High Wind Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

094 
WWAK77 PAJK 090623
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
923 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

AKZ328-090900-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230209T0900Z/
Prince of Wales Island-
Including the cities of Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, 
and Thorne Bay
923 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southwest portion of Prince of Wales Island, mainly 
  near Hydaburg.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines
  causing power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

393 
WWAK77 PAJK 090851
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1151 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

AKZ328-091000-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230209T0900Z/
Prince of Wales Island-
Including the cities of Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, 
and Thorne Bay
1151 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

Peak measured wind gusts were up to 35 to 45 mph. No damage 
reports as of 11:30PM.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
615 AM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday night/...Another day of rain and
snow showers are expected for SE AK today. Snow showers could
produce up to 2 inches of new snow today for areas along and
north of Icy Strait.

Focus then shifts to the gale force low and front that is coming
up from the south tonight into tomorrow. Several parts of this
system to consider-

For winds, much of the panhandle will see gusty winds tonight
with the Clarence Strait area likely still seeing the winds into
tomorrow. 850 mb winds are forecast to be around 70 to 75 kt over
southern Prince of Wales Island which should be just enough for
60+ kt gusts at Hydaburg and the rest of southern Prince of Wales
(very borderline case). High wind watch remains in place.

For precip, Rain is mainly expected for areas south of Sumner
Strait, but farther north and east, a mix to all snow is expected
as the east/west orientation of the front pulls more cold air in
from Canada. This will bring up to 5 inches of snow (13 inches at
Hyder) to various parts of the central and northern inner
channels. Several caveats on snow amounts though - Higher res
model guidance is suggesting that the higher QPF will have a
difficult time reaching the northern areas which would limit snow
totals. Also the central inner channels will have the difficulty
of how warm or cold various areas get with Petersburg, Angoon, and
Kake possibly sitting somewhere between 33 and 36 for most of Wed
night and Thu. If any areas from Juneau and Gustavus southward to
Petersburg and Kake see higher(lower) QPF and/or colder(warmer)
temperatures snow accumulations could end up ranging from nearly
nothing to up to 8 or 9 inches. Winter Storm Watch remains for
the Hyder area as that location has higher confidence in cold
enough temps and high QPF to support significant accumulations.

.LONG TERM...A low over the southeast gulf will be departing the
area through Thursday night with some lingering showers friday
morning. Areas to the north of the low, from Fredrick Sound north,
will be see accumulating snow though Thursday night as a
deformation band looks to set up over the area. Amounts will vary
but an additional 2 to 5 inches would not be out of the question
with cold air at the low levels and good upper level forcing. The
winds will be increasing out of the northwest over the gulf as a
surface ridge builds over the gulf a head of the next impactful
weather system that will affect the panhandle. The winds over the
inner channels will not be that strong from the south.

Friday looks to be a break day but as mentioned above there may be
some lingering showers mainly along the coast mountains. There is
good model agreement with this next system. The front will drift
across the gulf through Friday and move onshore that night. The
parent low will be over the far western gulf so at this time the
strongest winds will be over the eastern gulf with gales but as
the front moves over the area it will increase the southerly
pressure gradient and increase the winds over the inside waters to
be a solid small craft with some pockets over the southern areas
of gales. Precip wise there will be some cooler air over the
panhandle with 850-1000mb thickness within range of snow for the
inner channels. Amounts at this time could range from 3 to 5
inches before rain begins to mix in by morning as the source
region for this front is from the southwest and will bring in some
warmer air.

For the rest of the weekend it does look to be on the active side
with another system moving into the gulf on Sunday and over
Southeast Alaska on Monday. There is some indication from the
ensemble members that there will be some drier weather for the
panhandle early next week.

Overall there is average forecaster confidence on the pattern with
it be on the active side going through the weekend. Confidence is
a bit lower than average for the snow amount on Friday night into
Saturday. Mainly used a mix of the GFS and ECMWF along with
ensemble information.

&&

.AVIATION...Improving ceilings and visibilities today as the
previous front exits the area, but then deteriorating conditions
tonight as the next front approaches from the south. Am thinking
that CIGS and VSBY will not go below MVFR, but LLWS and turbulence
will become a significant issue, mostly for the southern half of
the Panhandle. Morning TAFs reflect this thinking.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ322.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ323-
     328-330.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ325-326.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ328.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ329.
     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon
     for AKZ331.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033>035-051>053.

&&

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....ABJ
AVIATION...Fritsch

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