Wind Advisory 30, NWS Fairbanks, AK

922 
WWAK73 PAFG 052324
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKDT Tue Sep 5 2023

AKZ225-060600-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230906T0600Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
324 PM AKDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...From Denali Park Entrance to Healy.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are blowing through Windy Pass
  between the Denali Park Entrance and Healy. Winds are expected 
  to decrease late tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-061400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230906T1400Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
324 PM AKDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range north of Black Rapids.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will decrease early Wednesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

965 
WWAK73 PAFG 060336
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
736 PM AKDT Tue Sep 5 2023

AKZ225-060445-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230906T0600Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Cantwell, 
Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
736 PM AKDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ226-061145-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230906T1400Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
736 PM AKDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range north of Black Rapids.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will decrease early Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

123 
WWAK73 PAFG 060913
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
113 AM AKDT Wed Sep 6 2023

AKZ226-061015-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230906T1400Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
113 AM AKDT Wed Sep 6 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
432 PM AKDT Mon Sep 4 2023

SYNOPSIS...
A wet westerly flow pattern will bring a series of storms across
Northern Alaska spaced about 1 day apart through mid-week, then
one of the storms will linger over the Interior on Thu and Fri.
This will bring periods of rain and winds to most areas through
mid-week. Temperatures generally close to seasonal normals
through Tue, then falling below normal on Wed. Thu and Fri will
see wet and colder than normal conditions from the Brooks Range
south.

A cold front over the Eastern Interior will move east of the ALCAN
Border tonight. This is causing rain and cool conditions over the
Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope today. There could be
another inch of snow above 3000 ft in the Eastern Brooks Range
with this tonight.

High pressure building over the Western Interior will move over
Eastern Interior tonight. This will cause clearing from the west
this evening over the Eastern Interior and bring a risk of
freezing temperatures by Tue morning to much of the area from
Fairbanks east.

A strong storm west of the Bering Strait will move east over the
West Coast of Alaska tonight into the Western Interior and Western
North Slope on Tue, into the Central Interior Tue evening.
This will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the West Coast
tonight and Tue that will spread into the Western Interior and
Western North Slope on Tue. The Eastern North Slope and Eastern
Interior will see downslope winds Tue and just have a chance of
rain. Rain will spread east across the Eastern Interior Tue night
and Wed. Most areas will have rain Wed into Thu.

Up to 2 inches of rain is possible along south facing slopes of
Seward Pen, Western Brooks Range. Up to 1 inch of rain in the
Alaska Range Tue into Wed with 2 inches south side of Denali.

A strong Arctic Cold front over Russia will move east over the
West Coast on Tue into the Western Interior on Tue night and
across the Central Interior on Wed. This will bring much colder
temps and drop the snow levels down to 2000-3000 ft by Wed.

Aloft...
A westerly flow pattern will persist into Tue, with a series of
strong short wave troughs and associated surface systems moving
east across the Bering and Northern Alaska through Tue. By Wed a
these short waves pull the long wave trough over Mainland AK and
it remains there into the weekend. This will cause conditions to
be very wet with seasonal temperatures into Tue. Temps will cool
below normal Wed into next weekend.

Surface...
A 996 mb low 300 NM north of Wainright will move to 300 NM north
of Utqiagvik as a 1004 mb low by 4pm Tue then weaken. A cold front
from this low to Inuvik to Denali will move to Inuvik to Beaver
Creek by 4am Tue. Rain, with snow above 4000 feet is occuring
along and east of this front. Rain will diminish west of the
front.

High pressure building over the Western Interior will move over
Eastern Interior tonight. This will cause clearing from the west
this evening over the Eastern Interior and bring a risk of
freezing temperatures by Tue morning to much of the area from
Fairbanks east. Will also see patchy fog in valleys of the Eastern
Interior with dense fog possible.

A 986 mb low near Anadyr will move to near Kotzbue as a 988 mb
low by 4pm Tue and to 100 NM southeast of Kotzebue as a 996 mb low
by 4pm Wed, then move east over the Central and Eastern Interior
on Thu. A weather front extending south form this low will move
along the West Coast of Alaska tonight, to Cape Lisburne to
McGrath by 4pm Tue, to Kotzebue to Deadhorse to Denali by 4am
Wed, and to Selawik to Deadhorse to Inuvik to Northway by 4pm
Wed. Heavy rain will spread east with the front but decrease east
of Denali. Strong south winds along the front will turn SW and
decrease some west of the front.

