Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
116 AM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet pattern has set up over the West Coast and Western Interior
and will continue for the rest of the week while the Eastern and
Central Interior will see another day of seasonal temperatures and
a chance of showers today before a return to above normal temperatures
and drier conditions on Thursday and Friday. The North Slope will
see seasonal temperatures and periods of rain especially to the
west of Utqiagvik.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Troughing remains over the west coast with a short wave moving
north of the Arctic Coast tonight. A strong ridge builds back
westward into the Eastern and Central Interior Thursday and
Friday. The upper level low over the Central Aleutians will push
north and east over Bristol Bay by Friday and will provide several
rounds of rain possibly heavy at times over the Western Interior,
the Western Brooks Range as well as the West Coast through the
rest of the week.

Models...
The 5th/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and upper air observations and verified well against the
06z surface analysis. Model spread is minimal between model
families and from run to run in both the short range and mid range
and is reasonable in the extended range. Model concensus
continues to indicate a highly blocked meridional patter with a
deep longwave trough over the Chukchi Sea, the Bering Strait and
the Bering Sea while an upper level ridge remains over British
Columbia and the Yukon into the weekend and early next week. The
pattern does show signs of drifting to the east with the longwave
trough moving over the Eastern Bering Sea, the West Coast and the
Western Interior while the upper level high pressure ridge moves
east out over the Northwest Territories and the Prairie
Providences of Canada be early next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warmer temperatures are expected as skies continue to scatter out
as the upper level high pressure system builds back west over the
Eastern and Central Interior today. Expect high temperatures
today in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Temperatures continue to warm
Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the lower 70s to mid
80s. Minimal shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today
and Thursday. On Friday areas mainly west of Fairbanks will be
slightly cooler as moisture and clouds move in from the southwest.
Minimum relative humidity levels will drop into the 25% to 35%
today and on Thursday. Expect similar number in the Eastern
Interior on Friday, however low level moisture moving into the
area from the southwest will nudge minimum relative humidity
levels into the 40s from Fairbanks west on Friday. Winds are
expected to remain light except along and near the Eastern Alaska
Range Passes and foothills. Near Red Flag conditions are possible
again today and Thursday in the Deltana and Tanana Flats near
Delta Junction.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A cooler and wetter pattern continues to manifest itself today
and will continue through the rest of the week and early next
week with scattered to numerous rain showers. Wetting rains
looking likely across much of the area through the end of the
week. Widespread rainfall totals in the 1.00"-2.00" with locally
higher amounts through Friday. A special weather statement has
been issued for possible river rises in the Western Brooks Range
through the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A wet weather pattern is setting up over the Western North Slope
and Western Brooks Range through Friday. The pattern will shift
east into the Central Brooks Range and Central North Slope by the
weekend. Expect seasonal temperatures and periods of rain possibly
heavy at times into the weekend. Winds will be gusty along the
Arctic Coast, especially to the east of Utqiagvik and along the
eastern foothills of the Northern Brooks Range into Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Several rounds of wetting rains are expected this week and into
the weekend over the Western Interior, the Western Brooks Range
and the West Coast as several rounds of rain push through the
area. Expect mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and minimal
chances of precipitation today in the Central Interior and Eastern
Interior. Expect increasing clouds tomorrow in the Central
Interior as moisture moves in from the southwest. Expect minimal
thunderstorm activity both today and tomorrow over northern
Alaska. Minimum relative humidity levels are expected to remain
above 40% to the West of Fairbanks today and tomorrow, with 25% to
35% expected to the east of Fairbanks. The driest areas are
expected to be in the Deltana and Tanana Flats where values are
expected to drop to around 25%. Winds are expected to remain light
over the Central and Eastern Interior with the exception of the
Eastern Alaska foothills and the Deltana and Tanana Flats. Near
Red Flag meteorological conditions are expected in these areas
this afternoon and again on Thursday afternoon. Relative humidity
levels will improve on Friday afternoon mainly west of Fairbanks
as moisture moves into the area, however little improvement in
minimal relative humidity levels are expected to the east of
Delta Junction on Friday with values dropping again into the 255
to 35% range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Numerous rain showers through Friday will cause rises in creeks
and rivers in the Western Brooks Range through the weekend.
Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the western Brooks
range through Friday. Rainfall will push east into the Central
Brooks Range and Central North Slope by the weekend with up to 1.0
inches expected.

People in the Western and Central Brooks range and along waterways
north and west of Galena should should remain alert for the possibility
of rising water levels through the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&