Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Amarillo, TX

762 
WWUS84 KAMA 271953
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
253 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-011-016-280100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230328T0100Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Hartley-Oldham-Deaf Smith-
253 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron. In Texas...Dallam... 
  Hartley...Oldham and Deaf Smith.

* 20 Foot Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...3 to 5.

* Timing...Through 8 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

070 
WWUS84 KAMA 280126
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
826 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-011-016-280230-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230328T0100Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Hartley-Oldham-Deaf Smith-
826 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES...

Overall conditions have improved this evening behind the recent 
cold frontal passage. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning issued 
earlier has been allowed to expire at 8 PM CDT. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1216 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Quiet weather will continue through tomorrow night across the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures below freezing are
expected again tonight and the below average highs will continue
tomorrow. Breezy winds are expected during the daytime before a
cold front moves across the Plains on Monday evening.

Early this afternoon, a line of clouds is oriented from southwest
to northeast across the northern Panhandles. There are some radar
returns within this line of clouds, but with the dew point
depression at the surface being in the 25 to 30 degree range, am
not expecting much if any precipitation to be reaching the ground.

Heading towards tonight, zonal flow aloft will continue across
the area and mainly light winds are expected at the surface.
Temperatures should drop below freezing once again tonight given
the light winds. Southerly winds are forecast to at sunrise tomorrow
but will quickly turn westerly as a surface low moves across the
area. Temperatures in the southern TX Panhandle should be able to
warm up into the mid 60s given H850 temperatures warming up to
near 10 to 12 C by peak heating. Dry air will move in from west to
east and with the breezy winds could lead to some elevated fire
weather conditions across the western combined Panhandles tomorrow
afternoon. A surface cold front is forecast to move southward
across the Southern Plains tomorrow afternoon/evening. The front
should be through the entire area by 8 to 10 PM tomorrow evening
and northerly winds could be breezy for a few hours behind the
front. A cooler air mass will remain over the CWA Monday night and
temperatures will be colder than they are forecast to be tonight.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Winds will turn from the north behind a cold front in the morning to
the southeast and south in the afternoon in response to a new lee-
side surface trough.  This lee-side trough will only strengthen into
Wednesday as an upper level trough enters the west coast.

Breezy southerly winds Wednesday night will help to pump low level
moisture into the Panhandles.  Low clouds and possibly some drizzle
may develop late Wednesday night in association with the moisture
advection.  The low clouds and possible drizzle are then expected to
get swept eastward ahead of dryline that will likely be near the
Oklahoma and Texas state line by the end of the afternoon on
Thursday.  How far east the dryline mixes Thursday afternoon will
depend on how deep and how fast the upper level trough, now over the
Great Basin, moves east.  If the upper trough moves slower, then we
could see some afternoon convection in the far eastern Texas
Panhandle.  If the trough moves faster, then we may have to wait
until Thursday night when the dryline backs to the west and collides
with the Pacific front to help produce thunderstorms.  At any rate,
it looks like thunderstorms may only affect areas generally east of
a Canadian to Clarendon line.  But this area could change depending
on the track and depth of the upper level trough.  Winds will likely
get up into the 20 30 mph range with higher gusts to the west of the
dryline on Thursday.  Winds may even be stronger behind the Pacific
front Thursday night and Friday.  Winds will decrease Friday night
into Saturday as the upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Sites are currently VFR and should remain so through the period.
Winds are currently southeasterly and breezy at 12 to 20kts. Winds
will turn towards southwesterly by morning and pickup with gusts
of 20-30kts during the day. A cold front looks to come through
around 21Z to 23Z and turn winds northwesterly to northerly for
the remainder of the period. Winds will strengthen with the front
to have gusts 30-35kts. Winds look to ease back to breezy
conditions with sustained 15kts towards the end of the period.

Beat

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Thursday behind the dryline with critical fire weather conditions
across the much of the area on Friday.  Southwest winds at 20 to 30
mph with higher gusts will be possible on Thursday behind the
dryline with lowest relative humidity values of 10 to 20 percent.
Southwest winds at 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts will be possible
on Friday with lowest relative humidity values around 10 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  25  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  60  21  56  35 /  10  10   0   0
Boise City OK              55  17  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  66  25  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              64  24  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  65  25  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               63  29  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 59  19  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  59  20  54  35 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                66  25  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                61  24  57  35 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   63  25  55  36 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                61  29  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              62  30  58  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
225 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-270730-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
225 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in the west on
Monday. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across the area Thursday into Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible in the far southeast Texas
Panhandle Thursday afternoon into the evening. Some storms may be
strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions Monday and again
Thursday into Friday.