Wind Advisory 36, NWS Fairbanks, AK

708 
WWAK73 PAFG 091243
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

AKZ812-832-834-846-092200-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-231109T2100Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0037.231109T1300Z-231109T2200Z/
South Slopes Of The Central Brooks Range-Dalton Highway Summits-
White Mountains and High Terrain South of the Yukon River-
Central Interior-
Including the cities of Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp, 
Iniakuk Lake, the Dalton Highway from MP 165 to MP 232, 
Gobblers Knob, Prospect Creek, Finger Mountain, 
The Yukon River Bridge, The Dalton Highway from MP 39 to MP 164, 
Livengood, Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, 
The Steese Highway from MP 85 to MP 124, 
The Elliott Highway from MP 32 to MP 134, 
The Dalton Highway from MP 0 to MP 38, Tanana, Minto, 
Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, and Lake Minchumina
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...South Slopes Of The Central Brooks Range, Dalton 
  Highway Summits, White Mountains and High Terrain South of the 
  Yukon River and Central Interior.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ849-100600-
/O.EXT.PAFG.HW.W.0008.231109T1800Z-231110T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ837-092200-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-231109T2200Z/
Delta Junction-
Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, and Deltana
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Delta Junction.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ847-848-100600-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.231109T1800Z-231110T0600Z/
Northern Denali Borough-Southern Denali Borough-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, 
Anderson, The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, and The Parks Highway from MP 202 MP 237
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Denali Borough and Southern Denali Borough.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Areas of blowing and drifting snow expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ850-100600-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.231109T1800Z-231110T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Trims Camp and The Richardson Highway
from MP 202 to MP 224
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power 
  outages may result. Areas of blowing and drifting snow 
  expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

978 
WWAK73 PAFG 092159
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1259 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

AKZ837-092300-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-231109T2200Z/
Delta Junction-
Including the cities of Delta Junction, Fort Greely, and Deltana
1259 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

Southerly winds have begun to prevail over earlier easterly
winds. Gusts to 40 mph through this evening may still occur as
downsloping, gap winds come off the Alaska Range today.

$$

AKZ812-832-834-846-092300-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-231109T2200Z/
South Slopes Of The Central Brooks Range-Dalton Highway Summits-
White Mountains and High Terrain South of the Yukon River-
Central Interior-
Including the cities of Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp, 
Iniakuk Lake, the Dalton Highway from MP 165 to MP 232, 
Gobblers Knob, Prospect Creek, Finger Mountain, 
The Yukon River Bridge, The Dalton Highway from MP 39 to MP 164, 
Livengood, Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, 
The Steese Highway from MP 85 to MP 124, 
The Elliott Highway from MP 32 to MP 134, 
The Dalton Highway from MP 0 to MP 38, Tanana, Minto, 
Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, and Lake Minchumina
1259 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

Easterly winds have slowly begun to decrease through the daylight
hours today, but may still gust to 40 mph into the evening hours
today.

$$

AKZ849-100600-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-231110T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259
1259 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts around 70 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile
  vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ847-848-850-100600-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-231110T0600Z/
Northern Denali Borough-Southern Denali Borough-
Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, 
Anderson, The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, The Parks Highway from MP 202 MP 237, Trims Camp, 
and The Richardson Highway from MP 202 to MP 224
1259 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Denali Borough, Southern Denali Borough and 
  Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

Already gusty winds on the Arctic Coast become even stronger
overnight and gust to 70 mph Thursday. Those winds combine with
light fresh snowfall and residual snow to create long-duration,
very limited visibility down to 1/2 mile Thursday into Friday
morning so Winter Storm Warnings were issued. Gusty easterly
winds along the Dalton Highway north of Fairbanks further increase
overnight and are joined tomorrow by locations across and
immediately north of the Alaska Range with wind headlines in
effect. Light widespread to locally moderate snowfall is expected
in the West and Central Interior tonight into Thursday night.
Warm temperatures are expected in the Southeast Interior Thursday,
reaching the mid-30s. A low pressure moves into the Bering Sea
still Sunday to create concerns for late weekend to early week
heavy snowfall in western Alaska and Central Interior and localized
minor coastal erosion on the West Coas. Another low may then
quickly follow that up on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper levels, analysis and model discussion...

