Gale Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

560 
FZAK51 PAJK 021251
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-030415-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Southerly winds over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will steadily
diminish through Monday. The associated parent low will remain
near Kodiak Island and weaken through Monday night. Outlook.
Another gale force low will enter the south-central Gulf on
Tuesday and track north to near Prince William Sound Tuesday
night. 

$$

PKZ011-030415-
Glacier Bay-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft early in the morning then 2 ft
or less. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Rain showers in the evening. Snow showers. Rain showers
late. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-030415-
Northern Lynn Canal-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the morning. Seas 4
ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-030415-
Southern Lynn Canal-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-030415-
Icy Strait-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-030415-
Cross Sound-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the morning. Seas
12 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. S
swell. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-030415-
Stephens Passage-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt early in the morning.  Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Snow showers in the evening. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-030415-
Northern Chatham Strait-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-030415-
Southern Chatham Strait-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean
entrances, seas 16 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 14 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft, except 15 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-030415-
Frederick Sound-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt early in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Out of interior passes,
gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-030415-
Sumner Strait-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 45 kt early in the morning. Seas 6 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the evening. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except
10 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-030415-
Clarence Strait-
351 AM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Out
of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances,
seas 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt
in the morning. Seas 9 ft, except 12 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1012 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

.UPDATE...We just issued another update to extend the High Wind
Warning for Prince of Wales Island until 6 AM when just about all
of the model guidance has the surface winds dropping off. Still
getting gusts to near 60 kts for some portions of the Island,
especially the southern areas and Hydaburg.

We will also need to extend the Gale Warning for Stephens Passage
here shortly as well as some Marine Exchange sites showing gale
force sustained winds and strong high end gale force gusts there,
and while we do expect Clarence Strait to continue dropping below
storm force winds, we will need to have Gale Warnings there
through the early morning.

Added light snow in for Skagway as the persistent northeast winds
there have brought in some colder low level air. Not expecting
much for accumulation in Skagway through the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 6 PM AKST JAN 1...

SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/...Rain showers will persist
through much of this short term forecast period with snow showers
near the border on both highways. Coming up just short of advisory
snow totals near the Haines Border Customs office, so no advisory
issued this afternoon. Lesser amounts expected near White Pass.

The main issue today has been wind intensity. Issued a high wind
warning for the northeast gulf coast and Prince of Wales Island.
Let the Yakutat warning go with the afternoon forecast but kept
the POW warning going for a few more hours. So far, no damage
reported and winds will relax to more comfortable levels during
this short term forecast.

With the front and attendant warmer low level air past us,
Southeast Alaska will see a period of steady or slowly falling
temperatures through Monday night. Some locations that saw just
rain today may be seeing snow again by Monday night. QPF values
not overly impressive, so no watch, warning, or advisory concerns.

LONG TERM...The active weather pattern remains across SE AK,
though not to quite the intensity of some of the previous systems
this past season. A series of troughs and ridges advance across
the panhandle, driven up from the SE as energy races downstream of
a powerful jet over the N Pacific which is reaching upwards of
170 kt per operational guidance from the GFS and Euro.

Despite the active weather, snow does not look to be as pressing a
concern across most areas other than the N panhandle through the
first half of the week. A lack of significant cold air outflow
will correlate with continued WAA from various systems moving into
the area, with rain being the favored form of precipitation as a
result, though some snow will increasingly mix in towards the
second half of the week across the N half of the panhandle. Most
systems through the duration of the week ahead will see their
cores stay largely offshore as they recurve around a broad area of
lower pressure across the Gulf. This should limit the extent that
strong winds are present across the panhandle. The possibility of
a stronger system arriving late in the week is present, but this
far out, sharp differences in timing, track, and strength continue
to remain. The timing of these systems remains in flux, as
operational guidance struggles to pin down their actual location
as well as the interactions between the various systems as the
result of the fujiwhara effect. At this time though, think it
likely that many locations will enjoy periods of drier weather
(and perhaps fog), between the systems.

Temperatures will remain largely moderate through the time period as
WAA associated with the systems passing through keeps the colder air
at bay in most locations, a trend towards cooler weather is likely
through the second half of the week, but bitterly cold weather is
unlikely. Winds will reach gale force or small craft at the
strongest through the time period, with periods of lower wind
speeds in between various systems. Forecaster confidence is
average.

AVIATION.../00z issuance/ Very strong wind gusts and LLWS across
the region as a convective cold front tracks across the area
(lightning detected off of Haida Gwaii). Freezing levels have
risen above 3kft across the central panhandle with periods of
moderate rain expected to fall at all TAF sites through the night.
Wind gusts and LLWS will take until 6-12z to start trending down.
Monday, showers remain likely with some gusty winds, but not as
strong as Sunday. The gusty winds will keep conditions slightly
elevated compared to MOS guidance and only into the MVFR category.

MARINE...Peaks conditions in terms of wind and waves occurred
late this morning or early this afternoon. Winds of 50 kts were
observed. And a storm warning for 50 kt in Clarence Strait was
added to the afternoon forecast. Combined seas to 28 feet in the
eastern Gulf have been reported by the buoys. As expected, frontal
winds are diminishing along the outer coast and will continue to
do so through Monday night. Seas are expected to abate to around
17 ft overnight and around 14 ft by Monday afternoon. Southeastern
gulf waters will see rising seas again Monday night as the next
gale force low enters the south central gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Monday for AKZ317-327.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ323-325-329.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ328.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-051>053.

&&

UPDATE...JG/EAL
SHORT TERM/MARINE...FCF
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...NAF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
633 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HYDABURG                55.21N 132.83W
01/01/2023  M77 MPH          PRINCE OF WALES-HYDAK   AWOS

            PEAK GUST AT HYDABURG SEA PLANE BASE AWOS.
            PEAK GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 60 MPH SINCE AROUND
            8 AM SUNDAY.

0154 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST THORNE BAY              55.69N 132.52W
01/01/2023  M62 MPH          PRINCE OF WALES-HYDAK   MESONET

            PEAK GUST AT THORNE BAY RAWS WX STATION.

&&