Gale Warning 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
647 AM AKDT Fri Mar 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A low just NW of Galena will move to near Atqasuk this afternoon
and then north of Utqiagvik tonight. A cold front from this low to
McGrath will move to Atqasuk to Delta Junction by this afternoon,
and to Inuvik to Northway tonight. This will bring 1-2 inches of
snow across most of the Interior today and tonight with 4 inches
near the Alaska Range and over the Western AK Range. This is
causing gusty winds and blowing snow over the Western Interior
this morning, and will cause gusty winds and blowing snow through
Brooks Range Passes today. This will cause gusty winds and blowing
snow over the Interior Highway Summits this afternoon and
tonight and along the Alaska Highway east of Dot Lake tonight.
Just brief light snow will accompany this low and front over the
North Slope today and tonight. Will see SW winds of 20 to 30 mph
and blowing snow over the Western Arctic coast on the back side of
this low this afternoon into tonight, with visibility as low as
1/2 mile tonight from Wainwright west.

Bomb cyclogenisis occuring in the Western Bering Sea today and
tonight will bring strong southerly winds, snow and blowing snow
with blizzard conditions to St lawrence Island and the Bering
Strait by early Sat, and to the remainder of the West Coast on Sat
that will continue into Sat night and taper off on Sun. Snow and
winds will spread into the Western Interior on Sat night, with
some snow moving into the Central Interior on Sun. Expect 4-8
inches of snow across most of the West Coast and Western Interior
with this Sat through Sun, with over 12 inches possible along
south facing slopes. Blizzard conditions will occur over most of
the West Coast Sat and Sat night. Winds will remain strong into
Sat night, then decrease on Sun. Could see gusts to 70 mph Sat and
Sat night along Western Capes, and to 60 mph along most of the
West Coast, with gusts to 40 mph in the Western Interior Sat night
and Sun.

Strong south winds gusting over 40 mph will develop across the
Brooks Range Sat night and combine with falling snow to provide
near blizzard conditions there Sat night and Sun.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a ridge over the Eastern Pacific
and Western Canada with a long wave trough over Eastern Russia,
the Sea of Okhotsk and the NW Pacific. There is a very strong
short wave trough over the West Coast of Alaska that will move to
Wainwright to Kodiak by 4pm Fri, to Nuiqsut to Valdez by 4am Sat,
and along the ALCAN Border by 4pm Sat. The long wave ridge will
build over Mainland AK tonight and Sat west of this short wave
trough. A surface low and cold front associated with this trough
will track NE with the trough and bring weather NE across AK.

A second strong short wave from the Chukotsk Peninsula South will
move to Anadyr south across the Western Bering Sea by 4pm Sat, to
Wrangel Island to Adak by 4pm Sun, then along the West Coast of
Alaska on Mon. This will pull the long wave trough east over the
Bering Sea Sat and Sun. This will set up strong SW flow aloft over
western AK Sat PM and Sun and bring stormy conditions to all of
Western AK this weekend. Westerly flow will continue across AK
next week.

Surface...
A 994 mb low 100 NM north of Cape Lisburne will move to 300 NM
north of Cape lisburne as a 993 mb low by 4pm Fri then continue
moving north. A low pressure trough the extends southwest from
this low will move to Point Lay to Kotzebue by 4pm Fri, and to
Wainwright to Huslia by 4am Fri. Will see SW winds of 20 to 30 mph
and snow and blowing snow over the Western Arctic coast along
this trough this afternoon into tonight, with visibility as low as
1/2 mile tonight from Wainwright west.

A 999 mb low 100 NM east of Kotzebue will move to 30 NM south of
Utqiagvik as a 1004 mb low by 4pm Fri then move north and become
absorbed by the first low. A cold front from this low to McGrath
will move to Atqasuk to Delta Junction by 4pm Fri, and to Inuvik
to Northway by 4am Sat. See synopsis for weather details.

