Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
315 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Based on current water vapor imagery there is a mid to upper level
low spinning over the Los Angeles area of southern CA at the time
of this writing. Upstream is a ridge over the High Plains with a
line of storms stretching from the TX Panhandle all the way up
into southwestern SD. These storms will continue to push east
through this morning. Some storms may pop up on the back side, but
should be more isolated in nature and are not expected to be
severe. Thunderstorm activity is expected to pick up later this
afternoon as the low over southern CA moves up over AZ heading
towards the Four Corners Region.

Today, highs are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s across
the combined Panhandles with some continued influence from a ridge.
Flow aloft will transition to southwesterly on the leading edge
of the mid to upper level trough associated with the
aforementioned low. Perturbations are expected to move up into the
FA, first firing off storms throughout northeastern NM, then
eventually help with storm initiation across western portions of
the FA this afternoon. The overall synoptic pattern will help to
carry showers and thunderstorms into the entirety of the FA
through the overnight period tonight. Models depict a decent axis
of positive theta-e into eastern NM and West Texas, up into
eastern CO and western KS as well this morning. Plenty of moisture
coming in with the south to southeasterly winds today will aid in
supplying some instability for thunderstorms to work with,
potentially making them severe. The transition to southwesterly
flow aloft will also help bring the effective bulk shear back up
to around 30 kts. Especially later into the afternoon when the H5
winds pick up a bit with the leading edge of the trough.
Thunderstorms are expected to be scattered to to widespread along
a line, but could have some strong rotating cells embedded in the
lines coming in from NM.

Overall MUCAPE values are expected to be between 2500-3500 J/Kg
with effective bulk shear maxing out between 25 and 30 kts.
Because of this some of the strongest updrafts today could
potentially produce hail up to golf ball size. Overall storm
motion is expected to be between 15 and 30 kts. However, with the
amount of activity expected late today into the overnight period,
training storms will be possible leading to a concern for a flash
flood potential. WPC does have the western third to half of the
FA, as well as eastern portions of NM highlighted in a slight for
excessive rainfall through 12Z Thursday. PWAT values are progged
to be between 100% and 200% above seasonal normal, especially late
this afternoon into the early evening with initial activity. The
overall severe potential will be in the late afternoon after 3 PM
and before 11 PM tonight.

The combined Panhandles could potentially see a break in showers
and thunderstorms tomorrow morning. With the continued influence
of a mid to upper level trough to the west, rain chances will
continue through much of the day tomorrow though. The trough may
also influence temperatures tomorrow with only some isolated areas
making it into the low 80s, the rest of the area is expected to
be only in the 70s for the daytime high. Thunderstorms in the
afternoon may be a bit more discrete tomorrow, and with similar
CAPE and shear values as today, some severe supercells will be
possible again tomorrow afternoon into evening.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

A persistent wet pattern is expected to continue through the
extended period. With added moisture and influence from troughing
just to the west, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for the daytime high. Overall details for the nature and
best timing for showers and thunderstorms are not quite known at
this time. Severe and flooding potential will need to be
reassessed for each day as time gets closer.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

A thunderstorm is impacting KAMA as of this writing, but should
clear out here real soon. KGUY is seeing some rain still, and
should clear out soon as well. There is a small chance for a
thunderstorm to impact anyone of the terminals through about 18Z.
However, confidence is low and conditions should remain mainly VFR
until closer to 20Z. After 20Z thunderstorms will once again
become prevailing across the combined TX/OK Panhandles and could
last well passed 00Z Thu. Outside of thunderstorms winds are
expected to be 15 to 20 kts out of the south to southeast.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                83  58  75  58 /  40  70  70  30
Beaver OK                  85  59  78  59 /  30  70  60  50
Boise City OK              80  54  74  55 /  50  80  60  40
Borger TX                  87  60  80  60 /  30  70  60  30
Boys Ranch TX              84  58  77  58 /  50  80  70  30
Canyon TX                  83  57  75  57 /  50  80  70  30
Clarendon TX               83  60  77  59 /  10  40  60  40
Dalhart TX                 80  54  73  54 /  50  80  70  40
Guymon OK                  82  58  76  58 /  40  80  60  50
Hereford TX                84  57  76  57 /  50  80  70  20
Lipscomb TX                85  59  78  59 /  20  60  60  50
Pampa TX                   83  59  77  59 /  20  60  60  40
Shamrock TX                85  62  80  60 /  10  40  50  50
Wellington TX              86  63  81  61 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
320 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-312030-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
320 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will possible this morning, and again this afternoon
into the overnight hours. Later this afternoon thunderstorms will
have the potential to become severe with large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated flooding the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible each and every day Thursday through
Tuesday. Some strong to severe thunderstorms with flooding
potential cannot be ruled out at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
321 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

TXZ008-012-013-310845-
Hutchinson TX-Potter TX-Carson TX-
321 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Carson,
southwestern Hutchinson and northeastern Potter Counties through 345
AM CDT...

At 321 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Fritch, or 12 miles southwest of Borger, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Borger, Fritch and Sanford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 10165 3562 10171 3562 10162 3568 10162
      3578 10133 3553 10120
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 247DEG 21KT 3555 10158

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
329 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

TXZ013-014-018-019-310900-
Gray TX-Donley TX-Carson TX-Armstrong TX-
329 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Armstrong, southeastern Carson, southern Gray and Donley Counties
through 400 AM CDT...

At 329 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Goodnight, or 14 miles northwest of Clarendon, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clarendon, Groom, Howardwick, Hedley, Lelia Lake, Lake Mcclellan,
Alanreed, Greenbelt Lake and Goodnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 10120 3519 10122 3536 10063 3479 10057
TIME...MOT...LOC 0829Z 260DEG 24KT 3507 10108

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
358 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

TXZ011-016-310930-
Deaf Smith TX-Oldham TX-
358 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Oldham
and northeastern Deaf Smith Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 358 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Vega, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vega, Simms and Wildorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 10259 3542 10216 3501 10217 3497 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 258DEG 27KT 3527 10250

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
359 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

TXZ013-018-310930-
Carson TX-Armstrong TX-
359 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Armstrong
and Carson Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 359 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Claude, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Panhandle, Claude, White Deer, Groom, Skellytown, Washburn and
Pantex.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 10162 3560 10109 3512 10109 3505 10162
TIME...MOT...LOC 0859Z 258DEG 27KT 3521 10134

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LFM