Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
414 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will approach from the west tonight. The
system will stall across the region Friday and linger through
the weekend keeping the forecast unsettled with showers and
thunderstorms especially during the afternoon into the evening.
Some storms may become severe producing damaging wind gusts and
possibly large hail into this evening and again Friday afternoon
into the evening. In addition, storms will be capable of
locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #673 is in effect until 9 pm for
eastern NY.

Heat Advisory in effect today until 7 PM for the Mohawk and
Hudson Valleys, central/southern Taconics, CT River Valley of
southern VT and northern Litchfield from noon until 7 pm today.
The Heat Advisory is in effect for southern Litchfield County
until 8 PM.

The upper ridge axis will continue to shift eastward and a short
wave trough is on the approach and but will lift northeast into
eastern Canada tonight. Embedded short waves will move through
the deep southwest flow across the region.

SPC mesoscale analysis indicates MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg across
the area, mid-level lapse rates are around 6.5 C/km however low
level lapse rates are around 8 C/km, DCAPE from the Capital
District and to the south and east 800-1000, and surface to 3 km
bulk shear of 25 to 30 knots. Some strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected with convection moving across the
local areas mainly from 22Z-03Z.

Another muggy and warm night across the area with lows in the
60s to around 70 degrees. Stratus and fog is expected to form
especially where it rains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Coming soon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period period will feature persistent upper troughing
over and west of our region, which will lead to unsettled conditions
through much of the long term. Sunday into Monday, we will have a
stalled frontal boundary located over the region and multiple
shortwave disturbances aloft tracking over the region. This will
lead to multiple rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Most of the
region will be in play Sunday, although the best chance for
showers/storms Monday will be east and south of Albany as the
boundary slowly creeps eastwards. We may dry out briefly Tuesday as
the front moves off to the east and we see some weak height rises
aloft, but another upper trough diving down towards the Great Lakes
towards mid-week will bring additional chances for showers Tuesday
night into Thursday.

Daytime highs will be near to slightly above normal to start the
long term Sunday through Tuesday, although overnight lows will be
above normal with lows in the 50s for the high terrain and low 60s
for valley areas. High temperatures trend to slightly below normal
Wednesday and Thursday, although overnight lows both days will still
remain near to even slightly above normal. The CPC expects near
normal temperatures and is leaning towards above normal precip for
the 8-14 day timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...Flying conditions are currently VFR at all TAF
sites and should remain VFR through at least the next few hours.
Between 20-23z, scattered showers and thunderstorms overspread the
region from the southwest. These showers/storms could result in IFR
vsby and MVFR cig restrictions. Thunderstorms could also produce
heavy rain and gusty winds. There could be multiple rounds of
showers and storms, and showers/storms could persist well into
tonight, so have handled this with tempo groups from late afternoon
through around midnight.

Once showers and storms end tonight, forecast becomes tricky with
respect to fog/low stratus formation. At this point, winds look to
remain light, so am leaning towards more in the way of low stratus
than fog. There is also some uncertainty as to how many breaks in
the mid-level clouds there will be; if there are more breaks in the
mid clouds then we could see more low stratus than currently
forecast. Given the above, have included IFR cigs at GFL/PSF and
hinted at possibility of IFR cigs at ALB/POU. However, this is a low-
confidence forecast and adjustments can be expected with future TAF
issuances as we see where showers/storms track this afternoon and
evening.

Winds will be from the south at 5-10 kt through this evening,
becoming southerly at at 3-5 kt after midnight through mid-morning
tomorrow. By mid-morning, winds pick up to around 5-8 kt from the
S/SW.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for Sep 7
ALB 96 (1945)- high as of 345 pm 93 degrees
GFL 92 (2015)- high as of 345 pm 90 degrees
POU 98 (1943)- high as of 345 pm 93 degrees

&&xx

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043-
     049-050-052-053-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VTZ015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main
CLIMATE...ALY Staff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
428 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

NYZ038>041-043-049-050-052-053-059>061-064>066-083-084-081100-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Washington-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
428 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Storm will be capable of heavy downpours that could result in
localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas and
isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon into the
evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
across most of the area. Locally heavy downpours will be possible
each day, which may result in ponding of water or flash flooding.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday
afternoons into the evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MAZ001-025-VTZ013-014-081100-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-
428 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk across
the area. Locally heavy downpours will be possible each day, which
may result in ponding of water or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon into the
evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
across most of the area. Locally heavy downpours will be possible
each day, which may result in ponding of water or flash flooding.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday
afternoons into the evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-063-082-081100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Warren-Schoharie-
Western Schenectady-Western Albany-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-
Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-
428 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Storm will be capable of heavy downpours that could result in
localized flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas and
isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon into the
evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
across most of the area. Locally heavy downpours will be possible
each day, which may result in ponding of water or flash flooding.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday
afternoons into the evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CTZ001-VTZ015-081100-
Northern Litchfield-Eastern Windham-
428 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk across
the area. Locally heavy downpours will be possible each day, which
may result in ponding of water or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon into the
evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
across most of the area. Locally heavy downpours will be possible
each day, which may result in ponding of water or flash flooding.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday
afternoons into the evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

CTZ013-081100-
Southern Litchfield-
428 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk across
the area. Locally heavy downpours will be possible each day, which
may result in ponding of water or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon into the
evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal to slight risk
across most of the area. Locally heavy downpours will be possible
each day, which may result in ponding of water or flash flooding.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday and Monday
afternoons into the evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

NYZ052-058-059-072045-
Eastern Albany NY-Eastern Greene NY-Western Greene NY-
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Albany
and northeastern Greene Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 409 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Preston Hollow, or 13 miles northeast of Hunter,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, penny size hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Heavy rains could cause flooding.

Locations impacted include...
New Baltimore, Ravena, Coeymans, Cairo, Coeymans Hollow, East Durham,
Norton Hill, South Albany, Greenville Center, Spawn Hollow, South
Westerlo, Callanans Corners, Result, Sanfords Corners, Sunside,
Bethlehem Heights, Hannacroix, Place Corners, South Bethlehem and
Medway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
east central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 7408 4243 7403 4246 7403 4258 7385
      4243 7377 4242 7378 4228 7408 4238 7415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 236DEG 20KT 4237 7404

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Frugis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

NYZ033-042-072115-
Hamilton NY-Northern Warren NY-
424 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Hamilton and
northwestern Warren Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 423 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Pleasant, or 8 miles southwest of Speculator, moving northeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Speculator, Johnsburg, Lake Pleasant, Chestertown, North Creek,
Moffitt Beach Campground, Byrnes Corners, Garnet Lake, Sodom,
Riparius, Perkins Clearing, Rudeston, Edwards Hill, Christian Hill,
Wevertown, Holcombville, North River, Igerna, Sled Harbor and Bakers
Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized poor drainage flooding. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
eastern and east central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4380 7405 4378 7405 4377 7406 4374 7406
      4376 7390 4376 7388 4361 7376 4339 7449
      4352 7458 4381 7408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 239DEG 22KT 4348 7446

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TAW/EAB

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