52  87  56  93 /  30   0   0   0
Borger TX                  58  93  65 101 /  30   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              56  92  59  98 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  57  92  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               59  90  63  99 /  30   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 53  88  56  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  54  88  57  97 /  50   0   0   0
Hereford TX                58  93  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                56  88  62  98 /  60   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   57  90  63  98 /  40   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                59  90  61  98 /  40   0   0   0
Wellington TX              61  92  63 101 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
236 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-180745-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
236 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and tonight
across the Oklahoma Panhandle as well as the northern and eastern
half of the Texas Panhandle. Some storms will likely become severe,
with large hail, damaging winds, and possibly isolated tornadoes
the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms may develop Wednesday night, Thursday afternoon,
Thursday night, and Friday afternoon across at least parts of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. If storms develop, a few may
become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds the
primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon and
evening.

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