Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
806 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the
region late this afternoon through this evening. Some of
thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail along with very heavy rainfall, which may lead to instances of
flash flooding in some areas.  The cold front will stall near
eastern New York tomorrow with more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The weather pattern remains unsettled for the
upcoming weekend with additional showers and thunderstorms,
especially Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 749 PM EDT...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 has been extended until 10 pm for
all of eastern NY except Hamilton, Herkimer, and Fulton Counties
and western New England...

Flood Watch for western New England, the southern Adirondacks, Lake
George Saratoga Region, and the Taconics until 6 am Friday....

The forecast area has endured the wrath of a QLCS that is in
the process of merging with some discrete supercellular
convection that has drift north/northeast up the Hudson River
Valley. We have reports of widespread wind damage across
portions of Washington, Warren, Saratoga and Montgomery
Counties. Ground truth continues to come in. Substantial
instability remains in place and we just coordinated with SPC
for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch extension until 10 PM. We did
cancel Hamilton, Herkimer and Fulton Counties. MLCAPES are in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range along and south and east of the Greater
Capital Region based on the latest RAP Mesoanalysis with 30-40
KT of effective bulk shear in place. The severe threat will
continue the next few hours and diminish. We did issue a Flash
Flood Warning for portions of eastern Greene and Columbia
Counties where rainfall estimates of 1-2+/hr occurred with a
cluster of strong to severe convection. No tornado reports but
some mesocyclonic rotation and funnels. Temps have rapidly
cooled into the 60s with the squall line.

PREV DISCUSSION [0450 PM EDT]....

KENX radar shows a line of severe thunderstorms moving northwest to
southeast across the Western Adirondacks ahead of a cool frontal
boundary set to slowly progress through the region through tomorrow.
Pop-up thunderstorms, too, have developed out ahead of this line,
mainly in the Upper-Hudson Valley, whose conditions have warranted
multiple severe thunderstorm warnings already this afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms embedded within the aforementioned line will
continue to progress across the region from northwest to southeast
throughout the afternoon and evening, supported through ample
instability (SBCAPE on the order of >= 2000 J/kg) and
frontogenetical forcing. Southerly flow will persist, perpetually
providing the fuel necessary to yield locally heavy downpours that
could accumulate 1-2" of rain especially in the Western Adirondacks,
Upper-Hudson Valley, southern Vermont, the Berkshires, Taconics, and
Northwest Connecticut.

Several threats and impacts can be expected with storms this
afternoon, the primary being damaging winds. This morning, the Storm
Prediction Center upgraded portions of the forecast area (Western
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Upper-Hudson Valley, Schoharie Valley)
to an Enhanced Risk for severe weather due to the categorical wind
threat. Strong vertical motion (0-6 km shear increasing to ~35 kt)
paired with DCAPE values of about 1200 J/kg will support damaging
wind gusts along the storm line. Any bowing within storms (that has
been hinted at in latest CAM guidance especially in the Upper-Hudson
Valley) may very well lead to severe straight line winds. Power
outages as a result of severe wind gusts are likely.

Another threat from these storms is flash flooding. With PWATs on
the order of 1.5" to near 2", precipitation loading could certainly
play a significant role in locally heavy downpours resulting in
flash flooding especially in the areas enclosed within the Flood
Watch. Outside of the Watch, flash flooding becomes less of a
threat, though moderate to heavy rain will likely lead to poor-
drainage flooding and ponding of water especially throughout urban
areas.

The Storm Prediction Center also has an increased risk of large hail
and tornadoes. Strength of vertical ascent paired with relatively
cool air aloft have increased the threat for large hail especially
within the region of the Enhanced Risk. Tornadoes, though
probability of occurrence is much less than damaging wind and hail,
are also very possible. Elevated shear and 0-3 km SRH values of 200-
250 m2/s2 have increased the risk of some brief, spin-up tornadoes.
Any tornadoes that form are not expected to be significant.

