Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
350 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this evening from the west.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight as the front moves across the area. Trough remains over
the area on Tuesday, bringing another chance for showers and
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Latest satellite showing plume of drier air lifting across the
mid- South into the Carolinas and lower mid-Atlantic. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed largely as
expected over the piedmont and points westward. Mid to high
debris clouds from last nights MCS/MCV still holding firm east
of I-95. Farther west has broken out with scattered CU field
popping up now, with MLCAPE responding and climbing into the
2-3k J/Kg. 18Z soundings just to our southwest showing mid-level
lapse rates into the 7-8 deg C/Km range over western Carolinas,
and into the 6.5-7.5 range over our SW third (I-85 corridor).
SVR Watch 393 in effect until 10PM. Would expect a second watch
would eventually follow for coastal counties in relatively short
order.

Enhanced Risk continues over our VA and NC counties but has been cut
back to slight with substantial clouds over the Delmarva.
Timing the storms for the remainder of the day into tonight should
bring thunderstorms to our piedmont counties now through 6pm, and
through the I-95 corridor between 6-9pm, and over the coast between
7 and midnight.

Given the steep lapse rates and -10 to -30 keep, still suspecting
large hail and frequent to continuous lightning will be a threat
over our area, but it's hard to miss inverted V look to soundings
(DCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) with strong damaging winds as our
primary threat. Finally, given flash flood guidance being quite
low over our urban areas and much of eastern VA, a Flood Watch
was issued for the I-64 corridor from RIC metro to Hampton Roads
including all of coastal/eastern VA.

Severe threat ends after 02-04z/10-12 am EDT, but storms could
linger into the overnight hours, especially over eastern sections.
Early morning lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Upper trough will remain over the region on Tuesday, with a
broad area of low pressure extending south into the area. Expect
that this will result in additional scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Pops have been remain in 50-80% range, with the highest
chance across central VA/northern neck over to the MD Eastern
Shore. Expect the stalled front over the coastal plain will be
the focus but not really keying in on severe potential at this
time. Chances for heavy rain continue, but not expecting
widespread flooding issues with steering flow remaining high
enough to keep storms from stalling. However, urban/poor
draining flooding over Hampton Roads could remain an issue. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 80s.

Drier and sunnier conditions are expected on Wednesday as the
trough moves off the coast. Pops of around 20% continue for the
Eastern Shore for convection along the lingering boundary. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

After a day or two to dry out a bit, weather starts to look a
bit more active heading into the holiday weekend. Ridging aloft
over the southern Plains and northern Mexico will try to expand
NE late this week into the weekend (but should remain SW of the
area) while another upper trough slowly tracks from the Canadian
prairies into the upper Great Lakes. The flow aloft will remain
W or NW through the weekend in between these two features.

Thursday and even much of Friday look to remain mainly dry,
though dew points steadily rise into the upper 60s to low 70s on
Friday and low-mid 70s for Saturday/Sunday. Given high
temperatures in the 80s to near 90F each day, this should result
in adequate instability/moisture for aftn/evening tstms. Slight
to low end PoPs in place for Friday, with higher chances over
the weekend. Embedded shortwaves in the developing NW flow
aloft should provide the necessary forcing for convection each
day Sat-Mon. Timing in this type of pattern is quite difficult
this far out, but will have chc PoPs each day (highest during
the aftn/evening as is typical this time of year). Will continue
to have slight chc-low chc PoPs on Monday for tstms as well.
Lows mainly in the 60s Fri AM, with upper 60s-lower 70s from
Sat-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions over area terminals at this hour will begin to
degrade from W to E over the next few hours into the evening.
Winds should remain near 5-10 kt or decrease a few kt overnight,
while remaining southerly. S winds 10-15 kt will gust to ~20-25
kt. Expect flight restrictions w/ this activity and
restrictions may reach RIC by ~23-01z/7-9 pm EDT, while likely
holding off until near/after 00z for SBY, PHF, ORF, and ECG.

Widespread showers and storms should be ongoing late this evening
into the early overnight Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Strong to
severe tstms possible tonight through 00-04z/Tue with damaging wind
gusts and large hail possible.

Outlook: Unsettled conditions continue on Tue/Wed, as an upper
trough lingers over the area, with a chc of primarily aftn/evening
showers/tstms. Drier conditions return by Thursday as the trough
pushes offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 PM EDT Monday...

Anomalously strong low pressure (for late June) is over Michigan
this afternoon, with a cold front well to our west (over the
Appalachians). Winds are SSW at 10-15 kt, with 2-3 ft seas and
1-2 ft waves. Southerly winds increase to 15-20 kt on the
ocean/~15 kt on the bay/rivers/sound by this evening. Gusts of
20-25 kt are expected on the ocean (mainly N of Cape Charles),
with occasional 20 kt gusts expected on the bay/rivers this
aftn through the first part of tonight. Seas build to 3-4 ft
S/4-5 ft N by this evening. Waves on the Bay will build to 2-3
ft during this time. Even though it is marginal, will maintain
SCAs for the nrn two coastal zones from this evening thru early
Tues morning (mainly for seas). Waves/seas should remain below
advisory criteria elsewhere, and SCA gusts are not expected to
be frequent enough to warrant headlines. Winds diminish to
10-15 kt (but remain S-SSW) by Tuesday. Not sure how long the
4-5 ft seas persist across the nrn waters, so have ended the SCA
at 11z/7 AM Tue for now.

The bigger story for this evening-early tonight will be the
threat for strong to severe tstms over the waters. Still
expecting widespread tstms from late this aftn into late
evening. These storms may consolidate into a line as they
approach/track across the waters. The most likely timing for
strong to severe storms over the waters is from 22-04z/6 PM-
midnight. SMWs will be needed and gusts in excess of 50 kt are
possible. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt on Tue with scattered
aftn/evening tstms expected (a few SMWs may be needed). Sub-SCA
conditions (with lower tstm chances) are expected from Wed-Fri
as that weak cold front finally crosses the waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075>078-081>086-
     088>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...CP/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ERI/JDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

VAZ098-272200-
Virginia Beach-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
The main threats will be damaging winds...large hail...and frequent
lightning. Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to instances of
flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

VAZ075>078-084>086-093-095>097-523>525-272200-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-York-
Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Virginia,
eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening. The
main threats will be damaging winds...large hail...and frequent
lightning. Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to instances of
flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

VAZ099-100-272200-
Accomack-Northampton-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
The main threats will be damaging winds...large hail...and frequent
lightning. Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to instances of
flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

MDZ025-272200-
Maryland Beaches-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening. The
main threats will be damaging winds...large hail...and frequent
lightning. Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to instances of
flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079-080-087-509-510-272200-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Greensville-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, north
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

VAZ081>083-088>090-092-511>522-272200-
Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Southampton-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

MDZ021>024-272200-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats. An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ102-272200-
Eastern Currituck-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
The main threats will be damaging winds...large hail...and frequent
lightning. Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to instances of
flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ012>017-030>032-272200-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats. An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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