Small Craft Advisory 310, NWS Fairbanks, AK

864 
FZAK51 PAFG 170001
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-171545-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 985 mb low north of Utqiagvik in the High Arctic will move 
north and weaken through Friday morning as a low north of Siberia 
moves east bringing a front through the NW Arctic Coast by 
Saturday morning. 

$$

PKZ811-171545-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ812-171545-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ813-171545-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ814-171545-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ815-171545-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ857-171545-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft. Freezing
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ858-171545-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Freezing
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Snow
showers. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...S winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ859-171545-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ860-171545-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ861-171545-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 NM-
301 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

Nov 23

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
406 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm is ongoing for portions of the Western and Central
Interior with moderate to heavy snow expected through the day.
Across Galena to the Kuskokwim Valley, there has been some rain
mixing in with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s but
will changeover to snow during this morning. Along the West
Coast, the steadiest precipitation has ended with lingering snow
showers expected. Strong northerly winds are resulting in areas of
blowing snow but these will be diminishing through the afternoon
and evening. Otherwise, snow is ongoing in the Brooks Range and
North Slope as well and will continue through the day. From
Fairbanks north and east, there have been some flurries until you
get to Tok and Northway where light to moderate snow is falling
and will continue for the next few hours before ending.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...Aloft at 500 mb (~16000 feet)
A negatively tilted trough extends from southwest to northeast
over the Bering Sea through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi
Sea. The former Bering Sea low's remnant upper level energy is
nearly over the Western Interior and will move parallel to the
Western AK Range this afternoon, then over the Brooks Range this
evening as the trough becomes neutrally tilted over Western
Alaska. This will allow for weaker southerly flow aloft and upper
level divergence over the Central and Eastern Interior leading to
some light snow.

Surface Analysis...
The Bering Sea low moved ashore yesterday and is currently around
973 mb over Kaltag. A 985 mb low is over the AlCan Border about 60
miles south of Northway with a 1004 over the Yukon extending west
to Eagle. Farther north, a 979 mb low developed just to the
northeast of Barter Island. In the Arctic, a 984 mb low sits about
450 nautical miles northwest of Utqiagvik and is extending a
front that is slowly moving east across the Eastern Arctic Coast
and will push the low near Barter Island north northeast as it
passes through.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Heavy snow is expected from Tanana north and northeast to the
Dalton Highway today. Snow around Tok and Northway will be ending
early this morning and it will move northeast into the Fortymile
country where minor accumulations of around 1-2 inches is
possible. For the rest of the Central and Eastern Interior, it
will be dry until the evening and overnight as snow moves in from
the west and continues at times overnight into Friday from Nenana
to Delta Junction northward. Snow accumulations will be light with
about 1-3 inches expected. Otherwise, we'll be watching a low
moving up from the Gulf of Alaska Saturday morning which can
bring another round of light snow from Dot Lake north and east to
the AlCan Border. Accumulations with this look to be around 1-3
inches.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for much of the area. The
rain occurring from Galena south through the Kuskokwim Valley
will be changing to snow during the late morning hours as a cold
front moves through. Coastal areas can expect another inch or less
or snow while the Interior 4 to 7 inches of snow with the highest
amounts near the the southern Brooks Range. Strong northerly
winds allowing for blowing snow along the West Coast and Bering
Strait will be weakening gradually through the day. The high surf
will also drop as winds weaken. Otherwise, isolated to scattered
snow showers can be expected through Saturday with temperatures
cooling to near climatological norms this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow showers across the NW Arctic Coast will continue as
widespread light snow develops over the Arctic Plain north to the
Eastern Arctic Coast. Snow is expected to gradually traverse east
through tonight before ending in Umiat Friday afternoon and Barter
Island Friday night. Snowfall totals will be around 2-4 inches
through Friday night. Otherwise, Saturday looks to quiet down
southeast of Utqiagvik but a front will move in from the West with
more widespread snow along the NW Arctic Coast during the
afternoon and snow showers elsewhere. Temperatures will remain
cool but largely above normal this weekend.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
The trend towards a quieter pattern is looking more likely as
ridging builds over much of the state Monday and Tuesday. By
Wednesday, a low looks to pass over the Aleutians into Bristol bay
and may bring a few snow showers to SW alaska with it.
Temperatures try to warm in Western Alaska with strong southerly
flow on Thursday with additional showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-831-832-846.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ819-824-826-828>830-852.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ820-825-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803>805-807-808-816-817-852-855-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803-807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-805-808>813-852-855>859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-817-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Storm Warning for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&