Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Juneau, AK

915 
FZAK52 PAJK 081230
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 8 2023

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-090630-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front over the NE gulf coast will move W to Prince William
Sound Sunday. High pressure in the Yukon begins to build Sunday
into Monday.  

$$

PKZ041-090630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 8 2023

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-090630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the 
afternoon. S swell early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building 
to 12 ft.
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-090630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. SE swell becoming S in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-090630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-090630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing late. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 7 2023

.SHORT TERM...Saturday night forecast didn't change much as it
was already on track with the low tracking NW through the Gulf of
Alaska. The stronger wind is primarily focused along the panhandle
coast and through a few of the inner channels. The rain is over
the southern half as of Saturday afternoon and will move north and
NW Tonight and early Sunday.

The most noticeable change was the back  edge appeared to be
sharper and moving northward faster starting early Sunday morning
across the southern panhandle, and reaching the northern panhandle
by late evening. The quicker end to the precipitation suggests
clearing clouds and this will lead to cooler overnight lows Sunday
night into Monday.

The gusty winds Saturday evening will be diminishing as the
trough panhandle travels NW along Strong wind headlines for gusts
of 40 to 55 mph this evening.

.LONG TERM...The mid-range forecast was primarily focused on
early next week again. Yesterday, PoPS and cloud cover were
lowered based on latest guidance so today was used to double
check and see if today's guidance still supported decisions made
yesterday. And to put it simply, the latest data shows we are
still good for launch on low PoPS and sunshine early this
upcoming week.

With yesterday's update, the idea behind the forecast was the
outflow winds would lower the chances for precip - so PoPs were
lowered even more compared to the day before. Today's update kept
the low precip chances in Monday's forecast through Tuesday. The
exception is the far southern panhandle Monday morning where a
quick hit of showers is possible, but even then, skies are
expected to clear out quickly in the afternoon.

Tuesday night into Wednesday is when the next round of rain and
snow may track through SE AK from south to north. The source of
the rain and snow isn't real strong, so low confidence on exact
timing, but current forecasted amounts are minimal with low
impacts.

Late next week, Thursday/Friday, there is early evidence in the
models of a decently strong low pressure center tracking through
the eastern gulf. High uncertainty is wrapped all around that
part of the forecast so stay plugged into the forecast as we get
closer.

Forecast temperatures were overall, allowed to ride. The
exception was warming the southern areas a little bit, based on
latest NBM guidance, Tuesday night and Wednesday. This made sense
as this time frame is when the next round of precip and clouds
will move in, which would bring in warmer air, compared to
Monday's temps.

Inner channel winds were kept at around 20 to 30 knots for the
channels that normally get the quicker winds speeds during outflow
wind events.

&&

.AVIATION...Main batch of rain and lower ceilings associated with
the enhancement of cloudcover/precipitation on the east side of a
low coming up the eastern Gulf of Alaska will continue
progressing northward up across the SE Alaska Panhandle tonight
into early Sunday. Periods of ceilings at or below 1500 ft agl
and visibilities periodically down to 1-2 miles in mostly rain
central and south with a mix of snow and rain to the north. We are
fairly confident (based on model consensus) that ceilings and
visibilities will start to lift over the southern half of the
Panhandle after 07Z and after 13Z to the north as the low tracks
north into the northeastern Gulf of Alaska. Tomorrow (especially
after 10 AM) looks to be more favorable for aviation operations as
compared to today across SE Alaska with the exception of Yakutat
where low ceilings (IFR/LIFR) and precipitation look to likely
prevail into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Gale force winds of 35 to 40 kt in a band along the
trough/front of the low tracking NW across the eastern Gulf of
Alaska for tonight. Winds diminish to small craft or less for
Sunday. Another band will be lifting towards Dixon Entrance Sunday
afternoon evening so Small Craft could be trying to advance into
the southern panhandle then.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for Akz018.
      Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323.
      Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...Garmon

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