Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKST Sat Jan 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An active pattern continues over Northern Alaska with a very large
amplitude ridge parked over the Northern Pacific and extending
north over Alaska and to near the North Pole. Several shortwave
moving north along the ridge will provide periods of snow,
freezing rain and gusty winds over the West Coast, the Western and
Central Interior as well as the Central Alaska Range and the
Western Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast.

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.DISCUSSION...

Models...
The 28/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and the 12z upper air observations. The 12z model suite
also verified well against the 18z surface analysis as well as a
a 18z sounding at PAFA launched for mixed precipitation
potential. There remains considerable spread on the position of a
front that is expected to stall over the Southern Interior with
significant differences on the amount of snowfall and the
location of the snowfall as well as the potential for freezing
rain and the locations for potential freezing rain. The GFS model
ultimately verified best against the special 18z sounding and has
verified best at least locally in the Alaksa Interior for the past
several model runs and was leaned on heavily for snowfall
potential and location of that snowfall over the Southern Interior
as well as potential for and location for mixed precipitation
over the Southern Interior.

Upper Levels and Analysis...
a high amplitude ridge anchored by a 580 dam high pressure ridge
over the Northern Pacific extend north over Alaska to near the
North Pole. Several shortwaves are pushing north along the West
Coast of Alaska with the first near Kotzebue Sound and a stronger
wave now over the Aleutians. The wave over Kotzebue Sound will
continue to weaken as it moves north over the Western Arctic
Coast tonight and into the Arctic Ocean on Sunday. A surge of warm
air will move north along the Coast and inland over the Western
Interior as this next wave moves north on Sunday. Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued for mixed precipitation for portions
of the YK Delta and Upper Kuskokwim Valley for mixed precipitation
for Sunday into Monday. Snow is also expected in the Central and
Eastern Interior mainly south of the Yukon River beginning Sunday
and continuing into Tuesday afternoon as a front stalls just
north of Fairbanks. Expect storm total snowfall through Tuesday
afternoon of 4 to 7 inches north of Fairbanks with 3 to 5 inches
in the Fairbanks areas and 2 to 4 inches in the North Pole areas.
Generally less than 2 inches is expected south of Nenana and
Delta Junction. There is a slight risk of freezing rain mixing in
with the snow south of Nenana along the Parks Highway Sunday
morning. The next front approaches the West Coast by Tuesday with
another round of precipitation and gusty winds.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow and blowing snow in the
Kotzebue Sound region will continue into the evening before
diminishing tonight. Light freezing rain has mixed with the snow
along the coast at times but is expected to diminish later this
evening as this system pushes north over the Brooks Range. The
next in a series of fronts moves north across the area on Sunday.
Expect cloudy conditions with periods of snow, and occasionally
gusty winds with freezing rain expected to mix in south of a
Unalakleet to Galena line with all snow to the north of that
line. Expect generally less than 3 inches of accumulation. High
temperatures today will be in the teens to lower 30s above. Low
temperatures tonight will range from single digits above to the
mid 20s.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...
As the 1038 high pressure system north of the coast continues to
weaken the gusty winds along and near the northern foothills of
the Brooks Range continue to diminish improving visibility in the
area as blowing snow diminishes. A front moving north over the
area will produce light snow over the coastal areas. High
temperatures today will range from the single digits above to the
teens above. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 10
above to the single digits below.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front moving into the Interior will stall just north of
Fairbanks Sunday morning and will continue in place into Tuesday
afternoon. Snow is expected to develop Sunday morning and will
continue into Tuesday afternoon with the heaviest snowfall
expected to fall in the higher terrain north of Fairbanks. Storm
total snowfall of 4 to 7 inches is expected in the higher terrain
north of Fairbanks with 3 to 5 inches expected in the Fairbanks
area through Tuesday afternoon. 2 to 4 inches is expected in the
North Pole area with 1 to 2 inches expected in the Delta Junction,
Nenana, Healy and Denali Park areas. There is a slight chance
that freezing rain may mix with the snow at times along the Parks
Highway south of Nenana on Sunday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&