Thunderstorms will significantly weaken with the loss of diurnal
heating, though persistence of elevated instability will sustain the
possibility of rumbles of thunder after sundown as the line moves
south and east of Albany. Convection should cease by 2 AM, but a
lingering shower or two in the Hudson Valley cannot be ruled out.
Then, sky cover will look to improve throughout the night, yielding
low temperatures in the 60s with upper 50s in the Western
Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...The cold front will still be over eastern NY and
western New England. A weak wave will be moving along the
boundary rekindling the showers and thunderstorms. PWATs will be
running 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal with values in the 1.5-2.0"
range especially south and east of the Capital Region based on
the latest NAEFS. Some of the thunderstorms could be on the
stronger side as the 12Z HREFS has mean SBCAPEs of 1000-2000+
J/kg from the Capital Region, eastern Catskills and southern VT
south and east. 0-6 km shear values of 30-35 KT are located
south and east of ALY. The severe threat will depend on the
degree of heating lingering clouds throughout the day. The
Marginal Risk looks pretty good south and east of Albany from
SPC. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding may also
linger with backbuilding and training showers and thunderstorms.
We may need to extend for expand the Flood Watch or issue a
brand new one after the strong to severe thunderstorms today.
Max temps will 80-85F in the lower elevations and across NW CT
and 70s to around 80F over the higher terrain. It will remain
sticky with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s with a few upper
50s over the southern Dacks.

The showers and thunderstorms diminish early in the evening
prior to midnight, as the weak sfc wave moves northeast and the
cold front dips to the southeast. It will be a muggy night with
a micro high/ridge moving into the region. Some patchy fog will
be possible and light rain showers may persist east of the
Hudson River Valley. Lows will be in the 60s with some upper 50s
over the southern Dacks, southern Greens and eastern Catskills.

Saturday...Persistent mid and upper level southwest flow
will continue over eastern NY and western New England on the
eastern flank of the mid and upper level trough. Another short-
wave impulse will approach during the afternoon from the lower
Great Lakes, OH and PA. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the afternoon. It will be a
steamy day with some sunshine mixed with clouds. Highs will
range from the mid 80s to around 90F in the major valleys and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the higher terrain. The better
synoptic lift with the approaching short-wave arrives from the
southwest to northeast at night. PWATS remain above normal high
chance and low likely POPs were continued with a chance of
thunderstorms with some elevated instability Lows will be balmy
for mid July with 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wet conditions close the upcoming weekend, but their light at
the end of the tunnel for a period of some drier weather towards
the middle of next week.

A closed/cutoff low over southwest Ontario and the Upper Great
Lakes Region embedded in a sprawling mid and upper level trough
will continue to plague the forecast area with periods of
showers and thunderstorms to close the weekend. Strong
isentropic lift occurs ahead of a wave and warm front to close
the weekend for periods of showers and a chance of
thunderstorms. PWATS remain above normal and soils are saturated
in spots, so will have to monitor for possible flash flooding.
Max temps will be near normal with 70s to lower 80s. The cold
front moves across most of the region Sunday night with a
continued threat of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows fall back into the 60s with a few upper 50s
over the southern Dacks.

A secondary cold front moves moves through Monday through
Tuesday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Coverage looks less than the weekend. High pressure builds in
Wednesday with drier weather and slightly lower humidity levels.
Temps will be near to slightly above normal Monday through
Wednesday. Clouds increase Thu from the south and some showers
or isolated thunderstorms may impact locations south and east of
Albany. Overall...the Day 8 to 14 Temp and Pcpn Outlook from CPC
continues to call for near normal temps and above normal pcpn
for the 3rd to 4 week of July for the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...Strong thunderstorms are still present
throughout the forecast area, though KGFL and KALB have seen the
last of their convective activity for the day. Currently, some
lingering showers and distant thunderstorms exist for these
terminals, but all precipitation will likely be over within the
next hour or two. Current radar shows KPSF currently being hit
by thunderstorms that will keep its conditions in the IFR-LIFR
category for at least the next couple hours. KPOU may luck out
without thunder, but some showers will likely grace the terminal
within the next few hours as well.

Behind the convection, skies are clearing and ceilings are
expected to dissipate overnight. However, persistence of
elevated RH, saturated soils from locally heavy rain and
decreasing wind speeds will likely contribute to some mist and
fog overnight. The more likely terminals to see mist/fog are
KGFL and KPSF, though lighter mist at KALB cannot be ruled out.
KPOU is not expected to leave the VFR threshold once showers
move through there later this evening.

