Wind Advisory 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

274 
WWAK73 PAFG 200132
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
432 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

AKZ832-201500-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WI.Y.0041.231121T0900Z-231122T0600Z/
Dalton Highway Summits-
Including the cities of Gobblers Knob, Prospect Creek, 
Finger Mountain, The Yukon River Bridge, 
and The Dalton Highway from MP 39 to MP 164
432 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 9 PM
AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Dalton Highway Summits.

* WHEN...From midnight Monday night to 9 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Reductions in visibility from blowing snow. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Recent snowfall will cause blowing and
  drifting snow with reduced visibility. Travel may be
  particularly difficult over summits.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ834-838-846-201500-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WI.Y.0041.231121T0900Z-231122T0300Z/
White Mountains and High Terrain South of the Yukon River-
Upper Chena River Valley-Central Interior-
Including the cities of Livengood, Circle Hot Springs, 
Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, 
The Steese Highway from MP 85 to MP 124, 
The Elliott Highway from MP 32 to MP 134, 
The Dalton Highway from MP 0 to MP 38, Chena Hot Springs, 
Chena Hot Springs Road east of MP 34, Tanana, Minto, 
Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, and Lake Minchumina
432 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM
AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...White Mountains and High Terrain South of the Yukon 
  River, Upper Chena River Valley and Central Interior.

* WHEN...From midnight Monday night to 6 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Reductions in visibility from blowing snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Recent snowfall is expected to be blown 
  around from these gusty winds and result in rapid reductions in 
  visibility on area roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ847>850-201500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0041.231121T0000Z-231121T1500Z/
Northern Denali Borough-Southern Denali Borough-
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, 
Anderson, The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, The Parks Highway from MP 202 MP 237, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259, 
Trims Camp, and The Richardson Highway from MP 202 to MP 224
432 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Denali Borough, Southern Denali Borough, 
  Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp and Eastern Alaska 
  Range South of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Monday to 6 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Rapid reductions in visibility from blowing snow. 
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Recent snowfall will cause blowing and
  drifting snow with reduced visibility. Travel may be
  particularly difficult over summits.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

813 
WWAK73 PAFG 200850
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1150 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

AKZ834-838-846-201000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0041.231121T0900Z-231122T0300Z/
White Mountains and High Terrain South of the Yukon River-
Upper Chena River Valley-Central Interior-
Including the cities of Livengood, Circle Hot Springs, 
Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, 
The Steese Highway from MP 85 to MP 124, 
The Elliott Highway from MP 32 to MP 134, 
The Dalton Highway from MP 0 to MP 38, Chena Hot Springs, 
Chena Hot Springs Road east of MP 34, Tanana, Minto, 
Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, and Lake Minchumina
1150 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind Advisory has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory for
blowing snow and low visibility. 

$$

AKZ832-201000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0041.231121T0900Z-231122T0600Z/
Dalton Highway Summits-
Including the cities of Gobblers Knob, Prospect Creek, 
Finger Mountain, The Yukon River Bridge, 
and The Dalton Highway from MP 39 to MP 164
1150 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind Advisory has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory for
blowing snow and low visibility. 

$$

AKZ847>850-201700-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0041.231121T0000Z-231121T1500Z/
Northern Denali Borough-Southern Denali Borough-
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, 
Anderson, The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, The Parks Highway from MP 202 MP 237, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259, 
Trims Camp, and The Richardson Highway from MP 202 to MP 224
1150 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Denali Borough, Southern Denali Borough, 
  Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp and Eastern Alaska 
  Range South of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Monday to 6 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Rapid reductions in visibility from blowing snow. 
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Recent snowfall will cause blowing and
  drifting snow with reduced visibility. Travel may be
  particularly difficult over summits.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

349 
WWAK73 PAFG 201438
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
538 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

AKZ847>850-201545-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0041.231121T0000Z-231121T1500Z/
Northern Denali Borough-Southern Denali Borough-
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, 
Anderson, The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, The Parks Highway from MP 202 MP 237, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259, 
Trims Camp, and The Richardson Highway from MP 202 to MP 224
538 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ837-210200-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0042.231121T0300Z-231122T0600Z/
Delta Junction-
Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, and Deltana
538 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Delta Junction.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
659 AM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow across most of Northern Alaska diminishing on Mon,
with decreasing clouds late Mon and Tue. Expect one inch
accumulation most areas with up to 2-3 inches in NW AK and 1-2
inches over west facing upslope areas of the Interior. For Mon
night and Tue little if any precipitation is expected.

Cold Arctic air in place over Northern Alaska will remain through
Mon, with warming most areas Mon night and Tue due to compressional
warming under the building ridge aloft and increased mixing due
to increased surface winds in most areas, except the Upper Tanana
Valley, the Fairbanks bowl, and the Yukon Flats where strong
inversions will develop.

East winds will develop in the Tanana Valley from Delta Junction
west on Mon, gusting to 50 mph Mon PM into Tue. Northeast winds
gusting 40 mph along with low visibility in blowing snow will
develop over the uplands of the Steese, Elliot and Dalton Highways
north of Fairbanks and south of the Brooks Range late Mon Night
and continue into Tue.

