Alert archive / Alaska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

July 7, 2023

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 7, 2023, 7:58 PM AKDT. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 7, 2023, 7:58 PM AKDT (03:58 UTC)
Expired
Jul 7, 2023, 8:30 PM AKDT
In force
32 min
Issued by
NWS Fairbanks, AK
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.25 in
Wind
50.0 mph

The radar

The Fairbanks Faa radar (PAPD), 185 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fairbanks, (PFAI), launched 00:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fairbanks, at 00:00Z on 2023-07-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 239 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fairbanks, at 00:00Z on 2023-07-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -23 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
239 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1133 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.1
Supercell composite
-0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

300 
WUAK59 PAFG 080358
SVRAFG
AKZ220-080430-
/O.NEW.PAFG.SV.W.0013.230708T0358Z-230708T0430Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
758 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2023

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands in Alaska...

* Until 830 PM AKDT.

* At 758 PM AKDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 45 miles south of
  Fort Yukon, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southeastern Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 6595 14344 6581 14456 6592 14507 6638 14467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 207DEG 28KT 6595 14465 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

EB
2 follow-up statements
304 
WWAK59 PAFG 080415
SVSAFG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
815 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2023

AKZ220-080430-
/O.CON.PAFG.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230708T0430Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
815 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM AKDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

At 815 PM AKDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 40 miles southeast
of Fort Yukon, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east
central Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 6595 14344 6588 14406 6609 14492 6638 14467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 207DEG 28KT 6607 14450 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

EB
656 
WWAK59 PAFG 080426
SVSAFG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
825 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2023

AKZ220-080435-
/O.EXP.PAFG.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230708T0430Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
825 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL YUKON FLATS AND
SURROUNDING UPLANDS WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM AKDT...
        
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area but another Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect.

LAT...LON 6595 14344 6588 14406 6609 14492 6638 14467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 207DEG 28KT 6611 14444 

$$

EB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 7, 2:04 PM AKDT, 5 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 2:04 PM AKDT, 5 hours 54 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A wet pattern has set up over the West Coast and
Western Interior and will continue for the rest of the week while
the Eastern Interior will see warmer and drier conditions through
Tonight. Wetter and cooler over the Interior on Saturday.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
A shortwave will move across the Interior this evening and
Saturday morning and continue to the north on Saturday. Another
upper level low will push across the west coast over the weekend
bringing more wetting rain for most of the west coast. Southerly
flow will return to the Interior Sunday into Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Red flag conditions will continue over the Eastern Interior
through this evening. In the Eastern Interior, hot and dry conditions
with highs in the 80s to 90 and RH near 25% will continue today
southeast of Delta Junction and Circle. Winds expected to remain
less than 15 mph in this area. Delta Junction will have winds
south 15 to 30 mph today and tonight, but RH near Delta Junction
should remain above 30%.

Isolated  to widely scattered strong thunderstorms
expected NE of Delta Junction towards Eagle, with isolated PM
thunderstorms Saturday NW of Eagle to Arctic Village.

A weather front over the Central Interior will move east
cross the Eastern Interior tonight and Sat. This is causing
wetting rain in the Central Interior that will spread to the all
of the area NW of Dot Lake tonight and Sat. Cooler temperatures
will follow the front for Sat. The Eastern Interior will warm and
dry on Sun.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A couple of weather systems will keep the west coast unsettled
tonight and through the weekend. Numerous rain showers through
Sunday will cause rises on rivers and streams in the Western and
Central Brooks Range through the weekend. Additional rainfall of
0.75 to 1.50 inches is expected through Saturday. People in this
area should remain alert for the possibility of rising water
levels through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Weather front will spread rain showers across the Brooks range
tonight into Saturday. Heavy rainfall across Brooks Range and
North Slope will result in rising water levels on streams and
rivers. Rainfall totals of 1.0 to 1.5 inches are expected Friday
evening through Saturday evening from the Colville River near
Umiat east to the Ivishak River. Water levels will rise
significantly and may approach bankfull in some low lying areas,
including along the Kuparuk and Sagavanirktok Rivers. People in
this area encouraged to monitor water levels this weekend and
early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are expected this afternoon through 10 pm
this evening in zones 223 and 224 along the Alaska Highway west
of Tanacross to the Gerstle River due to hot, dry and windy
conditions. Strong southerly chinook winds are expected to blow
over the Alaska Range into this area today into this evening.
Strong winds are blowing at Delta Junction and through Isabell
Pass, but RH is expected to remain above 30% from Isabell Pass to
Delta Junction. The remainder of the Eastern Interior will have RH
above 40% today.

A weather front over the Central Interior will move east
across the Eastern Interior tonight and Sat. This is causing
wetting rain in the Central Interior that will spread to the all
of the area NW of Dot Lake tonight and Sat. Cooler temperatures
will follow the front for Sat. Winds could become gusty over
higher terrain on Saturday for the Interior. The Eastern Interior
will warmer and drier on Sun.

Isolated  to widely scattered strong thunderstorms
expected NE of Delta Junction towards Eagle, with isolated PM
thunderstorms Saturday NW of Eagle to Arctic Village.

.HYDROLOGY...
Numerous rain showers through Saturday will cause rises in creeks
and rivers in the Western Brooks Range through the weekend.
Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the western Brooks
range through Friday. Rainfall will push east into the Central
Brooks Range and Central North Slope by the weekend with up to 1.0
inches expected. More Rain expected for the west coast Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-224.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-817-852-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 7, 5:47 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG28 min
Jul 7, 6:05 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG25 min
Jul 7, 6:25 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG21 min
Jul 7, 6:43 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG32 min
Jul 7, 7:11 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatAFG21 min
Jul 7, 7:17 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG28 min
Jul 7, 7:22 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG23 min
Jul 7, 7:25 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG35 min
Jul 7, 7:41 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG17 min
Jul 7, 7:42 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG33 min
Jul 7, 8:09 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG36 min
Jul 7, 8:25 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG35 min
Jul 8, 5:39 AM AKDTFlood WatchAFG58 hr
Jul 8, 6:11 AM AKDTGale WarningAFG8 hr
Jul 8, 6:16 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFG47 hr
Jul 8, 2:06 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFG15 hr
Jul 8, 2:10 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFG39 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Alaska, 2023Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.