Wind Advisory 29, NWS Fairbanks, AK

510 
WWAK73 PAFG 032313
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2023

AKZ226-041400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-230904T1400Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
313 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range north of Black Rapids. 

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will decrease after midnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

370 
WWAK73 PAFG 041024
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 AM AKDT Mon Sep 4 2023

AKZ226-041130-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-230904T1400Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
224 AM AKDT Mon Sep 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet westerly flow pattern will bring a series of storms across
Northern Alaska through the middle of next week, with storms
spaced about 1 day apart. This will bring periods of rain and
winds to most areas for the next week. Temperatures today and
tonight will be below normal, with below freezing possible
tonight east of Delta Junction and Circle. From Sun into Tue
temperatures will be generally close to seasonal normals, then
trend below normal from Wed through next weekend.

Aloft...
A westerly flow pattern will persist into Tue, with a series of
strong short wave troughs and associated surface systems moving
east across the Bering and Northern Alaska through Tue. By Wed a
long wave trough forms over Mainland AK and then persists into
next weekend. This will cause conditions to be very wet with
seasonal temperatures into Tue. Temps will cool below normal Wed
into next weekend.

A strong 5400 meter 500 mb low over Eagle with a short wave trough
stretching south to Delta Junction will move east of the ALCAN
Border about 10pm tonight. Widespread to scattered showers
associate with this are occuring east of Delta Junction to Ft
Yukon that will diminish from the west this evening. Sharp ridging
will develop over the Eastern Interior west of this short wave
tonight causing clearing skies, and bringing the chance of below
freezing temperatures be early Sun east of Delta and Ft Yukon.

A second strong short wave over the Eastern Bering will move over
the West Coast tonight, into the Western Interior and Western
North Slope on Sun, to the Central Interior/Central North Slope
on Sun night, and then east across the Eastern Interior and
Eastern North Slope on Mon.

A third strong short wave will move to the Central Bering on Mon,
along the West Coast on Mon night, and into the Western North
Slope and Western Interior on Tue.

Surface...
A 992 mb low near Wrangel Island will remain stationary tonight,
then move to 400 NM northwest of Utqiagvik as a 997 mb low by 4pm
Sun, to 300 NM northwest of Utqiagvik as a 995 mb low by 4pm Mon.
An Arctic front stretching from that low to the low to Point Lay
to Arctic Village will move to Northway to Ft Yukon to Wainwright
to the low by 4am Sun, then from the low to Wainwright to Old
Crow by 4pm Sun, from the low to Deadhorse to Inuvik by 4am Mon,
and from the low 100 NM north of Barter Island to Inuvik by 4pm
Mon. Another portion of the Arctic front will move stretching
south from the low will move to Point Lay then southeast along the
Dateline by 4am Sun, to Point Lay to The YK Delta by 4pm Sun, to
Deadhorse to Bristol Bay by 4am Mon, and to Barter Island to
Denali by 4pm Mon. Below freezing temps possible tonight east of
Delta Junction and Circle where skies clear. Temps will fall into
the 30s and lower 40s much of the remainder of the Eastern
Interior including Fairbanks, but freezing not expected as clouds
will spread in from the west after midnight.

High pressure over the Beaufort Sea will persist into Sun night
then move east. This will cause east winds along with stratus and
fog along the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik east was that will
persist through Sun night. Fog will thin on Mon as winds turn more
southwest. East winds 20-25 kt from Utqiagvik east Sun, turn SE
and moving offshore Sun night.

High pressure over the Western Interior will move east of the
Eastern Interior and Copper River Basin by 4am Sun, then over the
Copper River Basin Sun and Sun night before weakening on Mon.
This will cause southerly gap winds gusting to 40 mph to develop
through AK Range Passes Sun and continue through Sun night then
decrease on Mon.

