High Wind Warning 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

406 
WWAK73 PAFG 160004
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2023

AKZ847-160600-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-231116T0600Z/
Northern Denali Borough-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, 
Anderson, and The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288
304 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 75 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Denali Borough.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ849-160600-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-231116T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259
304 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

653 
WWAK73 PAFG 160249
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
549 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2023

AKZ847-849-160400-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-231116T0600Z/
Northern Denali Borough-Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Kantishna, 
Anderson, The Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259
549 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Model forecast soundings show the strongest low-level winds above
the ground level have diminished early this evening over the
Alaska Range. Surface observations have recorded this trend in a
drop off of wind gust speeds as well. The High Wind Warning has
been cancelled three hours early as a result. A few inches of
snowfall remains possible through tonight and Thursday though in
this area and may lead to patchy blowing snow with gusts to 40 mph
persisting.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
423 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
The main story is the Bering Sea low which has already been
bringing heavy snow and gusty winds for portions of the Western
Interior, SW Alaska and the southern Seward Peninsula. This will
continue tonight and progress northeast through the Western
Interior with several inches of snow expected over a large swath
of the area. Elsewhere, the Central Interior will get in on the
action, but only from west of the Dalton Highway to Tanana and
north. Fairbanks south and east will remain dry outside of some
higher terrain snow and a few isolated snow showers that can make
it through the dry air. The North Slope will also see snow from
this, though it will not be too heavy or cause many impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 504 decameter low is moving east towards St. Matthew Island with
its accompanying warm front moving through the Western Interior.
Weak, transient ridging it pushing through the Central and Eastern
Interior and heading into Canada. A 492 decameter low is in the
Arctic Ocean north of Wrangel Island with a front pivoting through
the West and Central North Slope. Otherwise, an Arctic front will
be dropping south behind the Bering Sea Low which will force the
low east out of the area by the end of the week. Following this
front will be an intrusion of more seasonable temperatures across
the state this weekend.

Surface Analysis...
A strong 964 mb low southwest of St. Matthew Island with an
extending warm front into the West Coast and Western Interior of
Alaska. This is bringing widespread heavy snow and strong winds.
A 985 mb low centered north of Wrangel Island at about 78N has a
front extending southeast and a second, weaker front moving
through the West and Central Arctic Coast bringing snow showers. A
1018 mb high is located just to the east of Eagle in Canada and is
providing dry weather to the Eastern Interior but this is
transient and moving east, but will open the door to some snow
tomorrow night, especially in the higher terrain.

West Coast and Western Interior
The strong Bering Sea Low has brought its warm front onshore with
heavy snow and strong wind. It is currently moving into the
Western Interior and will continue to move northeast through the
day as the center of the storm arrives onshore this afternoon
around Scammon Bay. By this time, several inches of snow will have
already fallen in a large swath from St. Mary's to Huslia and as
far east as Tanana and Nikolai. Heavy snow will continue into the
night and through Thursday for much of the aforementioned area
with upwards of 3-8 additional inches of snow expected in those
same locations. When all is said and done, a widespread 8 to 16
inches of snow will fall across much of the Western Interior and
up through the southern Brooks Range. Along the Coast, snowfall
totals will mostly be around 4 to 7 inches. Strong northerly winds
are expected along the coast as well today and tonight but will
gradually diminish tomorrow. Warnings for wind and snow as well as
advisories for high surf have been issued and should be monitored
for any updates. Otherwise, things quiet down on Friday as any
lingering snow becomes lighter and moves east in the Interior with
scattered snow showers expected along the coast, then it gets
noticeably chillier as northwesterly winds usher in colder air.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The main story will be the West Coast low moving northeast into
the Central Interior. Specifically from the Dalton Highway south
and west to Tanana where heavy snow is likely and Winter Storm
Warnings are issued. Snow will begin early this morning in Tanana
and more towards Noon around Bettles. The snow will be heavy at
times and will continue through the afternoon before lightening up
tonight. Around 5 to 8 inches of snow is possible through tonight
with additional snow continuing through the day on Thursday. Areas
near the Brooks Range such as Bettles may receive another 6+
inches of snow from Thursday into Friday. The snow won't
completely stop until Friday night. Otherwise, for the remainder
of the Central and Eastern Interior, there will be some snow
through Friday as well, just not as heavy and impactful. As the
warm front moves northeast, some very light snow or flurries will
be possible from Fairbanks south and east to the Alaska Range.
Meanwhile, the south facing slopes of the Alaska Range will be
getting light snow becoming heavier quickly this morning and
continuing through tonight. Snow will breakout in the higher
terrain to the north and east of Fairbanks and in the Eastern
Interior tonight but only last until the early morning hours on
Thursday. The remainder of Thursday in the Central/Eastern
Interior from Fairbanks north and east looks mostly dry into
Thursday afternoon. Then, there is some uncertainty during the
mid-afternoon and evening for the Middle Tanana Valley. The
chinooking looks to weaken in intensity which will limit some of
the drying, and with a low moving nearly overhead, some light snow
can break out across the Middle Tanana Valley. Right now, exact
snowfall totals are uncertain, but this is mostly looking like a
nuisance event with a 1 to 3 inches of snow possible through
Thursday night. Additional light snow will be possible on Friday
across the Interior as the low takes on it's best snail impression
and slowly moves east.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
As a front lingers along the West and Central Arctic Coast, snow
showers remain possible today with accumulations around 1 to 2
inches or less. Snow will become more widespread from Atqasuk
south and east through the Brooks Range as a front pushes north
this afternoon. Snow is likely for most of the North Slope east of
Utqiagvik this afternoon and tomorrow, then on the backside of the
front, northwest flow brings in snow showers once again from
Utqiagvik south and west Thursday afternoon through Friday. Snow
totals for the snow showers will be around around an inch or 2
while the widespread snow which may linger through Friday, looks
to be around 2 to 6 inches with the heaviest from Umiat south
through the Central Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
As the strong low we've been talking about finally gets pushed out
by a front this weekend, temperatures will be dropping. A few cold
air advection snow showers will be possible this weekend, but it
will be largely drier than the previous few days from Fairbanks
west. In the Eastern Interior, one thing we will be monitoring is
a low moving north from the Gulf of Alaska which can bring light
snow Saturday into Sunday. Otherwise, looking out west next week,
there are hints of another Bering Sea low which can bring more
precipitation and strong winds. As of now, the track is still
being determined and this doesn't look like anything too
significant for our area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...See High Surf Advisories
for ongoing coastal concerns. Winds will ramp up again out of the
north today into Thursday over the Bering Strait and Norton Sound
and along the Yukon Delta coast, bringing the potential for
elevated surf along north facing coastlines.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-831-832-846.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ819-824-826-828>830-852.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ820-825-827.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ821.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ827.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803-804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-809-855.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>812-855>858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-816-817-850>854-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ815.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852-853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

Bianco