Low pressure will further deepen over the Gulf of Alaska for the
next twelve hours. High pressure over the Arctic Coast has moved
back eastward over the last 24 hours and into the western Chukchi
Sea by this afternoon. Models have varied on the placement of the
best QPF in guidance over the last 12 hours, but the chance of it
being within the general interior West and Central parts of
Alaska remains very high for tonight into Thursday. This will help
to create moderate snowfall in parts of the West and Central
Interiors by Thursday night.

Central and Eastern Interior...

High pressure over the interior of northwest Canada and low pressure
in the Gulf of Alaska have aided the formation of a Tanana Valley
Jet with strong easterly winds ongoing this afternoon already. The
zone encompassing the greater-Delta Junction area is seeing gusts in
the low-40 mph already where a Wind Advisory continues into
tonight. Peak wind gusts are expected to decrease late tonight
before another round of gusty winds develops downslope of the
Alaska Range, with gusts immediately north of the range up to 70
mph possible. The previous Wind Advisory has been upgraded to a
High Wind Warning for these travel potential impacts along the
Richardson Highway Thursday into Thursday night. Further northward
though, easterly winds gusting to 50 mph north and west of
Fairbanks persist tonight and then slowly decrease Thursday PM. No
changes were made to those Wind Advisories covering the Dalton
Highway and Tanana River Valley west of Fairbanks. Light snowfall
remains likely along and west of the Dalton Highway Thursday night
as the low in the Gulf lifts northward into the West Interior,
but the eastward extent remains a bit uncertain yet. The current
forecast for up to 2 inches covers the ongoing uncertainty well.
Beyond the wind and light snowfall, warm downsloping temperatures
are expected Thursday daytime in the Southeast Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

Weak mid-level low pressure over the West Coast begins to draw
moisture northward tonight into the Interior of Central and West
Alaska. A low pressure centered in the Gulf of Alaska moving
northward phases with that low to further deepen over the far West
Thursday as light snowfall begins tonight. Ensemble probabilistic
guidance shows a 70% chance of 4-5 inches of snowfall between
Shungnak and Bettles tonight and ending Thursday night in the West
and Central Interior. Other locations on the Seward Peninsula may
observe up to a few inches of snowfall as the low retrogrades
westward later Thursday and the richest moisture is located
overhead. At this point no warning headlines are anticipated with
the lower-end snowfall amounts forecast. Expect snowfall to taper
by Friday morning as the deeper low drops southward into Southwest
Alaska and a mid-level ridge moves overhead Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Already strong easterly onshore winds over the Arctic Coast will
only further increase tonight with a tightening pressure gradient.
The forecast of gusts from 55 to 65 mph over many of the near-
coastline locations continues today and may bring impacts to area
communities late tonight into Friday morning. What has increased
though is the confidence in widespread blowing snow creating longer-
duration visibility around 1/2 mile in this 30 hr time period. The
previous High Wind Watches were upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings
due to the combination of both those already-expected wind impacts
and better confidence on long-duration very low visibility. The
winds begin to taper Friday morning, but low visibility may linger
into Friday midday. A warm front moves overhead Saturday night to
create a wind shift to southerly, with colder daytime temperatures
likely with the overland flow.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

