Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Albany, NY

236 
WGUS71 KALY 100446
FFSALY

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1246 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

NYC111-100456-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-230910T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ulster NY-
1246 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ULSTER COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4164 7394 4173 7394 4175 7392 4179 7394
      4180 7381 4181 7363 4179 7361 4169 7367
      4164 7380 4161 7394 4162 7394

$$

NYC027-100615-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-230910T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dutchess NY-
1246 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR CENTRAL DUTCHESS COUNTY...

At 1246 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Poughkeepsie, Hyde Park, Pleasant Valley, Millbrook, Red Oaks 
  Mill, Fairview, Timothy Heights, Clark Heights, Freedom Plains, 
  Moores Mill, Rochdale, Colonial Heights, Billings, Macdonnell 
  Heights, Verbank Village, Washington Hollow, Gretna, Netherwood, 
  Manchester Bridge and Noxon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7394 4173 7394 4175 7392 4179 7394
      4180 7381 4181 7363 4179 7361 4169 7367
      4164 7380 4161 7394 4162 7394

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JPV

171 
WGUS71 KALY 100608
FFSALY

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
208 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

NYC027-100618-
/O.EXP.KALY.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-230910T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dutchess NY-
208 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 215 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR CENTRAL DUTCHESS COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 4164 7394 4173 7394 4175 7392 4179 7394
      4180 7381 4181 7363 4179 7361 4169 7367
      4164 7380 4161 7394 4162 7394

$$

JPV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
832 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front across the Northeast will result in cloudy,
unsettled, and humid weather with showers and afternoon to
evening thunderstorms into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As 8 PM...Stalled boundary located across eastern PA and the
Lower Hudson Valley then extending northeastward across southern
New England has been the focus for convection. Storms have been
moving northward away from the boundary. Storms have been produced
very heavy rainfall, lots of lightning and small hail. Convection
keeps re-firing in our forecast area across Litchfield County
into the Berkshires this evening while more convection remains
to our west across eastern PA into central NY. Overall storms
have weakened as instability has decreased. Chances for showers
and possibly some thunderstorms will continue through the night
as short waves move through the southwest flow across the region.
Not confident in the coverage across the area overnight so have
chance PoPs. Another muggy night with lows in the 60s with mid
and upper 50s across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain
of the eastern Catskills and southern Greens.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [427 PM]...Quite a bit of sun in eastern NY
and western New England with some isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the Berkshires and also building north into the
mid Hudson Valley. The best instability is from the mid Hudson
Valley to southern Berkshires and NW CT, where low level dew
points and equivalent potential temperatures are highest.

Boundary layer flow is from the south to south southeast and very
weak. The diffuse gradient of low level moisture is providing
enough forcing to support the isolated showers and storms and
some of the storms will track through the mid Hudson Valley and
NW CT. Showers and storms associated with the upper energy in
western NY/PA will track east through the evening and clusters
of showers and storms will track through eastern NY and western
New England this evening and night as the upper energy drifts
east, catching up with the diffuse low level forcing along the
low level boundary.

CAPEs into this evening exceed 2000 j/kg in southern areas but
drop off to 1000 j/kg or less into parts of the eastern
Catskills to Capital Region to southern VT and points north. So,
some gusty winds, small hail and locally heavy rain can be
expected in thunderstorms, especially in southern areas. Very
weak shear should limit severe potential to isolated at best.

Coverage of showers and storms should decrease toward daybreak
but some clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms may
shift to the NY/New England border by daybreak. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any Sunday morning showers and storms should exit shortly after
daybreak but clouds will linger as upper energy continues to
drift east and weaken, once again, enhancing low level forcing
along the diffuse and weak cold front. Better coverage of
showers and scattered thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon with the
upper energy currently in western NY/PA moving over our region,
continuing through the evening. More clouds and coverage of
showers should limit instability but still, locally heavy rain
possible. Highs Sunday in the 70s with around 70 higher terrain.

Upper energy dissipates as it drifts just east of the region my
Monday and Tuesday but another upper impulse begins to drop out
of Canada into the Great Lakes and the old diffuse surface
boundary may drift back north, keeping clouds and at least
scattered showers Monday, exiting later MOnday afternoon and
evening. The clouds and showers will limit heating and
instability, while deep and low level shear will once again be
weak. So, no severe storms are expected. Highs Monday in the 70s
with near 80 mid Hudson Valley and around 70 higher terrain.

Some weak upper ridging ahead of the developing upper impulse in
the Great Lakes could limit the clouds and chances for showers
part or much of the day Tuesday, depending on how quickly the
upper impulse approaches. Scattered showers and storms possible
Tuesday afternoon but again, some glimpses of sun possible
until the showers and storms develop. Highs Tuesday in the mid
70s to around 80 with around 70 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A widespread showers/rainfall is expected across the area mid-week
as a low pressure system approaches and moves across the region.
Guidance indicates an upper low should develop over the Great Lakes
by Tuesday night into Wednesday so the system would be slow to move
across the region. The upper trough is expected to become negatively
tilted Wednesday with the system's associated surface fronts moving
into the region bringing the best and most widespread chances for
showers to the area. Expecting lingering chances for showers as
the upper trough axis swings through Wednesday night into Thursday.

The Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Tuesday night across the area with
a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across the area for Wednesday/Wednesday
night. There is not good agreement amongst the guidance about
the amount and placement of excepted QPF, however we have wet
antecedent conditions from recent rainfall and we are looking at
unsettled weather through Monday across the area.

