Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Two additional rounds of severe thunderstorm and localized flood
potential are ahead during the evening and early overnight hours
both Thursday and Friday. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary concerns both days with flooding concerns focused on
developed areas and locations that have already received multiple
rounds of rainfall.

19z WV satellite readily shows two shortwaves of interest - one over
W OK and the other over the Sangre de Cristos. Visible satellite
shows and expanding field of flat cumulus. Surface observations show
temperatures mainly in the 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

This afternoon into tonight, expect another round of convection. Due
to the aforementioned cumulus field remaining flat thus far,
suppressed ascent in the eastern Panhandles due to the influence of
the W OK shortwave, and the later arrival of the shortwave to our
west, expect convection to largely hold off until after 7pm, when
thunderstorms look to spread northwest to southeast across the CWA.
This outcome is in line with many consecutive runs of the HRRR,
latest NSSL WoFS convective allowing ensemble, and 12z NAM. Have
moved away from NBM PoPs toward the HRRR as NBM PoPs seem to be
heavily contaminated by GFS/RAP which suggest light showers and/or
drizzle have been occurring all day in the eastern Panhandles, an
outcome which has almost totally failed to be borne out. As for
potential hazards, with MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk
shear values of around 30 knots, severe thunderstorms could occur.
That said, the low end supportive shear should limit the overall top
end severe potential to around golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind
gusts. Due to the late arrival of convection, while cold pool
dynamics could still force down a severe wind gust, surface
stabilization should lead to a very slim tornado risk. Finally,
given PWAT values of 1"+ and slow expected storm motions, localized
flooding could occur in cities and town and in locations that have
received heavier rain on previous days.

Tomorrow, with a weak upper ridge reducing in prominence, expect an
uptick in wind speeds aloft. Thus, while the pattern looks to be
similar to today in which a later arriving shortwave leads to
thunderstorms generally occurring after 7pm, increase in shear may
lead to a bit higher top end severe potential compared to Thursday,
with hailstones greater than 2" in diameter possible and a small
risk for tornadoes, particularly if convection arrives closer to 7pm
rather than later for optimal timing with respect to surface
stabilization and the increase in the LLJ. While storm motions
should also be a bit quicker, rich moisture and antecedent
conditions suggest a continued risk for localized flooding.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Showers and thunderstorms look like a pretty good bet on Saturday as
the flow aloft strengthens and another short wave trough moves over
the region in the southwest flow aloft.  Rain chances may actually
decrease some Sunday through Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds
over the area.  Any short waves will be weaker and the shear will be
weaker, so coverage of storms are expected to go down during these
days.  Not to say that we will not have any rain at all.  We just
are not expecting a large complex of storms to move across the area
without the upper level support.  Showers and storms may become more
widespread again by next Wednesday as the upper level southwest flow
increase again.  Another stronger short wave trough may also move
over on Wednesday.

Highs will generally remain slightly below normal in the 70's and
lower 80's Saturday through next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Watching KAMA closely to start the TAF period. Between 06-08Z,
TSRA will be expected with erratic winds possible. VCTS conditions
for KDHT/KGUY at that time as well, Past 08-09Z, conditions should
dry out. However, low cigs of MVFR to at times IFR are possible
throughout the day. PROB30 group for TSRA returns around 00Z and
continues towards the end of the TAF for all TAF sites where
heavy rainfall and erratic winds will be possible.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  58  74  58 /  60  50  60  40
Beaver OK                  74  58  76  58 /  60  50  60  30
Boise City OK              72  55  74  55 /  40  50  40  30
Borger TX                  73  60  78  60 /  60  60  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              75  59  77  58 /  50  70  50  30
Canyon TX                  72  58  75  57 /  60  50  60  40
Clarendon TX               74  59  73  59 /  60  50  50  40
Dalhart TX                 71  55  74  54 /  50  70  50  30
Guymon OK                  72  57  75  57 /  30  60  50  40
Hereford TX                73  57  76  57 /  50  60  60  40
Lipscomb TX                75  57  75  57 /  60  50  50  30
Pampa TX                   71  58  74  58 /  60  50  60  30
Shamrock TX                74  59  75  59 /  60  40  50  40
Wellington TX              77  59  77  59 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
253 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-261000-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
253 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected this evening into
tonight across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A few storms in
the western Panhandles may become strong to severe, with large
hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. In addition, the
strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
which may lead to flooding or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A few storms may become strong
to severe both days, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. In addition, the strongest storms will have the potential
to produce very heavy rainfall, which may lead to flooding or flash
flooding.

More thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Wednesday across
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A few storms may become strong
to severe on any of those days, with large hail and damaging winds
the primary hazards at this time. Also, the strongest storms will
be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to flooding
or flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
920 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

TXZ001-006-260245-
Hartley TX-Dallam TX-
920 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Dallam
and northwestern Hartley Counties through 945 PM CDT...

At 919 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Sedan, or 11 miles north of Amistad, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Dallam
and northwestern Hartley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 10304 3639 10295 3620 10271 3597 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 222DEG 26KT 3608 10309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
948 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     HAIL             16 S TEXLINE            36.14N 103.02W
05/25/2023  M1.50 INCH       DALLAM             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

TXZ011-012-260615-
Potter TX-Oldham TX-
1238 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Oldham and
west central Potter Counties through 115 AM CDT...

At 1238 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Boys Ranch, or 11 miles north of Vega, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Boys Ranch and Valley De Oro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 10241 3550 10203 3518 10232 3547 10256
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 314DEG 18KT 3541 10235

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DGW