A ridge of high pressure over the Bering Sea Saturday night quickly
gives way to an incoming low pressure moving through the Bering
Straight. Six to twelve hours of strong 25 to 35 mph southeasterly
winds north of the Seward Peninsula may create minor coastal erosion
near and southeast of Point Hope Sunday midday to early overnight,
but there still remains low confidence on any exact locations and
details. Model guidance has increased the pace at which this
system moves through the West Coast over the last 24 hours, which
has decreased the potential of widespread minor coastal flooding.
At this point, the best potential for heavier snowfall looks to
be Sunday evening into Monday, especially for the West and Central
Interior. Scattered snow showers linger into Tuesday as a more
southerly-located low pressure may move onshore into Southwest
Alaska Tuesday night to create another round of heavy snowfall.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ802>805.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ812-832-834-846.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847-848-850.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-810>815-856>861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-812-856-858.
     Storm Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Storm Warning for PKZ813>815-859>861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ855.
&&

NLy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
628 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2023

AKZ801-091515-
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Point Hope, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
628 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2023

...Increasing Probability Of A Series Of Impactful Storms Sunday
Through Thursday...

There is increasing probability for a series of Bering Sea storms
to impact the West Coast and Western Interior from Sunday through
Thursday.

The first system will bring a strong front to the West Coast on
Sunday with heavy snow, south, southeast, and southwest winds
gusting as high as 50 mph, and snow possibly changing to rain late
Sunday. At this time elevated water levels are possible, though
likely to be higher with the second system.

A second, stronger system looks to impact the region Tuesday
through Thursday. This system will bring the possibility of
coastal flooding with the highest water levels likely south of
the Bering Strait, as well as heavy snow potentially changing to
rain, and south and southwest winds gusting as high as 60 mph.
Water levels are still highly uncertain and will be tracked
closely going into this weekend.

There is still significant uncertainty with both storm systems,
and residents should stay alert for additional updates to the
forecast and prepare for stormy weather late this weekend into
next week.

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
628 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2023

AKZ813>830-851-852-091515-
South Slopes of the Western Brooks Range-Noatak Valley-
Kivalina and Red Dog Dock-Lower Kobuk Valley-Baldwin Peninsula-
Northern Seward Peninsula-Upper Kobuk Valleys-Shishmaref-
Bering Strait Coast-Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Interior Seward Peninsula-Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Yukon Delta Coast-Lower Yukon River-St Lawrence Island-
Lower Koyukuk Valley-Middle Yukon Valley-
Lower Yukon and Innoko Valleys-
North Slopes of the Western Alaska Range-Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including Walker Lake, Noatak, Red Dog Mine, Kivalina,
Red Dog Dock, Noorvik, Selawik, Kiana, Kotzebue, Deering,
Buckland, Candle, Ambler, Shungnak, Kobuk, Shishmaref, Diomede,
Wales, Brevig Mission, Teller, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin,
Serpentine Hot Springs, Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs,
Taylor, Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk,
Shaktoolik, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, Nunam Iqua, Chevak, Russian Mission,
St Marys, Pilot Station, Marshall, Gambell, Savoonga, Huslia,
Hughes, Galena, Nulato, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Grayling,
Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik, Farewell Lake, McGrath, Nikolai,
and Takotna
628 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2023

...Increasing Probability Of A Series Of Impactful Storms Sunday
Through Thursday...

There is increasing probability for a series of Bering Sea storms
to impact the West Coast and Western Interior from Sunday through
Thursday.

The first system will bring a strong front to the West Coast on
Sunday with heavy snow, south, southeast, and southwest winds
gusting as high as 50 mph, and snow possibly changing to rain late
Sunday. At this time elevated water levels are possible, though
likely to be higher with the second system.

A second, stronger system looks to impact the region Tuesday
through Thursday. This system will bring the possibility of
coastal flooding with the highest water levels likely south of
the Bering Strait, as well as heavy snow potentially changing to
rain, and south and southwest winds gusting as high as 60 mph.
Water levels are still highly uncertain and will be tracked
closely going into this weekend.

There is still significant uncertainty with both storm systems,
and residents should stay alert for additional updates to the
forecast and prepare for stormy weather late this weekend into
next week.

JC