Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
527 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Summary: Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected later this
afternoon through this evening across the Panhandles. All severe
hazards are possible, including hail up to or exceeding 2" early on,
and potentially widespread damaging winds this evening with some
gusts up to 80 mph possible. Strong to severe thunderstorms may be
possible Saturday, though that is highly conditional upon sufficient
destabilization.

Details: The special 18z sounding shows the atmosphere is,
unsurprisingly, still capped. There is still a decent layer of low-
level moisture below an inversion associated with the beginning of a
stout EML. There is impressive low-level shear along with favorable
deep-layer shear for organized severe weather.

Continued destabilization is expected across the area, though dew
points are sticking around in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
As recent as the 17z HRRR and RAP runs continue to overestimate the
effects of mixing on the surface dew points. Observed dew points are
sticking to around 67 degrees while HRRR and RAP suggest it should
be 3-6 degrees lower. Therefore, expecting LCLs to be lower and
instability to be higher than the near-term models depict.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the western combined
Panhandles, likely along a surface wind convergence boundary, around
3-4 PM. There will be enough shear for thunderstorms to become
supercellular which may produce hail up to or exceeding 2" in
diameter. A tornado or two will also be possible, especially in the
north where stronger low-level shear is expected. Upscale growth
into an MCS is eventually expected. The large hail threat will lower
some in this stage but there will be an increased threat for
potentially widespread damaging winds, including gusts up to 80 mph.
A tornado or two will be possible in this stage as well. The MCS is
expected to leave the area late this evening.

There is a low chance for additional thunderstorm development later
this afternoon in the eastern Texas Panhandle where a boundary may
set up and be a focus for discrete thunderstorm development. Visible
satellite is showing the development of streaks of low-level clouds
around early this afternoon. If thunderstorm development does occur,
a supercell would be favored with all hazards possible including
hail up to or exceeding 2".

Saturday: The overall setup doesn't change much. However, today's
severe weather is expected to aggressively stabilize the atmosphere
such that it is very uncertain whether it will be able to
destabilize enough by Saturday evening. If it does, all severe
hazards would be possible again. But given the uncertainty in
sufficient destabilization, will opt to focus on today's severe
weather potential and re-assess the situation in future forecast
packages.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Additional chances for rain returns to the Panhandles, but it may
not be as widespread. While some areas may get additional
rainfall, others areas will begin to dry out with temperatures on
the rise.

As the center of the main H500 high pressure system slowly shifts
north into central New Mexico, additional areas of thunderstorms
are expected Sunday and Monday. Perturbations associated with
ridge rollers, along with any residual surface boundaries from
previous areas of convection and/or a stalled front will act as a
catalyst for additional diurnally driven convection. In
particular for Sunday and Sunday night, storms could be severe
with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main threat.
High temperatures will be near to slightly below average,
especially in the northern Panhandles where areas north of the
stalled front will experience slightly below average
temperatures.

A small break in the precipitation chances should come mid week
as latest 07/12Z model and numerical data shows the eastern extent
of the main H500 high into the Panhandles. Large scale subsidence
aloft should minimize rain chances and warm temperatures up. High
temperatures Tues-Thur will range from mid 90s to 100-104. As
main H500 high shifts further back to the west, NW H500 flow
returns and so do our rain chances, favoring the northern
Panhandles.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently working
through the combined OK/TX Panhandles from west to east. Even
after this line leaves the Panhandles by 03Z there will still be
scattered showers/tstorms that may impact the terminals through
12Z for KAMA and KGUY, 10Z for KDHT. Gusty winds possibly in
excess of 40 kts will be possible with the line of thunderstorms
that is now east of KDHT. Low clouds may move into the north
impacting KGUY towards 10Z. However, confidence is low at this
time and not in the TAF at this time. This will need to be
reassessed during the next TAF issuances.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  87  65  85 /  40  10  40  10
Beaver OK                  63  78  60  77 /  70  10  70  20
Boise City OK              60  77  59  78 /  50  10  60  10
Borger TX                  65  85  65  86 /  50  10  50  10
Boys Ranch TX              65  88  66  88 /  30  10  30   0
Canyon TX                  65  89  65  87 /  40  10  30   0
Clarendon TX               68  87  66  83 /  50  10  40  10
Dalhart TX                 62  81  61  82 /  30  10  40   0
Guymon OK                  62  77  60  77 /  40  10  70  10
Hereford TX                65  91  66  91 /  30  10  20   0
Lipscomb TX                63  79  60  78 /  70  10  70  30
Pampa TX                   65  82  64  81 /  70  10  60  20
Shamrock TX                66  86  64  83 /  60  10  50  20
Wellington TX              68  90  66  86 /  50  10  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...36

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-081100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop this
afternoon and tonight across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
Some storms may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds
the primary hazards. Also, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Heavy rainfall will likely accompany the strongest storms, which
may lead to flooding or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the area Saturday
afternoon through Monday night. Some storms will have the potential
to become severe during this time period, with large hail and
damaging winds the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall
will likely accompany the strongest storms, which may lead to
flooding or flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and this
evening.

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