Wind Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

047 
WWAK73 PAFG 060017
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
317 PM AKST Sun Feb 5 2023

AKZ223-062030-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230207T0900Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
317 PM AKST Sun Feb 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKST Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing and drifting snow may impact 
  travel in the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-062030-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.230206T0300Z-230207T1500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
317 PM AKST Sun Feb 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing and drifting snow may impact 
  travel in the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

838 
WWAK73 PAFG 061157
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
257 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

AKZ223-070100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230207T0900Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
257 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing and drifting snow may impact 
  travel in the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-070100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230207T1500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
257 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing and drifting snow may impact 
  travel in the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

407 
WWAK73 PAFG 070005
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

AKZ223-070115-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230207T0900Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
305 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Strong winds have now ended. Gusts to 35 mph will occur tonight.


$$

AKZ226-071500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230207T1500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
305 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing and drifting snow may impact 
  travel in the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

775 
WWAK73 PAFG 070940
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1240 AM AKST Tue Feb 7 2023

AKZ226-071045-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230207T1500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1240 AM AKST Tue Feb 7 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have dropped below advisory criteria and are expected to
continue to diminish.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
411 PM AKST Sat Feb 4 2023

Synopsis...
Strong winds, blizzard conditions, and wind chills to 65 below
are occuring near Point Lay and will continue into Sunday.
Visibility in blowing snow at Point Lay will improve slightly on
Sunday, but very cold wind chills will continue into Mon morning.

Strong winds and blizzard conditions in the Bering Strait will
spread to St Lawrence Island tonight and continue into Sunday
morning. Conditions will improve slightly Sunday afternoon as
falling snow ends, but string winds and reduced visibility in
blowing snow will continue into Mon.

East winds will gust to 35 mph over the Interior Summits along the
Elliott and Dalton Highway north and west of Livengood starting
Sunday morning. The winds will continue through Monday afternoon
and then decrease Monday night. The Steese Highway is not expected
to get these strong winds. There will be blowing snow causing
reduced visibility and heavy drifting snow over these summits,
making travel difficult Sunday through Monday.East

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Eastern
Russia, the Bering Sea and the NW Pacific and a strong ridge over
the Eastern Pacific and Western North America. This pattern is
progressive through the middle of next week. A series of short
wave troughs rotate out of the Bering and NW Pacific and move NE
across Alaska gradually digging into the ridge and pulling the
long wave east over Alaska by Mon, with the long wave trough
remaining over the Bering Sea and Alaska through the middle of
next week. By the second half of next week, a strong storm moving
into the Bering Sea will cause the long wave ridge to build back
over Alaska. This cause temperatures to cool below normal over the
area south of the Brooks Range early next week, then warm back
above normal in the second half of next week, while the North
Slope remains colder than normal through much of next week.

Each of these short wave troughs will bring a period of light
snow with it over Northern Alaska.

Surface...
A 1002 mb low near Point Hope will strengthen in place to 998 mb
by 3pm Sun, and to 992 by 3pm Mon. Strong high pressure north of
the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist. This is producing strong
northeast winds near Point Lay producing very low wind chills and
near blizzard conditions. The remainder of the Arctic Coast is
very cold but with little wind.

A weather front stretching from the Central Bering Sea to Norton
Sound to Eagle will move to St Lawrence Island to Point Hope to
east by 3am Sun and then weaken in place. This is causing snow
over the West Coast and Western Interior northwest of the front,
with flurries over the Central and Eastern Interior north of the
front. Snow will taper off southeast of the front. Expect 1 inch
of snow with this northwest of Nome and Kotzebue, and less than an
inch to the east. As this spreads snow over the already windy
areas of the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Is blizzard conditions
will develop. As the snow taper off Sun PM, the blizzard should
end, but winds and blowing snow will continue and a winter weather
advisory will likely be needed from Sun PM into Mon.

A surface trough over Bristol Bay and the AKPEN will move to the
YK Delta to Eagle by 3pm Sun, then to Bethel to Old Crow by 3am
Mon. then weaken during the day Mon. This will cause south winds
gusting 40 mph to develop through AK Range Passes Sun and
continue into Mon. This will cause east winds gusting 30 mph along
the Tanana River from Delta west. This will also cause northeast
winds gusting to 35 mph over Dalton and Elliott Highway Summits
on Sun along with blowing and drifting snow. The winds and
blowing snow over Summits will continue into Mon.

A low well south of Cold Bay will move to near Kodiak as a 961 mb
low by 3pm Sun, and to near Skwentna as a 981 mb low by 3pm Mon,
and to near Eagle as a 1002 mb low by 3om Tue. An occluded front
stretching northeast of this low will move to Skwentna to
Fairbanks to Chicken by 3am Mon. to McGrath to Fairbanks to Eagle
by 3pm Mon, to McGrath to Old Crow by 3am Tue and then persist
into Tue night. Expect this to bring a chance of snow to the
Southeast Interior late Sun night and Mon, with light snow likely
from Mcgrath to Old Crow on Mon and persist into Tue. Expect
several inches of snow between Mcgrath and Old Crow. Any amounts
that fall in the southeast Interior will be very light. Chinook
conditions will occur over the SE Interior following the front Mon
PM into Tue with winds through AK Range passes and warmer
temperatures in the SE Interior Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through the middle of next week. Models agree on
the long wave pattern in the second half of next week, but differ
on short wave details starting on Wed. Will use a blend of models
for features aloft through Tue.

With precipitation, models in good agreement with slight
differences in details. Will use a blend of models for precip
location, pops and amounts with the following adjustments:
Will adjust pops for this afternoon/evening to reflect areas snow
now or which will soon be getting snow. Will have snow likely over
the West Coast and Western Interior this afternoon/evening, with
likely snow remaining west of Kotzebue and Nome after midnight,
while ares from Nome and Kotzebue east will have just a chance of
snow after midnight. The West Coast will have a chance of snow
west of Nome and Kivalina on Sun, while the remainder of the area
south of the Brooks Range will have flurries diminishing on Sun.

At the surface, models verify well at 15Z. Models show similar
solutions at the surface through 3pm Sun, then the NAM and ECMWF
bring a much deeper surface triple point low north into the Tanana
Valley for Mon. Given this, will use the NAM for the wind
details.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-225-230.
&&