Wind Advisory 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1203 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool front is moving northeast across the Interior bringing rain
and clouds and cooler temps. Rain continues over the Brooks Range
with swollen rivers discharging the W Brooks Range running high.
The Tanana is also running high from heavy rains over the Alaska
Range. More rain is coming as former Typhoon Damrey moves into
Bristol Bay then the Interior, which will bring high winds to the
AK Range, as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A broad upper trough is moving northeast across the Interior with
the low center over the YK Delta, analyzed around 542 dam. A
rapidly deepening low is forming from the tropical remnants of
Typhoon Damrey with that low currently just south of Atka. The low
is analyzed around 965 mb. A remnant thermal trough persists over
the Fortymile Uplands near the ALCAN border.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are pretty locked in with the remnants of
Damrey as it moves inland through Friday. They are also in much
better agreement with a shortwave trough digging across the
Mainland late Friday and Saturday. The NAM and ECMWF were favored
models.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Showers over most of the Interior as the cold front shifts
through. Isolated thunderstorms and heavier rains will be
possible over the Fortymile today and this evening, then it will
be stable thereafter.

Attention quickly turns to former Typhoon Damrey as it moves from
Bristol Bay to the Kuskokwim Valley. This will induce a strong
gradient across the AK Range with gusts to 70 mph possible over
the Isabel Pass and 60+ in Windy Pass near Denali and into Delta
Junction. These will be strongest from Thursday midday through
Friday morning. As the low lifts north, southwest winds will then
develop across the whole Interior, and they will be rather gusty
with widespread 30 mph gusts, some higher over Interior highlands
on Friday. Friday is honestly going to be a "raw" day with strong
winds and showers along with cool temps.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Remnants of Typhoon Damrey will move into the Kuskokwim Valley
then track north along the Nulato Hills then across the northwest
Arctic, tonight through Friday. This storm will bring initially
strong east to northeast offshore winds then westerly onshore
winds behind it, which will be rather strong, possibly near gale
force along the immediate coast. Onshore flow diminishes Friday
night. Widespread rain will also accompany this storm with with
widespread 0.5 to 1 inch amounts, locally higher values in the W
Brooks Range, through Friday. Yet another front with southeast
winds and more rain moves in Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fog and stratus with onshore flow will persist as a high remains
anchored offshore through tonight. A trough will move offshore
early tomorrow and may bring a brief reprieve from stratus and
fog. It will also bring showers to the eastern half of the Arctic
tonight. More onshore northeast winds develop late afternoon
Thursday. Rain mixed with snow move into the Brooks Range late
Friday into Saturday as an arctic trough digs in, bringing snow
levels down as low as 3000 feet over the western parts of the
range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Another front is moving inland from the west Saturday night and
Sunday and will bring rain chances to the rest of the Mainland
Sunday and Monday. The upper flow remains progressive into the
middle of next week with likely cooler temps and chances for rain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...See SPS for West Coast
regarding elevated surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated wet thunderstorm chances today for the Fortymile Uplands,
then a cool front will stabilize the whole Interior and also bring
cooler temps again. A strong chinook develops tomorrow near the AK
Range with gusts to 40-70 mph, strongest near Isabel Pass. More
rain and cool weather with gusty southwest winds pushes across
the Interior Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding along the Tanana River is expected through Friday,
and may last into the weekend. More rain is expected over the south
slopes of the Alaska Range through the end of the week. This will
cause water levels to remain high on many rivers into the weekend. This
will also keep chances of flooding along with mud and rock slides
in the South Slopes of the Alaska Range between Denali Park and
Isabell Pass. Small rivers and creeks in the the Alaska Range,
including Denali Park will see bankfull water levels.

The 2 to 4 inches of rain that fell the past week over the Koyukuk
Basin from the Dalton Highway West, and over the Kobuk and Upper
Noatak Basins has now worked its way downstream through tributaries
and is working its way into the mainstem of these rivers. Another
one to 1.5 inches of rain is expected over this area through
Saturday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ208-217>219.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ223.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ225.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ226.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

Ahsenmacher