Wind Advisory 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1005 AM AKDT Mon May 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Spring is in the air as the solstice sun is really beginning to
take effect. Temps are moderating to seasonal norms and river ice
is beginning to break-up. Typical late spring conditions are
underway with fog over the N Slope and south winds in the Alaska
Range, with Interior showers and maybe an isolated strike, today,
N of the AK Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 524 dam arctic trough just offshore of the NW Arctic
coast. There is a deamplifying shortwave trough ejecting NE across
the Eastern Alaska Range into the Yukon. There is a very large low
with a relatively moist warm front moving across the Aleutians
with the front moving into the Gulf of AK. Increasing northeast
winds have commenced over the N Bering Sea which is clearing fog
and clouds out of that area. A band of showers is forming along
the trough axis over the Interior mainly over the White Mtns and
Fortymile. There is weak high pressure over the Arctic coast with
the main surface feature being the ~987 mb low over the Aleutians.

Model Discussion...
Models are in excellent agreement with no issues to note through
the week. Forecast confidence is high. Expect warming temps to
around seasonal norms for most of the Mainland.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Showers are occurring over the Yukon Flats and White
Mtns/Fortymile Uplands and will continue through this evening
before exiting over the E Brooks Range, where some light snowfall
will occur. South gap winds through the AK Range will continue
into the 40 mph range, gusting to near 50 mph, through Tuesday
with a gradual diminishing thereafter, although they will remain
gusty through the week. Temps gradually warm each day with
Interior 60s for Wed-Fri. Expect periods of dense high cloud
cover Tue-Thu as a low in the Gulf streams cloud cover overhead.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Breezy northeast winds have moved clouds out of most of the West
Coast south of the Seward Peninsula. These northeast winds will
peak in the daytime hours with gusts into the 25-40 mph range
through Wed. Temps will remain sightly below seasonal norms over
the W Coast with the blustery northerly winds, but will gradually
warm over the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Low stratus and periods of dense fog will plague the Arctic coast
through the week. Weak disturbances aloft will support
isolated/scattered rain and snow showers over the Brooks Range
through Wed.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
More warming temps expected for most of the Mainland Friday
through the weekend, with weak ridging aloft the most likely
scenario. There is a low chance for strong ridging aloft by the
end of the weekend with more significant warming into next week,
but for now, this forecast is taking a more conservative approach
until those details can be ironed out. It looks pretty dry through
most of this period with minimal precipitation chances.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Snowpack starting to clear low elevations of Tanana Valley, but
heavy snowpack remains in most other areas.

South winds will continue to gust to 35 to 45 mph before
decreasing slowly Tue night and Wed although they will remain
breezy through Thu. Expect dry and windy conditions down by the
AK Range today and tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Most rivers and lakes remain ice covered, with areas of overflow
and open leads. The Tanana River has broken up in many areas
upstream of Salcha, and the lower portion of the Nenana River is
open.

With a much above normal snowpack over most of the Interior, and
a warming trend to near or just above normal temperatures in the
second half of this week, there will be a big increase of snowmelt
and the push of water into rivers south of the Brooks Range in
the second half of this week. People who live near areas prone to
snowmelt flooding should prepare for the possibility of snowmelt
flooding later this week. The chance of breakup and/or snow melt
flooding are above normal this spring over Eastern Alaska and are
about a week later than normal. The latest breakup information is
available at www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

Ahsenmacher