Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

498 
WWAK63 PAFG 250442
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
842 PM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023

AKZ220-251645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-230725T1200Z/
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.230725T2100Z-230726T1200Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
842 PM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM
AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR LIGHTNING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING
UPLANDS...

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LIGHTNING FOR YUKON FLATS
AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

* AFFECTED AREA...Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands.

* TIMING...From 1 PM Tuesday to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL...4.

* WINDS...East 5 to 10 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 31 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 70s.

* IMPACTS...Lightning from scattered thunderstorms today and 
  tomorrow Tuesday could lead to new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ221-251645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-230725T1200Z/
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.230725T2100Z-230726T1200Z/
Central Interior-
842 PM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM
AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR LIGHTNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LIGHTNING FOR CENTRAL
INTERIOR...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

* AFFECTED AREA...Central Interior.

* TIMING...From 1 PM Tuesday to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL...4.

* WINDS...West 5 to 10 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 42 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 70s.

* IMPACTS...Lightning from scattered thunderstorms today and 
  tomorrow Tuesday could lead to new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ223-250545-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-230725T1200Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
842 PM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LIGHTNING FOR DELTANA AND
TANANA FLATS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

622 
WWAK63 PAFG 251135
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 AM AKDT Tue Jul 25 2023

AKZ220-260200-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.230725T2100Z-230726T1200Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
335 AM AKDT Tue Jul 25 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR LIGHTNING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING
UPLANDS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands.

* TIMING...From 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL...4.

* WINDS...East 5 to 10 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 31 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 70s.

* IMPACTS...Lightning from scattered thunderstorms today and 
  tomorrow Tuesday could lead to new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ221-260200-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.230725T2100Z-230726T1200Z/
Central Interior-
335 AM AKDT Tue Jul 25 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR LIGHTNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR...

* AFFECTED AREA...Central Interior.

* TIMING...From 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL...4.

* WINDS...West 5 to 10 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 42 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 70s.

* IMPACTS...Lightning from scattered thunderstorms today and 
  tomorrow Tuesday could lead to new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

094 
WWAK63 PAFG 261138
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 AM AKDT Wed Jul 26 2023

AKZ220-261245-
/O.EXP.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230726T1200Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
338 AM AKDT Wed Jul 26 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR LIGHTNING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

Thunderstorm coverage and intensity continues to diminish.

$$

AKZ221-261245-
/O.EXP.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230726T1200Z/
Central Interior-
338 AM AKDT Wed Jul 26 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR LIGHTNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR...

Thunderstorm coverage and intensity continues to diminish.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
306 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A very active thunderstorm day is expected over the Western,
Central and Eastern Interior with strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms expected especially along a line from near Galena
to Manley Hot Springs to Fairbanks and to Delta Junction. Another
couple days of near record warmth is expected over much of
Northern Alaska before temperatures begin to cool by the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Not a lot of change is expected in the short range forecast as a
strong upper ridge persists over the Eastern Interior and Yukon
area into Wednesday. The upper level ridge will continue to slowly
retrograde west towards central AK through the middle of the
week and will then be pushed back east as the low over the Bering
Sea gets closer to the Bering Strait and continues its northward
trajectory on Thursday. At the surface, weak surface troughing
persist across the Interior and is brining low level moisture into
the central Interior and combined with a weak shortwave riding
north along the western portions of the upper level ridge will
combine to help initiate storms this afternoon and evening as well
as tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Model Discussion...
The 24/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and upper air observations and verified well against the
06z surface analysis. Model spread remain limited in the short
and mid range but begins to diverge on solutions by the end of the
week the GFS developing a ridge over central AK and the ECMWF and
Canadian bringing areas of low pressure.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The primarily focus over the next couple of days will be the heat
and thunderstorms across the Eastern and Central Interior. Afternoon
highs are expected to be hot with temperatures reaching the upper
80s and lower 90s with the hottest temperatures expected in the
Yukon Flats and the middle Tanana Valley. Smoke from the wild land
fires in Canada continues to push west into Alaska and could
hinder the highest temperatures. Temperatures will continue to be
in the low-mid 80s through the weekend. Moisture in the low
levels combined with abundant energy in the atmosphere with the
warm temperatures and combined with a weak shortwave moving north
along the Ridge over Eastern Alaska will produce strong and
possibly a few severe thunderstorms over portions of the Area
with the greatest threat being along a line from near Manley Hot
Spring to Fairbanks to Delta Junction. these thunderstorms will be
capable of producing heavy rain, strong gusty winds, frequent
lightning and hail this afternoon and evening and to a lesser
degree on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Generally meridional flow will persist across the West Coast.
with drier and warm conditions persisting through today. The
upper low over the Bering Sea starts its northern migration which
will bring periods of rain on Tuesday and over the next few days
over the coast. The Western Interior will see isolated to
scattered storms through Tuesday, especially in the eastern
portions of the region. See the above paragraph in the Eastern and
Central Interior portion of the discussion for more info about
the nature of the storms.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Another day of record to near record warm is expected over the
North Slope and Brooks Range today. It will remain hot over the
North Slope and the Brooks Range for the next couple of days as
the upper high pressure area remain near the Alcan Border and
slowly expands north towards the Arctic Ocean. The temperature
reached 71 degrees at Utqiagvik yesterday breaking a record high
for the date of 70 degrees set in 2004. Temperatures will be in
the 70s with locations near the Brooks Range reaching the lower
80s. Cooler weather is expected to return towards the end of the
work week. Areas of fog continue to be possible near the coast
during the morning hours.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Uncertainty continues in the extended forecast as models start to
diverge by weeks end with the Canadian and ECMWF having similar
solutions with shortwave troughs passing through the area which
could bring cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps a high
pressure area expanding over central AK which would result in and
extended period of heat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 1 PM Monday TO 4 AM AKDT
Tuesday for lightning for the the Yukon Flats and surrounding
uplands, for the Central Interior as well as the Deltana and
Tanana Flats as scattered thunder storms with heavy rain, strong
gusty winds, hail and frequent lighting are expected in these
areas. High pressure will remain over the Eastern and Central
Interior and will expand towards the Western Interior. Hot
temperatures and relatively dry conditions will continue through
the middle of the week. The high will start to retreat back
towards the east on Wednesday. As the high shifts east moisture
will start to slip in from the west. Minimum relative humidity for
the Interior will be in the 20-35% range with values increasing
above 40% by mid- week. Winds will be relatively light through the
foreseeable future. Although breezy easterly winds around 10-15
mph are expected along the Yukon Flats today and light westerly
winds expected along the Tanana Valley on Tuesday. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected in the same areas again on
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High flows will continue over the Tanana River. Locally heavy
rain due to storms over the next few days could result in quick
rises over rivers and streams, especially for the Tanana River.
Anomalously high snow levels generally above 10-11 kft are
expected over the next two days. Glacial melt and melting of high
elevation snow is highly likely. Therefore, we should expect a
rise of rivers and streams near the Alaska Range through the week.
These high flows will cause issues along low lying areas, plus
there will be an increase of debris along rivers and streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ220-221-223.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
901 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023

AKZ218-242115-
Southeastern Brooks Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
and Iniakuk Lake
901 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...Thunderstorms with Heavy Rain Continue Over the Brooks
Range...

Strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and frequent lightning will
continue through the rest of the morning between Chandalar Lake
and Arctic Village in the southern slopes of the Brooks Range.
Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected by noon,
which could lead to localized flash flooding. Additionally,
streams in the vicinity could have quick rises resulting in
flooding of low lying areas.

HC