Small Craft Advisory 252, NWS Juneau, AK

937 
FZAK53 PAJK 232259
CWFYAK

Marine forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-241700-
Yakutat Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 23 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas
7 ft. S swell early in the evening. Rain showers. 
.MONDAY...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUESDAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WEDNESDAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THURSDAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRIDAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
221 PM AKDT Sat Apr 22 2023

.SHORT TERM...Low pressure system moved into the SE Gulf with the
associated front moving over the panhandle from S to N. Rain
mainly over the southern regions through the morning along with
increased winds. As the low tracks towards the NE Gulf by Sunday
night rain showers expected to spread over most of SE AK.
Initially rainfall amounts only a few tenths of an inch however
for the N Panhandle and especially the NE Gulf Coast will get some
increased rates, closer to a quarter of an inch, as the low
center moves in. Inner channel winds less than 20 kt overall and
dropping as pressure gradient becomes parallel for the N-S
oriented channels. Gulf winds in a similar range with only impacts
being higher seas from S-SW swell. Cloud cover and rainfall kept
temps in the mid 40s central areas south with little diurnal
change expected tonight into tomorrow. Far northern areas got
into the mid 50s due to clearer skies, but as the front advances
increasing cloud cover and showers should not be as big a drop in
over night lows for the north and likely see near uniform temps
tomorrow. Models remained consistent so only minor changes were
made to inherited forecast.

LONG TERM...// Monday through Saturday // An area of low pressure
over the Gulf looks to continue bringing surface lows through the
panhandle next week. Widespread precipitation is expected Monday
has a low situates itself just off the northern gulf coast.
Tuesday, an inverted trough develops through the inner channels
while a short wave moves through the southern half of the
panhandle. There is some differences in how strong the short wave
will be and how much precipitation it brings across the south. In
general, the northern panhandle can expect some showers Tuesday
while the southern half may see more consistent rain. Heading into
the midweek, a trough is expected to move through the E Gulf and
then into the panhandle causing more steady rain to develop across
the panhandle. At the time, a deepening surface low looks to
develop in the SE Gulf and move over the southern Panhandle. There
is still some timing and strength issues to be worked out, but in
general expect some gusty winds and heavy precipitation through
the southern inner channels Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
southern inner channels could see winds around 25-30 kts gusting
to 35 kts at times.

Going into the second half of the week, a diminishing trend in
precipitation is expected Wednesday evening. By Thursday, heavier
rain associated with a long fetch of moisture develops and
focuses itself over Yakutat before shifting to the west Friday
afternoon. Models are still trying to pinpoint this system as each
solution points the so called "fire hose" along different areas of
the coast. In general though, the NE Gulf Coast looks to take the
brunt of the precipitation Thursday/Friday.

Saturday brings relief, as latest guidance continues to support a
ridge building over the panhandle. There is still some details to
be worked out on where the ridge axis sets up exactly and how
strong the ridge builds north. For now, there is moderate
confidence that drier weather and much warmer temperatures can be
expected Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...A front across the southern half of the panhandle is
slowly spreading clouds and rain farther north. Mostly VFR and
MVFR conditions, but occasion IFR visibility due to heavier
showers have been observed across western Prince of Wales Island
this afternoon. Some gusty winds in the southern panhandle, but
little in the way of low level wind shear or turbulence has been
reported so far. What has been reported by pilots is icing at
around 6 to 8 thousand feet this afternoon across the south. This
front and associated low will continue to affect the panhandle
and spread clouds and precip farther north into tonight and
Sunday. VFR and MVFR conditions prevail though isolated IFR not
out of the question. Winds becoming less of a factor into tonight
as system starts to weaken.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Sunday
     for AKZ322.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-661>664-671-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....CC
AVIATION...EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau