Storm Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
534 AM AKST Thu Jan 19 2023

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/...Warmer low level air has
moved in from the west with the front as expected, resulting in
very little snow at lower elevations. Exception to this would be
the northeast Gulf coast, where northeasterly surface winds have
kept temperatures there down to near freezing. Elsewhere, trace
amounts of snow in Haines and minor accumulations in Hoonah were
observed overnight. The winter weather advisory for both the
Haines Highway and Klondike Highway remains in place, but
temperatures are already above freezing near Haines Customs and
that advisory may end early if temperatures there continue to
rise. Look for temperatures across Southeast Alaska to remain
steady or continue to warm overnight

Winds are more of an issue than snow with the present front. Many
land sites are already gusting to 30 mph or more with a few
locations seeing 40 mph. Specifically, Hydaburg, Ketchikan, and
Skagway. As the front moves inland later this morning and weakens,
winds will diminish through the evening hours and remain in the
neighborhood of 10 to 15 mph through the night.

.LONG TERM...Period begins with winds and precip continuing across
the region as another low pushes N through the central gulf
pushing another frontal band through the panhandle. This will
bring another round of precip and winds to the region. Precip
will be generally liquid over the region except for the Haines and
Klondike highways where another round of 3-6 inches of snowfall
Fri night into Sat. CAA over the inner channels may be sufficient
to bring accumulating snow near sea level to the Juneau and the
Icy Strait corridor. Given model spread in boundary layer thermal
profiles, confidence is below average on how the rain/snow line
will meander so kept mention of up to 2 inches snowfall over this
region. Conditions will ease Sat night as a short wave ridge moves
across the region. This respite will be brief however as long
wave trough remaining anchored over the W gulf will continue to
direct a series of storms across the region through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR to IFR conditions continue to spread across the
region Thursday. Lowering ceilings and decreased visibility as
precip bands track inland. LLWS increases with this front and
tightening pressure gradient. As the front moves overland and
begins to weaken precip rates decrease and visibility improves,
but ceilings are likely to remain low. This is due to less mixing
as LLWS also begins to subside.

&&

.MARINE...A gale force front is impacting the eastern Gulf of
Alaska this morning and winds have picked up over the inner
channels as well. Besides gales of 40 to 45 kts over the coastal
marine zones, gales to 35 kts are expected later this morning for
Cross Sound, Southern Chatham Strait, and Clarence Strait.
Elsewhere on the inside, small craft winds of 25 to 30 kts and
seas from 5 to 7 feet are expected. On the outside, combined seas
of 12 to 15 feet as of early this morning will build to 20 ft or
higher by late morning, then begin to subside as the front
weakens. Seas will build again overnight to 14-18 ft from west to
east.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318-
     319.
     Strong Wind from 6 AM AKST this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ328.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM this morning to noon AKST today for AKZ330-
     332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-035-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...Fritsch
LONG TERM....BC
AVIATION...PRB
MARINE...Fritsch

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