Wind Advisory 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

772 
WWAK73 PAFG 110524
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
924 PM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

AKZ226-120000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0008.230412T0000Z-230412T1400Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
924 PM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Tuesday to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

651 
WWAK73 PAFG 111459
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
659 AM AKDT Tue Apr 11 2023

AKZ226-111600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0008.230412T0000Z-230412T1400Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
659 AM AKDT Tue Apr 11 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...



$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
616 AM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A very cold pattern over Northern Alaska will persist through the
weekend with periods of light snow. The southern Interior will
warm slightly on Wed and Tue, but cool back down on Thu.

Gusty winds with blowing snow over the Alaska Highway and Alaska
Range Passes will diminishing rapidly this morning.

Light snow over the Eastern Interior will taper off from the
Southwest today, with most areas having less than an inch. The
area northeast of Eagle, Ft Yukon and Coldfoot can expect another
1-2 inches today, with the snow tapering off from the south this
afternoon.

The North Slope will have snow today that will taper off tonight,
with 1-2 inches accumulation. There will be west winds 20 to 30
mph and reduced visibility in blowing snow over the Eastern
Arctic Coast today.

Snow and blowing snow will spread over the YK Delta by early Tue,
with snow spreading northeast across the Interior to Fairbanks by
Tue afternoon, and to Old Crow Tue night. Snow will continue into
Wed but diminish over SW AK on Wed. Expect 2-4 inches of snow in
a band from the YK Delta to Fairbanks to Old Crow by Wed. May need
to issued Winter Weather Advisories for these areas starting on
Tue.

Aloft...
The long wave trough over Alaska will persist through the weekend.
A deep 4940 Meter 500 mb height low near Kotzebue will move to
Kiana this afternoon, to near Umiat on Tue afternoon, and to Pt
Thompson on Wed afternoon. This will set up Westerly flow over the
Interior on Tue and SW flow on Wed which will advect moisture over
the Interior on those days.

A strong short wave trough from Eagle to Barter Island will move
to Utqiagvik northeast by 4pm Mon then continue NW. A second
trailing short wave from Eagle east will move to Deadhorse to
Barter Island by 4PM Mon, then north of the Arctic Coast Mon
night. There will be an area of moderate snow north of each
trough, with snow tapering off south of the troughs.

A third short wave trough over the Western Interior will move
Ambler to McGrath by 4PM Mon, then to Deadhorse to Northway by 4AM
Tue, and east of the ALCAN Border on Tue. There will be isolated
snow showers wit this feature.

A fourth short wave in the Western Bering Sea will move to the
Central Bering Sea today, and to the Southeast Bering Sea Mon
night, over SW Alaska on Tue, then track east across the Southern
Interior Tue night and Wed. Expect another round of snow with
this.

Surface...
A 998 mb low in MacKenzie Bay will move to 60 NM north of Nuiqsut
as a 1002 mb low by 4pm Mon, to 60 NM north of Utqiagvik as a
1003 mb low by 4am Tue, then remain in place through 4pm Tue
before moving to 200 NM NE of Barter Island as a 1002 mb low by
4am Wed, then persist there through 4pm Wed. An occluded Arctic
front front that lies just north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska
will persist into Tue, then move to Atqasuk to 200 NM northeast of
Barter Island by 4am Wed, then to Nuiqsut to 200 NM northeast of
Barter Island by 4pm Wed. This is causing snow along the Arctic
Coast that will move north of the Coast tonight. Expect 1-2 inches
of snow through tonight along the Arctic Coast. The surface low
is causing west winds 20-30 mph over the Eastern Arctic Coast that
will spread to Deadhorse late this morning as the low moves west,
then diminish at Barter Island this afternoon and at Deadhorse
this evening as the low continues west and the winds weaken over
the Eastern Arctic.

A low pressure trough from Unalakleet south will move east today.
There are some clouds and flurries with this that should diminish
this afternoon.

