Storm Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
238 PM AKDT Fri Mar 17 2023

.SHORT TERM...A weakening front is moving onshore this afternoon
bringing some rain showers to the . With these showers, some wind
is expected as observations are reporting some stronger gusts
with periods of precipitation. Through tonight, the front
continues to weaken and precipitation chances further diminish.
Saturday a strong gale force low moves through the western Gulf
bringing another weakening front to the outer coast. There is
some uncertainty on how far inland precipitation will push inland.
For now, limiting greatest chances to the outer coast. As for
wind, strong gales, with gusts possibly reaching storm force, are
expected out of the east for the offshore marines then diminishing
through Saturday night. There is a chance that sustained winds
near storm force could develops along the northern Gulf Coast near
Cape Suckling. Temperatures are warm this afternoon and that
trend will continue, current observations report temperatures in
the low to mid 40s. Expect little diurnal change tonight with
temperatures forecasted in the upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...Rain starts to end across the panhandle during the
day on Sunday. Temperatures continue to warm for the start of the
week. Ensembles continue to agree with the idea that the area is
going to enter a break from the active weather for the start of
the week with only some patchy precipitation moving across the
area. Other parts of the panhandle look to see a break from the
rain and some clearing skies. With this break, models continue to
show that winds across the area will decrease during this time
allowing for calmer conditions. As models continue to show the
decrease across the area in winds, went ahead and continued this
trend in the forecast.

Expect this to be only a short lived break as rain looks to move
back into the panhandle for the middle portion of the week as
another system works into the gulf. Most of the precipitation that
looks to fall across this area will be rain as surface
temperatures continue to remain warmer inhibiting snow from
falling across most locations. Any snow that falls across the
panhandle will be limited to the higher elevation locations with
the warmer air entrenched across the lower elevations along the
water.

Beyond the mid range, the Climate Prediction Center continues to
advertise the of slightly elevated chances of seeing below normal
temperatures for this time of year. As for precipitation,
currently expect near normal precipitation across SE AK during
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with some gusty winds mid-day Friday will change as a
frontal band is already moving onshore over PAYA, POW, and
southern Baranof Island as of 21-00z. Expecting CIG/VIS as low as
MVFR in the moderate showers. However, as the frontal bands
approach, SE winds at the lower to mid levels increase to 35-45kt,
followed by decreases down to 20-30kt in between. This will
continue the variability of LLWS in the TAFs and some of those
winds will be able to mix down as gusts with the showers.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...     Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ322.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033>036-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...Ferrin

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