Wind Advisory 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

749 
WWAK73 PAFG 201301
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
501 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

AKZ226-201415-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0005.230320T1800Z-230321T1800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
501 AM AKDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...



$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
623 AM AKDT Sun Mar 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface temperatures will be above normal over Northern AK today
and Monday, then remain near normal through mid-week, then cool
below normal late in the week.

An occluded front over the Southern Interior will move over the
Western Interior and Eastern North Slope by this afternoon then
north of the Arctic Coast tonight. This is causing winds through
the Alaska Range Passes and over Dalton Highway Summits this
morning that will decrease by this afternoon, while winds will
increase across the Brooks Range Passes and over the Eastern
Arctic Coast this afternoon.

A very strong storm moving northeast across the Bering Sea today
will move to near Gambell as a 960 mb low by 4pm Mon, and to the
Chukotsk Peninsula as a 980 mb low by 4pm Tue. This will bring
strong winds and blizzard conditions to St Lawrence Island and
the Yukon Delta late tonight, and to the Bering Strait and
Southern Seward Peninsula by early Mon. This will spread snow and
blowing snow with winds gusting to 40 mph to the remainder of the
West Coast and the Western Interior on Mon. Snow will continue
across the West Coast and Western Interior into Tue. Winds will
peak out Monday, then decrease slowly on Tue. Expect storm totals
of 2-6 inches Sun night through Tue southwest of Buckland to
Mcgrath, with the heaviest snow along south facing slopes such as
Nulato Hills and hills just north of Nome.

Aloft...
A long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge over the Western
CONUS, Western Canada and Eastern Canada, with a cut off low over
the Gulf of AK, another ridge over the Central Pacific and Eastern
Bering Sea, and a long wave trough over the Sea of Okhotsk and
Western Bering Sea.

A short wave trough over the Arctic Coast will move north today.
A second short wave trough over the Alaska Range will move north
to Galena to Bettles to Eagle today, over the Eastern North Slope
tonight and north of the Arctic Coast Mon. There are a few areas
of light snow north of this trough. Winds will increase along the
Alaska Range following this trough this AM then decrease this
afternoon. Winds over the Brooks Range will increase tonight as
the trough passes.

A strong short wave rotating through the long wave trough is now
south of Kamchatka and will move northeast into the Bering Sea
today, to the Northern and Eastern Being Sea on Mon, and then
start to move over Mainland AK on Tue. This strong short wave
will dig through the Bering Sea ridge and pull the long wave
trough east over Mainland Alaska later this week. This short wave
supports a very strong surface low that will become vertically
stacked under this feature by Mon. This will set up southerly
flow aloft over Alaska tonight that will last through the middle
of the week keeping temperatures warm. As the long wave moves
over AK in the second half of the week temperatures will fall.

Surface...
High pressure over Banks Island has a ridge that extends east over
the Beaufort Sea.

A 990 mb low near Illiamna will move south and weaken today.An
weather front over the Alaska Range will move over the Western
Interior and Eastern North Slope by this afternoon then north of
the Arctic Coast of Alaska tonight. There are areas of light snow
along this front that will spread north with the front. East winds
gusting to 40 mph over the Tanana Valley near Delta and of the
Elliott and Dalton Highway Summits will diminish today as this
front moves north. Gust south winds through Alaska Range Passes
will diminish this morning. As the front moves over the North
Slope this afternoon, east winds will increase to 25 mph near
Barter Island, and south winds will gust to 40 mph through Brooks
Range Passes. Those North Slope winds will diminish late tonight
as the front moves north of the coast.

A strong low southwest of Shemya will move to 80 NM west of St
Matthew Island as a 956 mb low by 4am Mon, to near Gambell as a
960 mb low by 4pm Mon, and to the Chukotsk Peninsula as a 980 mb
low by 4pm Tue. This will bring SE gales to most of the West
Coast tonight through Mon night. Could winds drop dramatically at
St Lawrence Island Mon afternoon as the low moves over the area,
then see strong SW gales over Mon night as the poison tail
portion of the occluded front moves over that area. See Synopsis
above for details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 4AM Sun, then the NAM/ECMWF and Canadian
models take the low aloft over the Interior NE more quickly than
the GFS. Models are quite similar with deep low aloft moving NE
across the Bering Sea Sun, into the Northern Bering Sea on Mon,
and over the Chukotsk Peninsula on Tue. After that time the models
remain similar with the long wave pattern but start to deviate on
short wave movement. At this time favor a blend of the NAM/ECMWF
and Canadian aloft, and exclude the GFS since it differs from all
others in the low aloft over the Interior Sun and Mon.

At 850 MB, temperatures range from 0C over Eastern Alaska to -10C
over the West Coast of Alaska. Temperatures see little change
today, then cool 4-6C over Eastern Alaska tonight. Warming
accompanies the storm approaching the West Coast on Mon but
remains below freezing. Temperatures cool dramatically over the
West Coast mid-week, and over Eastern Alaska late in the week.
Surface temperatures will follow same general trends, with above
normal temps all of Northern AK today and Mon, then remaining
near normal through mid-week, then cooling below normal late in
the week.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through Tue.
Will use a blend of models for precip location and amounts with
the following caveats: Definite snow moving into zones 213 and
214 by midnight tonight, spreading to zones 211 and 215 by 6am
Mon. Will see likely snow snow in SW portion of zones 210, 216 and
227 Mon PM. Likely or definite snow will continues all these
areas into Tue. Will see a chance of snow zone 207, 208, 209, 217
Mon night and Tue, and in zones 219, 221 on Tue. Expect storm
totals of 2-6 inches Sun night through Tue SW of Buckland to
Mcgrath, heaviest along south facing slopes such as Nulato Hills
and hills just north of Nome.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well on most features,
except that the low near Anadyr is 2-3 mb deeper than models
indicate. Models have similar solutions at the surface through
4am Tue, with the NAM and ECMWF having similar solutions through
4PM Tue. Will use the NAM for surface wind speed details such as
through AK and Brooks Range Passes. Expect SE Gales over the
Northern Bering and zones 213 and 214 by midnight Sun night,
spreading over Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound/Southern Chukchi
Sea Mon, with gusts to 40 mph spreading to zones 208, 210, 215,
217 on Mon. Winds will max out Mon PM, decrease slightly late Mon
night, then continue to decrease on Tue.

East winds gusting to 40 mph near Finger Mtn will decrease this
morning. South winds gusting to 40 mph through AK Range passes
will decrease this afternoon, then increase to gust 40 mph again
on Mon. South winds gusting to 30 mph through Brooks Range Passes
Sun PM into Mon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...SE Gales over the West
Coast of Alaska Mon and Mon Night will cause elevated sea levels
along the West Coast with water pushing up on top of ice near the
coast Mon and Tue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ212-215.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-214.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ208-216-217.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-221.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-209.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-816-817-850-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-806-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-808-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&