A very strong storm moving north over the western Bering Sea
today and Mon will move over Northeast Russia on Tue. This will
cause southerly gales to spread north to the Northern Bering Sea
and Chukchi Sea on Mon and continue into Mon night then decrease
slowly on Tue. Could see gusts 50 to 60 mph over St Lawrence Is,
on the Bering Strait and near Point Hope late tonight through
Mon night. This has lead to High Surf Advisories  along the West
Coast west of Nome and Cape Krusenstern Mon into Tue.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a trough over Western Canada,
and a ridge over the Eastern Bering and Western Alaska, while a
second trough moves is over Eastern Russia and the Western Bering
Sea. By Mon the ridge will build over Mainland AK while the
second trough moves over the Bering Sea and NE Russia then
persists into Tue.

A short wave trough stretching from Utqiagvik to Norton Sound
will move to Deadhorse to McGrath 3pm Sun, then east of the ALCAN
Border by 3am Mon. Light snow east of the trough diminish to
flurries west of the trough. Southwest facing slopes such as NW AK
and the Hills East of Fairbanks could get upslope conditions with
several more inches of snow but most areas will get an inch or
less.

A second short wave trough over the North Bering Sea will move to
the Bering Strait to the YK Delta by 3pm Sun, to Deadhorse to
McGrath by 4am Mon, then east of the ALCAN Border Mon PM. Light
snow will continue with this feature then taper of west of the
trough with clouds clearing as strong ridging builds over AK late
Mon into Tue.

Surface...
A 1005 mb low 150 NM west of Point Hope will move to 250 NM north
of Point Hope as a 1008 mb low by 3am Mon, then dissipate. A
weather front stretching from this low east to Barter Island
remain along the Arctic Coast of Alaska through 3PM Mon, then move
north of the Arctic Coast Mon night.

High pressure over the Interior will move along the Alaska Range
and ALCAN Border this afternoon, then strengthen tonight and
persist into Tue. Due to moist west flow above the surface, the
high is not causing extensive clearing. Reference the loft
section above for weather details.

A strong low in the southwest Bering Sea will move north over the
Western Bering Sea today and Mon and to near Wrangel Is as a 988
mb low by 3pm Tue. This will cause southerly gales spreading
north to the Northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea on Mon and
continue into Mon night then decrease slowly on Tue. A High Surf
Advisory issued for the West Coast west of Nome and Cape
Krusenstern Mon into Tue due to the southerly gales.

This storm combined with the high pressure over the ALCAN Border
will cause easterly drainage winds down the Tanana Valley
increasing to 30 mph Mon afternoon, and to 50 mph Mon night into
Tue. This same set up will cause NE winds gusting 40 mph
developing over the uplands north of Fairbanks late Mon Night and
continue into Tue, which may cause blowing snow issues. AN SPS has
been issued for the winds in the Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z models verify well aloft. Models show similar solutions
through 3pm Mon. After that time there are slight differences on
track of the deep low aloft as it moves north over Eastern Russia,
with the GFS keeping the low further southwest than other models.
At this time favor a blend of models aloft through 3pm Mon, then
a blend of the ECMWF, Canadian and NAM for features aloft after
that time.

With precipitation, models show similar patterns of areal coverage
through Mon, but differ on amounts with the NAM showing heavier
amounts than other models. Will use a blend of models for areal
coverage through Mon, but exclude the NAM for amounts through Mon.
For Mon night and Tue little if any precipitation is expected.
Highlights include:
Light snow across most of Northern Alaska diminishing on Mon, with
decreasing clouds late Mon and Tue. Expect one inch accumulation
most areas with up to 2-3 inches in NW AK and 1-2 inches over west
facing upslope areas of the Interior. For Mon night and Tue little
if any precipitation is expected.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well on most features, except
that 1004 mb surface low 60 NM southwest of Point Hope is several
mb deeper and further SW than models indicate. The Canadian model
appears to resolve this best and is preferred at the surface
through Mon as a result. After 3pm Mon, with use a blend of the
NAM, ECMWF and Canadian models at the surface, excluding the GFS
since it is the outlier aloft after 3pm Mon. Highlight include:
SW winds 15-25 mph over the West Coast spreading to the Western
North Slope late today. Southerly gales spreading north to the
Northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea on Mon and continue into Mon
night then decrease slowly on Tue. Easterly drainage winds down
the Tanana Valley increasing to 30 gust 50 mph Mon PM, with NE
winds gusting 40 mph developing over the uplands north of
Fairbanks late Mon Night and continue into Tue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High Surf expected along the West Coast west of Nome and Cape
Krusenstern Mon into Tue due to southerly gales over the Northern
Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea. Sea levels will rise several feet
above normal and waves will push ashore over south facing shores.
Shishmaref will see elevated levels and could see erosion on the
lagoon side, but is not expected to see significant erosion waves
on the ocean side due to the southerly winds pushing waves
offshore.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory for AKZ801-815.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ820-821.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ840.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
&&

JB