Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
340 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds and
small hail, will taper off by later this evening.  Much cooler
temperatures are expected this weekend, with some lingering clouds
for Saturday. It will remain cool for next week, with some
additional showers during the middle of the week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 340 PM EDT...Large upper level ridge has retrograded
westward and is now centered over lower Michigan. Meanwhile, an
upper level disturbance is located well northeast of the region
over Quebec and Labrador and this will be dropping southward
towards the region for tonight into the weekend.

Visible satellite and radar imagery shows two broken lines of
showers and thunderstorms. One line extends from the southern
Adirondacks southward across the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys
and into the eastern Catskills. Meanwhile, the second line is
situated across the Berkshires and NW CT. In between, mainly dry
conditions have been persisting for the Hudson Valley. Showers
and thunderstorms have been moving north to south across the
area, with some showers and storms passing over the same
locations more than once.   Activity may eventually spread
towards parts of the Hudson Valley towards the evening, but this
is still somewhat uncertain and some areas within the Capital
Region won't see any of this much needed rainfall today.

Surface temps warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s in many
valley areas, with 80s over the high terrain. Surface dewpoints
are a little higher than recent days as well, with values
reaching the upper 50s to near 60. With the warm and more humid
air mass in place, there has been abundant instability in place
today. SPC mesoanalysis shows around 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE with
mid level lapse rates around 6.5 deg/km. The low level lapse
rates are also quite steep due to the strong surface heating.
Meanwhile, bulk shear is rather limited (under 20 kts), due to
the upper level disturbance still being quite far away. Because
of this, storms have been fairly disorganized. They pulse up
rather quickly, but then diminish back down pretty fast as well.
Some storms have produced small hail today and a few also have
produced gusty winds, which makes sense due to the inverted v
sounding. Through the evening hours, some additional reports of
small hail are possible and a rogue downed tree can't be ruled
out as well as the storms continue to move southward across the
region.

Some storms have produced heavy rainfall within a short period
of time. Although it has been dry lately, some spots (mainly in
western New England) have seen 2 to 3 inches of rain. This could
lead to some minor poor drainage or urban flooding, although
many areas can certainly use the rainfall. If heavy rainfall
does reoccur over an urbanized areas (such as North Adams), an
isolated flash flood cannot be ruled out.

Showers and thunderstorms may linger into the evening hours, but
should start to wane by later in the evening with the loss of
daytime heating. CAMs suggest activity will be winding down
towards midnight, as the backdoor boundary starts dropping in
from the north and starts pushing through the area.

Behind the backdoor boundary, temps will rapidly drop. After
such a warm day, overnight lows will fall into the 50s in many
areas by daybreak Saturday. Some clearing may finally start to
occur by late in the night for the Adirondacks, but clouds may
linger across the remainder of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Large upper upper level low will be dropping across northern and
eastern New England on Saturday before shifting offshore and
spinning just south of southern New England for Sunday.

The cyclonic flow will keep plenty of clouds around for the
start of the day on Saturday, but some partial clearing looks to
occur by Saturday afternoon or evening, especially for western
areas. A lingering shower or two can't be ruled out on Saturday
morning, but most areas will see no precip, as the most activity
should be over New England. After skies clear out on Saturday
night, it should be fairly sunny on Sunday, as drier air works
its way southward on the backside of the departing upper level
low.

With the much lower heights and cooler temps aloft, it will be
much cooler for the weekend. Highs will only be in the 60s to
low 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will be in
the 40s for both Sat night and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Our area will be behind the departing upper level low on Monday
with a partly sunny sky. Temps will be a little closer to normal
with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Northern areas will start
to see some clouds increase by late in the day as the next
system starts to approach.

Another large upper level low will drop across the area from
Quebec for the middle of the week. This upper level system will
drop directly over the area, so there will be a better chance
for precip with this one, as compared to the weekend. Cyclonic
flow showers are possible both Tues/Wed, especially during the
diurnally favored afternoon and evening hours. There could be a
rumble of thunder in spots as well, so will mention a slight chc
for thunder. With the cool temps aloft, as well as the
clouds/precip, temps will be below normal for Tues/Wed, with
highs only in the 60s to low 70s.

Some improvement is possible by Thursday or Friday as this
system starts to move away. Precip chances will be lowering as
the forcing heads away from the area and temps will start
working their way back closer to normal by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z/Sat...A cold front will push through the area this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the remainder of the afternoon. Latest thinking
is for storms to remain mainly confined to the higher elevations
outside of the Hudson Valley, so reduced KALB/KGFL to just VCSH
for this evening. Still could have some thunderstorms close to
or over KPOU/KPSF so kept the TEMPO for this update. Flight
categories will be in the VFR range outside of storms with
MVFR/IFR conditions in any showers/storms.

This evening, a few showers could occur regionwide along the
cold front, so maintained VCSH at this time. Cigs may lower to
at least MVFR levels at all sites tonight with some brief IFR
possible. Mainly dry weather then returns overnight into
Saturday morning with cigs slowly lifting. Some sites may return
to VFR conditions by 18z/Sat.

Wind will be mainly north to northeasterly through the TAF
period at 10 kt or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun

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