A 986 mb low 100 NM southwest of Gambell will move to 60 NM
southwest of Nome as a 987 mb low by 4am Sun, to near Koyuk as a
994 mb low buy pm4 Sun, to Shungnak as a 1001 mb low by 4am Mon,
and to Arctic Village as a 1010 mb low by 4pm Mon then weaken in
place. An occluded front stretching NE from this low over St
Lawrence Is and the YK Delta will move to the Bering Strait to
Kotzebue by 4am Sun, with a warm front from Kotzebue to McGrath
and a cold front from Kotzebue to Bethel. By 4pm Sun the occluded
front will lie from Kotzbue to Illiamna, by 4am Mon it will lies
from Shungnak to Anaktuvuk Pass to Minchumina, and by 3pm Mon it
will lie from Arctic Village to Delta Junction, and then weaken
in place Mon night. This has spread rain to all areas SW of
McGrath to the Bering Strait, and will spread rain NE over all of
West Coast and the Western and Central Interior tonight, into the
Western North Slope on Sun, remaining west of Fairbanks and
Deadhorse on Sun night, then spreading east across the Eastern
Interior and Eastern North Slope on Mon and Mon night. Expect
between 0.50 and 1.00 inch of rain over most of the West Coast,
Western and Central Interior through Mon night, while the Eastern
Interior gets about 0.10-0.25 Mon and Mon night. This front and
low will bring SE winds 20-30kt along the West Coast tonight
turning NW 20-30kt on Mon.

Another strong low will move to Anadyr as a 991 mb low by 4pm Mon,
and to the Bering Strait a a 994 mb low by 4pm Tue. This will
bring rain along the West Coast Mon night and Tue, and into the
Western Interior and Western North Slope Tue. This will bring
another 0.50-1.00 inch of rain to the West Coast and Western
Interior on Mon night and Tue. This will bring south winds
20-25kt along the West Coast Mon and Mon night, turning SW 15-25
kt Tue, then NW 20-30kt Tue night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models all initialize 20-30 meters too weak on the 500 mb low
just north of Fairbanks at 12Z, but initialize week on other
features and show similar solutions aloft through Tue. The deeper
low aloft will cause more showers over the Eastern Interior today
than models indicate, and may also move east a few hours more
slowly than models indicate, but since the low is moving east of
the ALCAN Border this evening will have little impact after this
evening. So will use a blend of models for features aloft but will
linger showers over the Eastern Interior several hours later than
models indicate this evening.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through Tue.
Will use a blend of models for precipitation location and
amounts. Will make sure to show:
Scattered showers over the Interior east of Fairbanks this
evening. Widespread rain SW of McGrath to the Bering Strait
spreading NE over all of West Coast and the Western and Central
Interior tonight, into the Western North Slope on Sun, remaining
west of Fairbanks and Deadhorse on Sun night, then spreading east
across the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope on Mon and Mon
night. Expect between 0.50 and 1.00 inch of rain over most of the
West Coast, Western and Central Interior through Mon night, while
the Eastern Interior gets about 0.10-0.25 Mon and Mon night.
Another front moving into the West Coast will bring rain likely
along the West Coast Mon night and Tue, and into the Western
Interior and Western North Slope Tue. This will bring another
0.50-1.00 inch of rain to the West Coast and Western Interior on
Mon night and Tue.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well on most features. Models
show similar solutions with the general surface in general
surface pattern through Tue. The NAM and Canadian models keep the
surface low deeper than the ECMWF and GFS as the low moves into
the West Coast on Sun. Given the strong dynamics involved favor
the deeper NAM and Canadian at the surface. Highlight will be:
SE winds 20-30kt along the West Coast tonight turning NW 20-30kt
on Mon. East winds 20-25 kt from Utqiagvik east Sun, turn SE and
moving offshore Sun night. South gap winds gusting 40 mph through
AK Range Passes Sun and Sun night. South winds 20-25kt along the
West Coast Mon and Mon night, turning SW 15-25 kt Tue, then NW
20-30kt Tue night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Elevated surf tonight Norton Sound Coast Golovin to Nome.
High surf near Shishmaref and the Yukon Delta Sun and Sun
evening.
High surf possible south facing shores West Coast of Alaska Mon
into Tue.
High surf possible North facing shores of West Coast on Wed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water on the Tanana River and tributaries draining the
Alaska Range will continue into next week. This includes the
Chisana River, Nabesna River, Gerstle River, Delta River, and the
Nenana River. The Tanana River is running at bankfull with minor
flooding possible in low lying area over the several days.

Between 0.50 and 1.00 inch of rain fell over much of the Alaska
Range Friday into Saturday morning. This water is now draining
into these already high rivers, and could cause minor flooding
over the next several days.

Rivers over most of the remainder of Northern Alaska will remain
high through next week. Expect between 0.50 and 1.00 inch of rain
over most of the West Coast, Western and Central Interior through
Mon night. Another 0.50-1.00 inch of rain to the West Coast and
Western Interior is expected Mon night and Tue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-214.
     Flood Watch for AKZ221.
     Flood Avisory for AKZ222-223.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-810-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-815-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&