Wind Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

763 
WWAK73 PAFG 031409
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
509 AM AKST Tue Jan 3 2023

AKZ223-226-031515-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230103T2100Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, Healy Lake, 
Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, 
and Mineral Lake
509 AM AKST Tue Jan 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have dropped below 50 mph, but will remain gusty through
today.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1249 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Pretty quiet weather pattern across the forecast area
this week. Some locally windy conditions along the coast through
Wednesday, but winds will be slowly diminishing with improving
conditions in those areas. Breezy around Delta Junction, and near
the Alaska Range passes as well. A mix of clouds for inland
locations with some flurries along the south slopes of the Brooks
Range, and along the AlCan Border this evening. A low will spread
some snow showers up the West Coast Wednesday as it moves to the
Chukchi Sea. Temperatures will remain near or above climatological
normals as they cool slowly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...02/12Z solutions in good agreement with building ridging
over the Eastern and Central Interior. They are still struggling a
bit with shortwaves moving northwest in the broad troughing to the
southwest of the state. Solutions handling the stronger winds
well, so will again lean toward the stronger solutions, NAM and
Canadian, for the near term. Not a lot of precipitation expected
in the short term and solutions differ on where and how much, so
will lean on a blend of the HiRes solutions to try and hone in on
the more likely areas. Temperatures will be trending cooler.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the Arctic with a 527 dam high
600 nm north of Demarcation Point, and ridging extending southwest
to a 518 dam high 100 nm north of Wrangel Island. Broad troughing
remains to the southwest with a 503 dam low just south of Sand
Point, a 505 dam low just east of the Pribilofs, a 509 dam low
over Savoonga, a 511 dam low over the Gulf of Anadyr, and a 518
dam low persists over Kaktovik. Little change through Tuesday
morning, and by Tuesday afternoon the highs in the Arctic will
merge as a 528 dam high 600 nm north of Nuiqsut, while the low
over Kaktovik will move 200 nm offshore of Kaktovik. Troughing
will remain to the southwest with a 510 dam low 150 nm south of
Kodiak Island, a 509 dam low over the Pribilofs, and a 508 dam low
over the Gulf of Anadyr. Ridging will be pushing over the Eastern
and Central Interior and the Eastern Brooks Range. At 850
hpa...-10C isotherm will remain over the Arctic Coast and just off
the West Coast with a few pockets of temperatures above 0C
pushing into the Southern Interior and southwest mainland.
Temperatures will start cooling in the Southeast Interior
Wednesday.

Surface...Low pressure extends from the North Pacific into the
Arctic with a 968 mb low on the southern tip of Kodiak Island,
and a 977 mb low has moved into the Tanana Flats as leeside
troughing develops north of the Alaska Range. A 991 mb low remains
near Kaktovik but continues to weaken. Weak high pressure is
pushing southeast across the Chukotsk Peninsula to the Bering
Strait tightening the pressure gradient in the Chukchi Sea and
Bering Strait. The pressure gradient will continue to weaken
in the coastal areas as the high in the Arctic moves near the
North Pole, and low pressure to the southwest continues to weaken.
High pressure will push into the Copper River Basin, and the Upper
Yukon Flats tonight. The pressure gradient across the Alaska Range
will tighten with gusty winds developing near the passes. A
rapidly moving low in the Northeast Pacific will move northwest to
Kodiak Island by Tuesday night at 979 mb, and into the southwest
mainland Wednesday morning at 987 mb. The leeside troughing will
strengthen Wednesday as a 995 mb low develops near Nenana and the
high pressure in the Copper River Basin strengthens tightening the
gradient across the range even more.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Strongest winds are moving
offshore and conditions will be improving through the night, but
it will remain cloudy for most areas tonight with some breaks in
the clouds Tuesday. Winds along the coast east of Deadhorse
20 to 30 mph gusting around 40 mph this evening will diminish to
15 to 25 mph overnight, winds east of Utqiagvik to Deadhorse east
at 15 to 25 mph, and winds from Utqiagvik west northeast 10 to 25
mph. Inland winds variable to 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight
in the single digits above to the teens below, and Tuesday night
in the single digits below to the lower teens above. High
temperatures Tuesday will range from the single digits above to
around 20 above.

West Coast and Western Interior...A mix of clouds with some
localized flurries. Winds inland north to northeast to 10 mph,
with mainly northwest to north winds 25 to 45 mph gusting near 60
mph on the outer coast, capes, and St Lawrence Island. Winds in
the coastal areas will be diminishing through the night with
strong winds persisting in the Bering Strait as winds will
continue to gust near 50 mph most of Tuesday. Low temperatures
tonight and Tuesday night will range from around 10 below to
teens above. High temperatures Tuesday will range from the single
digits above to the lower 20s above.

Central and Eastern Interior...A mix of clouds with a flurries
possible north of the Alaska Range, and up to one inch of snow
possible in the Alaska Range. Winds northeast to 10 mph in most
valley locations, while winds and around Delta Junction will be
east at 15 to 25 mph, and winds near the Alaska Range passes will
be south gusting to 45 mph. Low temperatures tonight and Tuesday
night will range from single digits below to around 20 above.
Fairbanks and vicinity lows will be in the 5 below to 5 above
range. High temperatures Tuesday will range from the single
digits below to 20s above above in the Alaska Range with
temperatures around Fairbanks 10 to 15 above.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Weak high pressure across the
northeast half of mainland Alaska with broad low pressure to the
southwest. Some snow along the West Coast but nothing significant.
A low develops off the Arctic Coast spreading snow across the area
through the weekend. Tanana Valley Jet winds will continue on and
off gusting near 50 mph at times around Delta Junction.
Temperatures above climatological normals will be cooling near
normals for the weekend, and below normals early next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ207.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201-225.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-235-240.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.
     Gale Warning for PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 23