At this time, have fair weather forecast for the end of the week
into next the weekend with ridging dominating. However our weather
will be dependent on the track and timing of Hurricane Lee. Please
refer to forecasts and products issued by the National Hurricane
Center.

Overall, expecting slightly below normal temperatures with highs
from the upper 50s to mid 70s and lows starting Wednesday night in
the mid 40s to to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z/Monday...Stalled boundary located across eastern PA
and the Lower Hudson Valley then extending northeastward across
southern New England has been the focus for convection. Storms
have been moving northward away from the boundary. Chances for
showers and possibly some thunderstorms will continue through
the night as short waves move through the southwest flow across
the region. Have a TEMPO group in KPSF TAF for convection that
keeps developing across northwestern CT and the Berkshires thsi
evening. Beyond this not confident about the coverage across
the area overnight. Confidence increases as we head into Sunday
and we get some minor height falls as long trough begins to
deepen over the Great Lakes Region as short waves continue to
move through the southwest flow.

Overall expecting VFR conditions to lower to MVFR with IFR
conditions developing at KPOU and KPSF closer to the stalled
boundary late at night/early Sunday morning. Once widespread
MVFR conditions develop expect them to persist through the rest
of the TAF period with widespread showers late morning into the
evening Sunday with some thunderstorms. Have adressed the
thunderstorms with PROB30 groups. Winds will remain very light
to calm.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
358 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-101100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
358 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms into this evening may result in isolated
instances of damaging wind gusts or large hail. Storms will also be
capable of producing heavy downpours that could result in localized
flooding of urban, poor drainage, or low-lying areas or isolated
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon. Storms will be capable of heavy downpours that could
result in localized flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low-lying
areas or isolated flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
927 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

NYZ032-038>040-082-100200-
Southern Fulton NY-Northern Herkimer NY-Northern Fulton NY-
Southern Herkimer NY-Montgomery NY-
927 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Fulton,
southern Herkimer and northwestern Montgomery Counties through 1000
PM EDT...

At 927 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Little Falls, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, Fort Plain,
Dolgeville, St. Johnsville, Ohio, Newport, Middleville, Poland, Cold
Brook, Jordanville, Northwood, Cedarville, Russia, Oppenheim,
Fairfield and Elizabethtown.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 29A and 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4322 7507 4324 7507 4323 7510 4326 7516
      4330 7515 4330 7512 4333 7508 4337 7508
      4343 7482 4342 7482 4334 7487 4330 7476
      4294 7459 4287 7502 4291 7510 4289 7512
      4309 7518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 164DEG 27KT 4309 7489

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

IAA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
930 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Lake Minnewaska     41.73N  74.19W
09/09/2023                   Ulster             NY   Law Enforcement

            Single tree down near the Shawagunk Mountain area. Time
            estimated from radar

&&

Event Number ALY2304366

MEM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
932 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Port Ben           41.76N  74.33W
09/09/2023                   Ulster             NY   Law Enforcement

            Tree and wires down between Wawarsing and Napanoch.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

Event Number ALY2304367

MEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1006 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

NYZ032-033-038-082-100245-
Northern Herkimer NY-Hamilton NY-Northern Fulton NY-
Southern Herkimer NY-
1006 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Hamilton, northwestern Fulton and central Herkimer Counties through
1045 PM EDT...

At 1005 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cold Brook, or 14 miles north of Herkimer, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, penny size hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Heavy rains could cause flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Speculator, Old Forge, Ohio, Lake Pleasant, Wells, Newport,
Stratford, Middleville, Poland, Cold Brook, Caroga Lake Public
Campground, Lewey Lake Campground, McKeever, Moffitt Beach
Campground, Caroga Lake, Nicks Lake Campground, Northwood, Russia,
Fairfield and Norway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4330 7515 4330 7512 4333 7508 4373 7512
      4368 7425 4312 7433 4314 7514 4322 7507
      4324 7507 4323 7510 4326 7516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 194DEG 22KT 4324 7498

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

MEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1016 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

CTZ001-NYZ064>066-100300-
Northern Litchfield CT-Eastern Dutchess NY-Western Dutchess NY-
Eastern Ulster NY-
1016 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Ulster
and Dutchess Counties through 1100 PM EDT...

At 1016 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pleasant Valley, or near Poughkeepsie, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, half inch hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Heavy rains could cause flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Poughkeepsie, Kingston, New Paltz, Rhinebeck, Hyde Park, Milton,
Pleasant Valley, Amenia, Highland, Pine Plains, Red Hook, Millbrook,
Millerton, Stanfordville, Port Ewen, Fairview, Red Oaks Mill, Lake
Katrine, Staatsburg and Wingdale.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 18 and 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4167 7411 4204 7400 4197 7346 4159 7355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 191DEG 19KT 4170 7379

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

MEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1056 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

NYZ065-066-100345-
Eastern Dutchess NY-Western Dutchess NY-
1056 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Dutchess
County through 1145 PM EDT...

At 1055 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Millbrook, or 12 miles northeast of Poughkeepsie, moving northeast at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasant Valley, Amenia, Pine Plains, Millbrook, Millerton, Fairview,
Stanfordville, Bethel, Milan, Smithfield, Salt Point, Lithgow, Hoxie
Corner, Haviland, Shunpike, Shekomeko, Washington Hollow,
Mabbettsville, Verbank and Pulvers Corners.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 7363 4173 7393 4200 7381 4197 7351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 204DEG 10KT 4179 7371

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JPV