Wind Advisory 5, NWS Albany, NY

334 
WWUS71 KALY 251919
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
319 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

NYZ032-033-VTZ013-014-260400-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230326T0400Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, Wells, Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, 
Pownal, Stratton, and Londonderry
319 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In New York, Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. 
  In Vermont, Bennington and Western Windham Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

782 
WWUS71 KALY 260247
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1047 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

NYZ032-033-VTZ013-014-260400-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230326T0400Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, Wells, Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, 
Pownal, Stratton, and Londonderry
1047 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The Wind Advisory for northern Herkimer, Hamilton, Bennington and
western Windham counties has been cancelled.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
153 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring partly to mostly clear and
dry weather into the overnight hours with clouds increasing
toward daybreak. A storm system will push across the region on
Saturday with periods of rain, snow and a wintry mix. Only a
light accumulation of snow, sleet and ice is expected, mainly
for the higher elevations. Wrap around snow showers will come to
an end on Sunday, mainly across the Adirondacks, with mainly
dry weather elsewhere. Windy conditions are expected on Sunday
as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Ridging across the region at the surface and aloft is shifting
eastward with cirrus streaming overhead in advance of the
approaching system for the weekend. Clouds will thicken and
lower overnight with temperatures dropping just a bit more. Only
some minor adjustments were needed.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High pressure will remain overhead into
the early overnight hours resulting in continued mostly clear to
partly cloudy conditions. This, combined with winds turning
light and variable, should result in a period of ideal
radiational cooling conditions before clouds increase and
thicken closer to daybreak as our system approaches from the
south. We went slightly below NBM guidance for lows tonight.
Lows will be in the 20s to around 30 in most areas with some
upper teens in portions of the Adirondacks and southern Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An area of low pressure will track northeastward across the
Great Lakes on Saturday as a warm front lifts northward across
the area during the morning and early afternoon hours. High
pressure will slide off to the east during the day on Saturday.

Isentropic lift along and ahead of the warm front accompanied by
a 40-60 kt southwesterly low-level jet will support an area of
precipitation across much of the region. Precipitation will
start close to or shortly after daybreak across southern areas
and continue to advance northward through the morning and into
the early afternoon hours. Thermal profiles will determine
precipitation type for each region. There will be a warm nose
aloft within the 800-700 hPa layer while the high to the north
and east supplies the region with a cold pocket aloft between
850-925 hPa. This will supply the region with all possible
precipitation types including snow, rain, sleet and freezing
rain. Wintry precipitation will be mainly favored across the
higher elevations but can occur briefly in the valleys as well.
The majority of the precipitation in the valleys will be in the
form of rain.

By the afternoon hours, a mid-level dry slot looks to punch into
the region which should begin to decrease the coverage of
precipitation. Still, some areas of rain with areas of higher
elevation sleet and/or freezing rain will remain possible during
this time.

Wintry precipitation amounts will be light with little or no
accumulation of snow and sleet in the valleys and a coating to
2 inches across the higher terrain. Only patchy light glazes of
freezing rain is expected for the higher elevations. With this
system occurring during the daytime hours along with a high sun
angle this time of year, overall impacts should be minimal. As
a result, no winter weather advisories will be issued with this
update. However, anyone traveling on Saturday should be on
alert and adjust to changing weather conditions.

By the evening hours, the system's occluded front will push
across the region. It is not out of the question that some weak
elevated instability develops as a broken convective band or
multiple bands of showers push across the region from west to
east. As a result, a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but
the confidence on this is too low to include in the forecast at
this time. In the wake of the front, some wrap-around snow
showers will occur across portions of the Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley through Sunday morning before gradually
tapering off as high pressure builds in during the afternoon and
overnight hours. Mainly dry weather is expected elsewhere on
Sunday. Windy conditions will develop on Sunday with widespread
gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Wind will subside Sunday night as
the pressure gradient weakens.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled conditions with somewhat below normal temperatures are
expected through much of the long term, with the possibility of
a storm system bringing significant precipitation for Tuesday-
Wednesday time frame. Several 12Z/24 GEFs members and
deterministic GEM suggest quicker phasing of northern/southern
stream impulses, resulting in rapid cyclogenesis off NJ coast
late Tue or Wed, while EC and some GEFs members remain more
progressive/unphased with a weaker, northern stream impulse.
Either way, looks like chance PoPs warranted per NBM for Mon-
Wed, although Mon precipitation could be quite spotty. Trends
will need to be watched, as a stronger system with greater
impacts to the region remain possible late Tue into Wed, with
perhaps a period of snow or rain/snow mix for portions of the
region.

Fair weather should return by Thu into early Fri, before next
system brings increasing clouds and possible precipitation late
Fri or Fri night.

Daytime highs mainly in the 40s in valleys, 30s across higher
terrain, although could be slightly colder Tue-Wed if
significant precipitation occurs. Overnight lows mainly in the
20s to lower 30s, perhaps slightly colder if any clearing occurs
across the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday....Main weather concerns to the terminals during
the 06z TAF cycle includes: 1) MVFR-IFR cigs and/or visibilities due
to a wintry mix from the incoming storm system, 2) breezy
southeasterly winds during the day today, and 3) the potential for
borderline LLWS especially over KPSF/KPOU around daybreak or
just before winds pick up.

Conditions as of this update are currently VFR with some SCT high
level (cirrus) clouds overhead and unrestricted visibilities. Expect
for these clouds to thicken and lower in elevation overnight into
this morning in response to an approaching storm system.
Precipitation is expected to begin after daybreak between 15z-17z
from south to north. It will be cold enough for precipitation to
start of as snow/sleet before transitioning over to a rain/snow mix
and eventually over to all rain. The best chance for the wintry mix
to persist the longest will be over KPSF due to it's elevation. As
precipitation moves in, expect for flight categories to deteriorate
to MVFR/IFR levels. There could even be LIFR levels at times.
Precipitation should begin to wind down with decreasing coverage
by this evening/tonight.

Light and variable winds will continue through the overnight hours
before developing out of the southeast by morning at 5-10 kts. It
will become windy during the afternoon hours with southeast winds
picking up 10-15 kts and gusting 30-35 kts, especially at KALB and
KPSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Evbuoma

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
331 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-251100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
331 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A storm system is expected to bring snow, rain, and a wintry mix to
the region Saturday into early Sunday. A light accumulation of snow
and sleet as well as ice is expected for areas mainly above 1000
feet. Travel impacts will be limited due to precipitation falling
during the day and on warmer surfaces. However, some localized
slippery travel may be possible, especially across the higher
terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.