Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1037 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

The wind and above normal temperatures will be the main story
this weekend. Temperatures today have topped out around the mid
60s to near 70 degrees for many areas with winds around 20 to 25
mph due to lee surface troughing. RFTIs near 3 have been noted
across some of the WTM stations resulting in solid elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions. The latest satellite loop
shows a robust upper level trough moving onshore over the west
coast. This trough is expected to broaden some tonight into
tomorrow as a strong 500mb jet currently near southern CA expands
over the southern plains. The zonal flow aloft (as indicated in
the 12z AMA RAOB) will become more southwesterly by tomorrow as
the trough axis moves across the western CONUS. Stacked jets will
advance into the Texas Panhandle by 12z tomorrow, peaking around
18-21z, then finally shift south of the area by tomorrow night as
the trough axis moves across the area. A surface low will also
strengthen through the day over the Raton Mesa before ejecting
northeast tomorrow afternoon (this will result in falling surface
pressure and a tight pressure gradient across the Panhandles).

The big question concerns the cloud cover and whether or not the
strong winds aloft will be able to mix down. Winds at 700mb should
exceed 50 knots over the area for a good part of the day
tomorrow, so we won't have to mix terribly high to get some strong
winds to the surface. That being said, confidence is not high
enough yet to issue wind products just due to the differences in
model output with cloud cover. The grand ensemble (including ENS,
GEFS, CPC) indicated a 20% to 30 % chance for cloud cover to drop
to scattered in the western zones by noon (70 to 80% chance it
stays mostly cloudy). If clouds do clear out soon enough, we
could easily see a few 50kt gusts tomorrow (especially on the
Caprock). Otherwise, wind gusts may still top out around 40 to 45
knots. Will hold off on making a headline decision for winds at
this time due to the uncertainty with the clouds and collaboration
concerns, but a wind advisory looks like a good bet for the
western zones based on the current wind guidance. A pacific front
will result in some westerly winds in the wake of the surface low,
but the main cold front may stall in our northern zones. Winds
behind the front should be pretty tame based on the track of the
surface low.

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

Temperatures finally cooling down to near average and
precipitation chances are the main highlights of the long term
forecast. Warmer temperatures will stick around through Tuesday
before decreasing back to near average and they should stay that
way through the remainder of the work week. Precipitation chances
are still looking to make a return to the Panhandles Tuesday night
into the daytime on Wednesday.

Zonal flow aloft is forecast to prevail Monday and a majority of
the day on Tuesday. H850 temperatures on Monday will cool off
approximately 5 degrees as westerly to northwesterly surface winds
usher in a slightly cooler airmass. Conditions will be very
similar on Tuesday, with highs above average and light to breezy
surface winds.

The next upper level system is forecast to move onshore across the
western CONUS late on Monday. This system will dig across the
Desert Southwest before lifting up across the Southern Rockies and
Plains mid to late week. Deterministic guidance continues to alter
the evolution of this system every model run, but there is
becoming slightly more consistency in the ensembles that there
could be precipitation for portions of the CWA. The global
ensemble probabilities have at least a 40 percent chance area wide
of having at least a few hundredths of precip with this system, it
obviously is not much, but any precipitation is a welcome change
of pace. As the low pressure system moves off to the east, cooler
air on the backside of the low will move across the forecast area.
Can't rule out any winter precipitation as this occurs in the
northern zones with the wrap around precip on the backside of the
surface low.

This low pressure system will move east of the Southern Plains by
Wednesday night and a subtle ridge will replace the trough across
the area for Thursday. The slightly warmer temperatures for
Thursday will be short lived as troughing across the Rockies will
flatten the ridge early Friday into next weekend.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

For the 06Z TAFs, surface low pressure will continue to intensify
over southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico on Sunday
in advance of a fast moving upper level storm system which is
forecast to track north of our forecast area. Nevertheless, the
corresponding tight surface pressure gradient will cause winds to
increase and become strong and gusty from late Sunday morning
through the afternoon and into the evening hours. An Aviation
Weather Warning will likely be needed for KAMA beginning sometime
Sunday afternoon. In addition, areas of blowing dust are possible
Sunday afternoon. However, confidence is low as to whether or not
the surface visibilities will be impacted at any of the TAF sites
so have omitted at this time. Periods of high level clouds are
also anticipated during this forecast cycle.

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

An incoming upper level storm system will bring strong winds to
the area again tomorrow as stacked jets and a deepening surface
low advance over the plains. Just how strong the winds get will be
determined based on cloud cover, especially for max gust
potential. If mid/high clouds clear out during the afternoon,
winds may quickly mix down resulting in some 55 to 60 mph gusts
(especially on the caprock). If clouds hold in place (as suggested
by about 70% to 80% of the ensembles), then the gust potential
would be lower yet sustained winds could still exceed 25 to 30 mph
due to a deepening surface low. A low level thermal ridge may
also be in play, but it should be weak and perhaps even offset a
bit east of where the stronger winds are expected (there is some
uncertainty based on timing of a pacific front).

As of right now, confidence is high enough that with or without
clouds, RFTIs should be in the 3 to 4 range which does warrant the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch due to the ERCp being over 70
percent.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                43  66  40  60 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  44  68  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              40  61  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  47  69  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              42  66  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  41  66  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               44  69  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 38  62  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  43  65  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                40  66  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                44  68  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   46  68  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                41  69  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              41  70  45  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...02

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
301 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-150915-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
301 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread hazardous weather conditions not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday
afternoon for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued from 11 AM through 7 PM Sunday. Wind gusts
up to 50 to 55 mph are possible in addition to the fire weather
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical fire weather conditions on Sunday afternoon.