A very strong low developing in the Western Bering Sea today will
move to near Anadyr as a 970 mb low by 4pm Sat, to near Wrangel
Island as a 976 mb low by 4am Sun, and to 200 NM north of Wrangel
Is as a 975 mb low by 4pm Sun. A warm front with this low now in
the Western Bering Sea will move to the Northeast Bering Sea by
4am sat, to Point Hope to Anvik by 4pm Sat, to Deering to Mcgrath
by 4am Sun, and to Galena to Delta Junction by 4pm Sun. A cold
front with this will move to Provideniya to St Matthew Is by 4pm
Sat, to Deering to St Paul Is by 4am Sun, and to Utqiagvik to
Galena by 4pm Sun. The occluded front will move over NE Russia
tonight and Sat, to Deering to Point Lay north by 4am Sun, and to
and to Utqiagvik to Galena by 4pm Sun. See synopsis for weather
details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z. Models show very similar
solutions aloft through Sun, with good agreement into early next
week before models start to diverge in the second half of next
week. Will use a blend of models for features aloft such as
clouds, temperatures.

At 850 MB, temperatures range from -6C along the ALCAN Border to
-24C along the West Coast. Conditions cool across Eastern AK 6-10C
 today through tonight, while the West Coast start to warm tonight
 and Sat with temps by Sat PM -2C over the YK Delta and to -8C
 near Point Hope. Expect this dramatic warming to spread over
 Interior AK Sat night and Sun with 0C 850 temps over the southern
 Interior Sat night and Sun. This will bring a chance of snow,
 rain and freezing rain to the southern Interior SE of Anvik to
 Fairbanks to Delta Junction Sat night and Sun.

With precipitation, models show similar areal coverage and amounts
through Sun. Will use a blend of models for precipitation with the
following caveats: Snow now occuring over the Western Interior and
West Coast north of McGrath to Deering will into the Central
Interior early this morning, to Denali to Fairbanks to Chandalar
Lake by late morning, and into the Eastern Interior this
afternoon and evening. Snow will end across the Interior from the
SW tonight and Sat. Expect 1-2 inches of snow across most of the
Interior from this today and tonight with 4 inches near the Alaska
Range and over the Western AK Range. Snow likely in zones 213 and
214 after midnight tonight, to the rest of the West Coast on Sat,
into the Western Interior late Sat night, and to the Central
Interior on Sun. Snow will be light at first then become heavier
Sat night into Sun. Expect 4-8 inches of snow across most of the
West Coast and Western Interior with this Sat through Sun, with
over 12 inches possible along south facing slopes.

At the surface, models verify well on most features at 06Z, but
all are about 3 mb too weak on the low just north of Cape
Lisburne. The NAM keeps this low over the Chukchi Sea deeper than
other models today and also keep the low 100 NM east of Kotzebue
deeper than other models as it moves north today. Since both of
these features are vertically stacked, expect them to weaken more
slowly than models indicate, For this reason prefer the the NAM
for winds today into tonight, but bump up winds a few kt in NW AK
through tonight to acknowledge that the feature may be deeper than
even the NAM shows. With the bomb cyclogenisis in the Western
Bering today and tonight, models are fairly similar. Models all
weaken this feature as it moves north over NE Russia Sat and Sat
night. The NAM maintains this feature deeper than other models,
and given that it is vertically, again expect this feature to weak
more slowly and thus prefer the NAM Winds for Sat into Sun.
Expect southerly gales to spread into zone 213 early Sat, and to
the remainder of the West Coast on Sat. Winds will remain strong
into Sat night, then decrease on Sun. Could see gusts to 70 mph
Sat and Sat night along Western Capes, and 50 to 60 mph along most
of the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Southerly Gales along the
West Coast Sat and Sat night will cause sea level rises of 3-4 ft
Sat into Sun. This will cause water to seep up on top of the ice
near the coast Sat and Sun, similar to what occurred earlier this
week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ211.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ212.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ213.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ214.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ215>217.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ217.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207>209.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-850-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
&&