Gale Warning 263, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
521 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

.SHORT TERM.../ through Monday night / First frontal band is
moving through the remainder of the southern Panhandle Monday
morning. A secondary band moving across the north central Gulf of
Alaska this morning will spread rain into the Northeast Gulf
Coast this morning and to the northern panhandle by midday. The
front is not overly strong, primarily small craft winds
associated with the feature, it does have a cooler pool of air
behind it that will will be lowering snow levels across the
northern half of the panhandle over night. Predominately higher
terrain areas will see the better chance of any measurable snow.
Expect that chances of rain will diminish overnight after the
feature passes through. A weak onshore flow continues behind the
feature so low chances may persist overnight along the western
slopes in the flow into Monday night.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/...A series of shortwave troughs
will impact the panhandle through the week.

Tuesday looks to be the break day with a ridge building aloft and a
transient high pressure keeping most of the precipitation out of the
panhandle. The northern areas may see a few showers and a small
chance of some enhanced northerly winds up to 15 knots in Lynn Canal
during this time. Furthermore, light winds and plenty of leftover
moisture will drive some fog development across the area.

Unfortunately for those who wanted 'drier' weather, another system
looks to push in from the gulf on Wednesday. From yesterday, the low
center does indeed look to track just north of Kodiak island which
will limit the increased wind speeds for most of the outer coast.
Unfortunately, the system does seem stronger than initially
anticipated; therefore, gales are expected from Cape Spencer
northward along the NE gulf coast. Expecting to see a burst of small
craft winds in the inner channels as the thermal gradient pushes
northward. The timing on this front is still in flux however.

In terms of model usage, unfortunately, due to the constant
shortwaves moving along the main trough located near the Aleutians
from Tuesday into Wednesday onward, model agreement continues to be
less than ideal. Heavy ensemble influences were used during the
Thursday time period to represent high uncertainty on additional
surface lows developing. Ensemble guidance does seem to converge on
a 980 mb low moving into the northern gulf for Thursday into Friday.
After conferring with WPC, current thought it another low center is
likely to develop to the southwest of the southern panhandle moving
northeast. While this scenario may or may not play out, the overall
pattern for SE AK is active.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread MVFR conditions and isolated IFR conditions
will continue through Monday morning for the Panhandle. As the
first front continues moving through the area, conditions in many
areas could see improvement to VFR conditions from North to South
before another weaker system moves in through Monday afternoon.
This weaker system will bring more rain showers and some increased
winds primarily to the northern half of the Panhandle. Significant
LLWS is not expected with this weaker system.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...STJ

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