Gale Warning 52, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather
Service Juneau AK 910 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

.SHORT TERM...A low in the southeastern gulf will continue to
bring precipitation to the panhandle Thursday night before and
pushing inland overnight. In the southern panhandle, the winter
weather advisory was canceled for Hyder as temperatures remained
warm enough in the boundary layer to limit accumulation and result
in mostly a rain/snow mix. Otherwise the southern panhandle will see
continued rain as temperatures climbed to the mid 40s under the
influence of southerly flow. Gale force winds in the gulf associated
with this low will diminish as it pushes eastward tonight. Winds in
Clarence Strait around Metlakatla and Ketchikan will also remain
strong with gusts to between 20 and 30 kt before also subsiding as
the low weakens and progresses inland overnight.

For the Icy Strait corridor, temperatures along the outer coast have
risen and further snow accumulation in the areas of Pelican and
Elfin Cove will be limited. The interior channels of the Icy Strait
corridor, including Gustavus and Juneau, are still under a winter
weather advisory through tonight as a band of enhanced precipitation
lingers over the area. The northernmost movement of this enhanced
precipitation, as well as temperatures being at or just above
freezing, could have an affect on snow amounts. Snow is expected to
persist overnight until the entire system moves eastward overnight
ahead of an approaching ridge.
This will offer a brief respite as another frontal wave approaches
on Friday evening associated with a low approaching from the Bering
Sea.

.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Tuesday/...The upper level
pattern is going through a gradual shift over the mid and long range
periods. What starts out as a long wave trough centered over the
Bering Sea with SW flow aloft over the Panhandle Friday changes to a
progressive trough/ridge pattern across the area by early next week.

At the surface, the weekend will be plagued by a series of two
separate fronts that will be moving through the area. The first is
on Friday night followed by a second on Sunday. Both of these
systems will be coming in from the W or SW and will bring more
rain/snow and breezy conditions to the area. For winds, mid Gale
force winds for the Gulf waters and southern Inner Channels are
likely for both with a very brief break in between on Saturday. For
precip, the south can expect mostly rain while the north will be
snow changing to rain. Snowfall rates are expected to mainly stay
below advisory levels mainly due to temperatures possibly hovering
around the low to mid 30s for most of the event. This is due to warm
air advecting from the south over the area as the 2 frontal systems
approach.

For early next week, another break between weather systems looks to
occur with only chances for light precipitation and potential for
breaks in the clouds over the Panhandle as relatively quick moving
weak ridging moves over the area. Additionally, cooler temperatures
look to advect into the area associated with northerly flow behind
Sunday's frontal system and the ridge that will be poised over the
area into Tuesday.

Overall, for the long term forecast period, forecast confidence is
generally average. Model agreement is generally good with mild
divergence toward the end of the period. Also, ensemble member
spread seems reasonable for this time of year for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...Marginal VFR with occasional IFR conditions over the
next 24 hours as rain and snow showers move across the area from the
current front over the Southeast Alaska. Layered clouds up to the
flight levels with most mountain tops obscured by clouds. Some VIS
will be reduced as the band of heavier showers mover over the
northern panhandle tonight. This system will move out of the area
through late tonight into tomorrow morning with much better flying
conditions on Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Friday for
AKZ319>321-     325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-036-051.

&&

SHORT TERM...CC/STJ
LONG TERM....JLC
AVIATION...ABJ

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