A second and much colder Arctic front will move east across the
Northern Bering Sea on Tue and into the West Coast of Alaska Tue
night and across the Interior on Wed. This will bring Strong NW
winds to the West Coast Tue night and Wed, and into the Interior
on Wed. This will bring much colder air with snow levels dropping
to 1000 ft along the West Coast Tue night and to 2000 ft over the
Interior Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 4pm Tue, after that time the NAM becomes
an outlier on short wave features compared to the good agreement
between the GFS/ Canadian and ECMWF. Those three keep good
agreement aloft through 4am Thu. Models maintain agreement on the
long wave into the weekend, but have increasing differences on
short wave details from Thu PM into the weekend. Will use a blend
of models for features aloft through 4pm Tue, then a blend of the
GFS/Canadian and ECMWF for features aloft Tue nigh through Thu.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through Tue,
then moderate agreement into Thu. Will use a blend of models for
precip through Tue, then exclude the NAM from the blend for Tue
night into Thu since it is the outlier aloft. Will be sure to
show these highlights:
Rain across most of Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope
diminishing from west this evening with just light rain along the
ALCAN Border after midnight. Heavy rain spreading into West Coast
this evening and tonight, into the Western Interior on Tue, into
the Central Interior Tue evening, and across the Eastern Interior
Tue night and Wed. North Slope just a chance of rain and snow.
Rain continuing most areas into Thu. Expect 0.50-1.00 inches
across most of the West Coast and Western Interior Tue into Wed,
with up to 2 inches along south facing slopes of Seward Pen,
Western Brooks Range. The Eastern Interior can expect 0.25-0.50
Tue PM into Wed with up to an inch in the Alaska Range with 2
inches south side of Denali. Amounts generally less than 0.50 inch
for Wed night and Thu.

At the surface at 18Z, all models verify 5 mb too weak on the low
near Anadyr. Since this feature is still tapping into Arctic air
to its wet, expect it to deepen further and that it will remain at
least 5 mb deeper than models indicate through Tue and possibly
into Wed. Models show similar solutions through 4pm Tue, then the
NAM becomes more of an outlier on location of features. Will
handle this by using a blend of the GFS/ECMWF and Canadian surface
fields for surface field location and winds, but will bump up
winds along the West Coast 3-5 kts above models through Tue to
account for the deeper than forecast surface low, and bump up
winds 3kt along West Coast and Western Interior Tue night and Wed
for same reason. Winds of highlight are:
South winds 20-30 kt along the West Coast tonight into Tue AM,
then W-NW winds 25 to 35 kt along the West Coast Tue PM into Wed
night. South winds 25 gusting to 40 mph across Brooks Range Tue.
South winds 15 gust 25 mph in the Western Interior late tonight
into Tue. South winds 25 gusting to 40 mph through AK Range Passes
Tue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
South winds 20-30 kt along the West Coast tonight into Tue AM
will cause elevated surf Norton Sound Coast Golovin to the Bering
Strait tonight and Tue.
W-NW winds 25 to 35 kt along the West Coast Tue night into Wed
night will cause High surf Tue night into Thu NW Facing coastlines
such as Shishmaref, Bering Strait, St Lawrence Is, and Yukon
Delta Tue into to Shishmaref Tue night, and possibly at Deering
Wed into Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water on the Tanana River and tributaries draining the
Alaska Range will continue this week. This includes the Chisana
River, Nabesna River, Gerstle River, Delta River, and the Nenana
River. The Tanana River is running at bankfull with minor flooding
possible in low lying areas from Fairbanks downstream through
mid-week. These rivers are falling slowly, but additional
rainfall this week will cause slight fluctuations that could keep
flooding going from Fairbanks downstream to Manley.

Expect 0.50-1.00 inch of across most of the West Coast and
Western Interior Tue into Wed, with up to 2 inches along south
facing slopes of Seward Pen, Western Brooks Range. This will cause
rivers to remain high this week across Western Alaska,
particularly the Kobuk and Noatak Rivers and their tributaries.

The Eastern Interior can expect 0.25-0.50 Tue PM into Wed with up
to an inch in the Alaska Range with 2 inches south side of
Denali. Amounts generally less than 0.50 inch for Wed night and
Thu. This will keep all rivers in the southeast Interior high this
week, especially ones draining the AK Range.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-213.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ214.
     Flood Watch for AKZ221.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ209-210.
     Flood Adivsory for AKZ221-222-223.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-805-816-817-850>854-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

JB