Gale Warning 20, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 7 2023

.SHORT TERM...Saturday night forecast didn't change much as it
was already on track with the low tracking NW through the Gulf of
Alaska. The stronger wind is primarily focused along the panhandle
coast and through a few of the inner channels. The rain is over
the southern half as of Saturday afternoon and will move north and
NW Tonight and early Sunday.

The most noticeable change was the back  edge appeared to be
sharper and moving northward faster starting early Sunday morning
across the southern panhandle, and reaching the northern panhandle
by late evening. The quicker end to the precipitation suggests
clearing clouds and this will lead to cooler overnight lows Sunday
night into Monday.

The gusty winds Saturday evening will be diminishing as the
trough panhandle travels NW along Strong wind headlines for gusts
of 40 to 55 mph this evening.

.LONG TERM...The mid-range forecast was primarily focused on
early next week again. Yesterday, PoPS and cloud cover were
lowered based on latest guidance so today was used to double
check and see if today's guidance still supported decisions made
yesterday. And to put it simply, the latest data shows we are
still good for launch on low PoPS and sunshine early this
upcoming week.

With yesterday's update, the idea behind the forecast was the
outflow winds would lower the chances for precip - so PoPs were
lowered even more compared to the day before. Today's update kept
the low precip chances in Monday's forecast through Tuesday. The
exception is the far southern panhandle Monday morning where a
quick hit of showers is possible, but even then, skies are
expected to clear out quickly in the afternoon.

Tuesday night into Wednesday is when the next round of rain and
snow may track through SE AK from south to north. The source of
the rain and snow isn't real strong, so low confidence on exact
timing, but current forecasted amounts are minimal with low
impacts.

Late next week, Thursday/Friday, there is early evidence in the
models of a decently strong low pressure center tracking through
the eastern gulf. High uncertainty is wrapped all around that
part of the forecast so stay plugged into the forecast as we get
closer.

Forecast temperatures were overall, allowed to ride. The
exception was warming the southern areas a little bit, based on
latest NBM guidance, Tuesday night and Wednesday. This made sense
as this time frame is when the next round of precip and clouds
will move in, which would bring in warmer air, compared to
Monday's temps.

Inner channel winds were kept at around 20 to 30 knots for the
channels that normally get the quicker winds speeds during outflow
wind events.

&&

.AVIATION...Main batch of rain and lower ceilings associated with
the enhancement of cloudcover/precipitation on the east side of a
low coming up the eastern Gulf of Alaska will continue
progressing northward up across the SE Alaska Panhandle tonight
into early Sunday. Periods of ceilings at or below 1500 ft agl
and visibilities periodically down to 1-2 miles in mostly rain
central and south with a mix of snow and rain to the north. We are
fairly confident (based on model consensus) that ceilings and
visibilities will start to lift over the southern half of the
Panhandle after 07Z and after 13Z to the north as the low tracks
north into the northeastern Gulf of Alaska. Tomorrow (especially
after 10 AM) looks to be more favorable for aviation operations as
compared to today across SE Alaska with the exception of Yakutat
where low ceilings (IFR/LIFR) and precipitation look to likely
prevail into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Gale force winds of 35 to 40 kt in a band along the
trough/front of the low tracking NW across the eastern Gulf of
Alaska for tonight. Winds diminish to small craft or less for
Sunday. Another band will be lifting towards Dixon Entrance Sunday
afternoon evening so Small Craft could be trying to advance into
the southern panhandle then.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for Akz018.
      Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323.
      Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...Garmon

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