An occluded front in the Central Bering Sea, will stretch east
over the Southeast Bering Sea tonight, and move over the Yukon
Delta on Tue, then move to the YK Delta to Denali by 4am Wed, and
to Eagle to Delta Junction by 4pm Wed. This will cause snow and
blowing snow to spread over the YK Delta by early Tue, with snow
spreading northeast across the Interior to Fairbanks by Tue
afternoon, and to Old Crow Tue night. Snow will continue into Wed
but diminish over SW AK on Wed and spread over the SE Interior Wed
PM. Expect 2-4 inches of snow in a band from the YK Delta to
Fairbanks to Old Crow by Wed. May need to issued Winter Weather
Advisories for the YK Delta for blowing snow starting Tue AM, and
for 2-4 inches of snow zones 215 221 220 222 for Tue PM into Wed
PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft. Models show similar solutions
aloft through 4pm Tue. After that time, the GFS lifts most of its
short wave energy NE of ALaska over the Beaufort Sea while the
NAM, ECMWF and Canadian models keep a much deeper trough over
Interior Alaska through Wed and Thu. At this time favor the
Consensus of the NAM, ECMWF and Canadian models for Tue night
and Wed, and likely into Thu.

At 850 MB temperatures range from -30C over NW AK to -14C along
the ALCAN Border. Temperatures see little chance today, then warm
about 6C over the YK Delta tonight, then warm 6C over the Southern
Interior on Tue, with significant cooling over the West Coast and
Interior Wed night and Thu. Surface temps

 and persist into Tue Night before move southeast on
Wed.will follow similar
trends.

With precipitation, models show similar areal coverage and
amounts. Will use a blend of model precipitation fields with the
following caveats: Will show snow likely over the NE Interior
today with another 1-2 inches accumulation, diminishing form the
south through the day. Will show snow across the North Slope today
then tapering off from the south tonight with 1-2 inches
accumulation. Will show snow likely over the YK Delta by early
Tue spreading ne to Fairbanks by Tue afternoon, and to Old Crow
Tue night, then diminish over SW AK on Wed. Expect 2-4 inches of
snow in a band from the YK Delta to Fairbanks to Old Crow by Wed.

At the surface at 06Z, models all verify 4 mb too weak on the low
in MacKenzie Bay/Beaufort Sea and 2 mb too weak on the low near
Burwash Landing. This is causing stronger winds than models
forecast over the SE Interior and Alaska Range now but they will
diminish quickly this morning as the Burwash low moves east. The
deeper low in the Beaufort will likely remain deeper than models
indicate through tonight, and will move to just north of Deadhorse
by noon, and to just north of Utqiagvik late tonight. Will use a
blend of the NAM and Canadian Models as their surface solutions
are closest to what is occuring at 06Z, but bump up winds along
the Arctic Coast 5-10 kt above modes speeds over the Eastern
Arctic Coast through noon today, at Deadhorse now through through
this afternoon as the low moves west, and at Utqiagvik tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

HYDROLOGY...Rivers remain ice covered, but overflow and open
leads have been reported on many of the rivers. There are no
significant concerns at this time, but caution should be used
when traveling on rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-220.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-816-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1244 PM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

AKZ212-214>216-227-111400-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-Yukon Delta-
Lower Yukon Valley-Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk,
Shaktoolik, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, Marshall,
Nunam Iqua, Pitkas Point, Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross,
Shageluk, Anvik, Flat, Galena, Nulato, Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby,
Koyukuk, McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
1244 PM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

...Snow for the West Coast and Western Interior...
A weather front moving into the YK Delta and southern portions of
the Western Interior will bring another round of snow beginning
late tonight and continuing into Wednesday morning. Expect storm
total snowfall of 2 to 4 inches along the coast south of
Unalakleet and the Lower YK Delta. Expect 3 to 5 inches in the
Lower Yukon Valley. Expect storm total snowfall of 6 to 10 inches
in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley through Wednesday morning.