Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1229 PM AKST Sun Jan 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A generally quiet Interior pattern will persist into the middle of
next week as slightly warmer than average temps continue. Some
blowing and drifting snow over Interior summits, however, will be
the main hazard. The Tanana Valley Jet will continue to blow, as
well. Otherwise, the main action continues over the coastal
regions as gale force northeast winds will keep blowing and
drifting concerns in place, especially near the Bering Strait and
across Saint Lawrence Island.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is an Interior shortwave ridge in place with a series of
weak shortwave troughs moving northwest across the YK Delta. A
weak associated warm front is advecting moisture north along the
front which is producing light snow over the Delta into the
Bering Strait. There is a digging arctic trough, analyzed at 502
dam, moving south toward the Arctic Coast. At the surface, a 974
mb low is moving into Bristol Bay with a persistently strong
approximately 1046 mb high over the high Arctic.

Model Discussion...
The models are in very good agreement with the synoptic details
with the usual biases such as winds and precip being the bigger
differentiators. We favored the NAM nest and Canadian RGEM for
winds as they better depict strong coastal winds. We favored the
ECMWF for light precip, as most of the precip will be light and it
shows better coverage than the other models.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Continued warmer than average temps and overall quiet weather will
continue for the Interior. A moderate pressure gradient will
continue, however, which will support an ongoing Tanana Valley Jet
and Interior summit winds. Thus, blowing snow over summits will
continue into tonight before the gradient relaxes a little.
Otherwise, light snow chances will shift north of the White
Mountains tonight and Monday as a warm front aloft moves north.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong northeast gradient will continue which will support gale
force winds along the Bering Coast and over Saint Lawrence Island.
Winter weather advisories will remain in place as snow showers
increase visibility reductions along with increasing winds. Gusts
as high as 60 mph will impact Saint Lawrence Island Monday and
persisting through Tuesday. Elsewhere, light snow will shift over
the remainder of the West Coast and into the southern Brooks Range
Monday with accumulations up to 2 inches.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Little change on the North Slope with easterly flow dominating. A
cold arctic trough will drop into the region and bring cooler
temps and wind chills tonight but it will not last long as south
flow redevelops Tuesday. Snow will accompany the south flow with 1
to maybe 2 inches of accumulation through Wednesday. With the
continued strong west arctic pressure gradient, the winter weather
advisory will remain in place through Monday evening.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Thursday through Saturday will be much the same weather as the
Mainland remains in between and arctic trough to the north and a
Gulf of Alaska low farther south. Models are not in good agreement
yet for the weekend, but there is a signal that the pattern will
shift to a more active Pacific pattern as the atmospheric river
which has been impacting California shifts north toward the Gulf
Coast. This may mean more snow chances for the Interior beginning
Sunday or Monday. Stay tuned...

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-207-213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-221.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Gale Warning for PKZ220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ225.

&&

Ahsenmacher