Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

392 
WWUS84 KAMA 120145
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
745 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023


OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-120245-
/O.CAN.KAMA.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230112T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
745 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE ENTIRE COMBINED OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES...

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Relative humidity values continue to rise behind the front, and
this will decrease our fire threat. However, wind speeds will
still be strong behind the front through the evening hours.  

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1050 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 154 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

In the immediate term, elevated to occasionally critical fire
weather conditions will continue to be possible in the south central
and southwestern Texas Panhandle as RH values tumble into the 15 to
20 percent range. That being said, conditions have not been quite as
bad as they could have been, as thick cirrus has limited mixing
potential and thus top end winds.

Wednesday is favored to see a step upward in impacts as a strong
upper wave advances quickly from CA to KS. This will drive robust
lee surface cyclogenesis as 80/55/45kt 500/700/850mb winds
overspread the area, resulting in strong winds at the surface. With
these winds having a decidedly downslope west-southwesterly
orientation, in addition to dry conditions today, expect
dewpoints to plummet to perhaps the single digits. Given the
above, have undercut NBM dewpoints using consensus of short term
guidance and have gone toward the high side of consensus and NBM
percentile distributions for winds. Critical fire weather is
likely, as discussed further below. As for exact wind speeds,
progged soundings have trended downward slightly with winds at the
top of the mixed layer, perhaps suggesting peak gusts may remain
below 60 mph. However, with mostly clear skies expected and the
strong winds aloft described above, this is a scenario where peak
gusts could easily overachieve values seen progged at top of the
mixed layer. Have thus elected to continue with the High Wind
Watch.

Wednesday evening into the nighttime hours, cold front crashes
southward. With surface pressure rises of 2-3 mb/hour, strong
winds may continue during this period as well. Have gone with the
high side of guidance winds accordingly and would not be surprised
to see these trend upwards.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

After temperatures return to around normal Thursday in the wake of
the front, conditions return to a bit warmer than average as a
modest slow moving upper ridge shifts east over the central CONUS.
Next period to watch looks to be Sunday into Monday as another
nice upper wave translates downstream. While things could
plausibly trend toward a solution with precip, most guidance at
this time keeps things dry and at least breezy.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

For the 06Z TAFs, winds will increase and become strong and gusty
from the west southwest by late Wednesday morning, continuing
through the afternoon hours. An Aviation Weather Warning will
likely be needed for KAMA on Wednesday afternoon. Periods of high
level clouds are expected across the area. A cold front is
forecast to move across the TAF sites late Wednesday afternoon
into the early evening hours with winds becoming northwesterly to
north northwesterly. Areas of blowing dust are also anticipated
Wednesday afternoon. However, confidence is low whether or not
surface visibilities will be impacted at any one terminal site so
have omitted from the forecast at this time. Winds are expected to
slowly diminish Wednesday evening.

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Solidly critical fire weather conditions are likely Wednesday as
efficient mixing due to clearing skies, a tightening surface
pressure gradient, and a 80/55/45kt 500/700/850mb jet sets up over
the Panhandles, leading to 20 foot winds out of the west at 30 to
40 mph with gusts to around 60 mph. Downslope orientation to these
winds will cause RH values to drop under 20 percent area-wide with
some areas dropping below 15 percent. This will result in RFTI
values of 3 to 6, good enough for solidly critical conditions
given ERC values mainly in the 70th to 89th percentile. All the
above said, while large fires may occur, outbreak conditions are
not expected, as the LLTR looks to be ill defined and displaced
too far to the southeast of the strongest winds.

Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                45  62  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  38  65  27  51 /   0   0  10   0
Boise City OK              37  57  24  51 /   0  10  10   0
Borger TX                  43  66  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              41  63  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  41  62  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               46  67  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 37  59  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  38  62  25  52 /   0  10  10   0
Hereford TX                41  63  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                43  67  29  52 /   0   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   45  65  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                46  70  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              45  72  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ001>020-317.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for TXZ001-002-006>008-011>013-016>019-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...02

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-111200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
639 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Dry and windy conditions on Wednesday will lead to widespread
critical fire weather conditions across the entire combined
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect
for all of the area from 11 AM Wednesday morning until 8 PM
Wednesday evening.

Sustained winds greater than 35 mph may occur Wednesday afternoon,
mainly across central and western portions of the combined
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Wind gusts as high as 60 mph will
be possible as well. A High Wind Watch is in effect from 11 AM
Wednesday morning until 9 PM Wednesday evening across the
southwestern half of the Texas Panhandle.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical fire weather conditions late Wednesday morning through
early Wednesday evening.