Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

248 
WWAK59 PAFG 250008
SVSAFG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 PM AKDT Sat Jun 24 2023

AKZ221-223-225-250018-
/O.EXP.PAFG.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230625T0015Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Central Interior-Denali-
408 PM AKDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL DELTANA AND
TANANA FLATS...SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN DENALI
WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM AKDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 6425 14865 6411 14891 6424 14947 6445 14908
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 128DEG 13KT 6426 14902 

$$

Metzger

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
103 PM AKDT Sat Jun 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Sun and storms for the Interior today with showers and clouds out
west. Some sun is also peeking through the clouds over the Arctic
Coast. Tomorrow, a chinook blast will bring south winds to the
Interior with gusts to 65 mph in the Alaska Range, and general
gustiness into the 30 mph range elsewhere by afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a shortwave ridge now nosing into the Yukon Flats. A once
migratory low is kicking out to the north across SE Interior. A
large and sprawling Bering low is situated near Amchitka with the
center around 528 dam. There is a basal shortwave trough moving
toward Kodiak Island with a deepening surface low associated with,
around 991 mb. Thunderstorms are already forming early across the
Fortymile Uplands and White Mountains.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in good agreement and show a good
progression of meteorological weather features over the next 4
days. A blend of hi-res models was favored in the short term with
a blend of GFS/ECMWF in the day 3 range.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Storms are forming early over the Fortymile and will spread west
and continue as heavy showers through late this evening and into
the overnight. Some thunderstorms will produce small hail and
heavy downpours with gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Sunday, a blast of Chinook winds will crank through the E Interior
and AK range, with strong south winds to 65 MPH in the AK Range
and 30 mph range elsewhere. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be possible north of the AK Range, but mainly from the White
Mtns north. Because it will be a chinook flow temps will remain in
the 70s. Monday, cooler and drier air moves in so it will be
mostly dry with some showers over the AK Range and S Brooks Range.
More seasonal weather for Tue with a low from the Gulf of AK
clipping the Fortymile Uplands with chances for heavy showers.

West Coast and Western Interior...
South flow and showers over the West Coast will gradually become a
more southeast flow pattern. Nothing really changes except it will
become briefly drier over Kotzebue Sound and Seward Pen before
more showers and heavier rainfall develops Sunday afternoon and
Monday as a frontal system moves into the Bering Strait from the
Interior. Isolated thunderstorms will remain over the Interior and
W Brooks Range. Slight cooling and drying develops over the
Interior Monday and Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Sun is currently gracing large swaths of the N Slope and Arctic
Coast with temps shooting up into the 50s and 60s. East winds
will redevelop overnight so some low stratus and fog will
reappear. Showers forming over the W Brooks Range will drift
north, but Sunday, a stronger push of south winds aloft will cross
the Brooks Range and spark showers and thunderstorms which will
drift north and form into heavier showers. Rain showers will
continue Monday before falling apart Monday night. South winds
through and off the Brooks Range peak Sun afternoon with gusts to
35 mph through passes.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The global numerical weather models are not in good agreement
after day 5. They start out ok with a low over the E Bering Sea
and broad south flow over the Interior. This means mostly showery
weather out west and over the Interior higher elevations. Warmest
temps will continue to be over the far E Interior. This overall
pattern looks to persist into the next weekend, with periodic
heavier shower threats as lows from the Gulf move inland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widely scattered wet thunderstorms over the Interior will weaken
tonight. Isolated to widely wet scattered thunderstorms will be
possible again Sunday with the best chance for widely scattered
over the Upper Koyukuk Valley and Ray Mountains north of Tanana.
However, the bigger story may be strong chinook flow across the AK
Range with gusty south winds developing pretty much the whole
Interior east of Tanana. Gusts to 30 mph are expected with temps
into the mid 70s but min RH levels remaining in the 30% range.

Monday is cooler with only very isolated wet thunderstorm threats
favoring Interior higher elevations but mostly dry elsewhere.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall of up to an inch will fall over the Fortymile Uplands and
possibly up to 1 inch in the SW Brooks Range over the next few
days. However, no flooding concerns are anticipated with minor
rises expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ223-225-226.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-816-817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.

&&

Ahsenmacher