Skies will remain mostly clear through tomorrow morning before
ceilings develop ahead of another possible round of showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow. Convection will not be as widespread,
however, and with confidence in spatial spread not great at the
time of this update, kept afternoon precipitation out of the
TAFs until a later update.

Winds are decreasing throughout the area now, yielding mainly
southeasterly winds on the order of magnitude of 6-10 kt. KPSF
and KPOU still have intermittent gusts upwards of 20 kt.
Throughout the period, winds will continue to decrease and turn
more northerly with sustained speeds of 3-7 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch for possible flash flooding remains in effect for
the southern and western Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga
Region, the Taconics, Berkshires, Litchfield County and
southern Vermont into tonight.

Areas within the Flood Watch will be seeing a line of heavy
showers and thunderstorms move west to east across the area this
afternoon into the late evening hours. The activity may take
its time as it moves through the area, as the flow aloft (SSW)
is nearly parallel to the expected line of storms. Hourly rates
will be in the 1 to 2 inch range. SPC HREF shows storm-total
mean amounts of 1-3 inches (although probability match mean,
which keep some heavier outliers within the envelope, suggests
some higher-end amounts of 3 to 5 inches). With the ground
saturated due to the recent rainfall/flooding, much of the
precip will be runoff and may easily lead to additional flooding
concerns (especially in parts of the central Adirondacks and in
southern VT). With 3 hr FFG generally under 2 inches across
northern areas, flash flooding is certainly possible with this
activity late today into this evening. Road wash outs would be
most likely impact, although some higher-end impacts could occur
if those 4-5 inch amounts are realized.

After rainfall diminishes late tonight, another round of showers
and storms looks to occur Fri afternoon and evening, although
this would likely be further south and east of Thursday's
activity. High rainfall rates could lead to some additional
flooding concerns and another flood watch could be needed for
additional parts of the area.

More showers and thunderstorms over the weekend could lead to
additional hydro concerns, mainly for Sunday. This will come
into better focus over the next few days.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes,
including observed and forecast river stages and lake
elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Friday for NYZ032-033-041>043-054-
     061-066-083-084.
MA...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Friday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Friday for VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Gant
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
759 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041>043-054-061-066-083-084-VTZ013>015-
141100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Eastern Rensselaer-Eastern Columbia-
Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
759 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, portions of eastern New York and southern
Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 pm EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There will continue to be a chance of thunderstorms each day Friday
through Sunday and again on Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms on Friday. Damaging winds will be the main threat with
any storms.

Also, The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
for excessive rainfall for the area on Friday, Saturday and Sunday
as well. Heavy downpours from additional showers and thunderstorms
may lead to localized flooding concerns on these days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures to the National
Weather Service.

NYZ040-047>053-058>060-063>065-141100-
Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-
Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Western Ulster-
Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
759 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 pm EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There will continue to be a chance of thunderstorms each day Friday
through Sunday and again on Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms across the mid Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills on
Friday. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any storms.

Also, The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
for excessive rainfall for the area on Friday, Saturday and Sunday
as well. Heavy downpours from additional showers and thunderstorms
may lead to localized flooding concerns on these days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures to the National
Weather Service.

NYZ032-033-141100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
759 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There will continue to be a chance of thunderstorms each day Friday
through Sunday and again on Tuesday.

The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk for
excessive rainfall for much of the area on Friday, Saturday and
Sunday as well. Heavy downpours from additional showers and
thunderstorms may lead to localized flooding concerns on these days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures to the National
Weather Service.

NYZ038-039-082-141100-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Northern Fulton-
759 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Herkimer and Fulton
Counties in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No widespread hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There will continue to be a chance of thunderstorms each day Friday
through Sunday and again on Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms across the mid Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills on
Friday. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any storms.

Also, The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
for excessive rainfall for the area on Friday, Saturday and Sunday
as well. Heavy downpours from additional showers and thunderstorms
may lead to localized flooding concerns on these days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures to the National
Weather Service.

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