Gale Warning 33, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
303 PM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Clear and cold conditions through much of north Alaska
with high pressure holding this afternoon. Another very cold night
is on tap for the Interior of Alaska. The next storm system is
approaching the West Coast and Western Interior tonight. Conditions
will deteriorate late this evening for the lower Yukon Delta,
across St. Lawrence Island and eventually along Norton Sound and
the lower Seward Peninsula with snow and some blizzard conditions
along coastal areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad high pressure at surface across much of the Alaskan Interior
this afternoon. This brought clearing conditions last night leading
to efficient cooling of overnight lows. High pressure will mostly
hold over the central and eastern Interior tonight. A weak surface
low over the eastern Beaufort Sea Coast will fully dissipate this
evening, especially as the surface high slides eastward. A
relatively weak 1007mb surface low just southeast of Wrangle Island
will slowly drift northeastward before being absorbed by the
deepening low entering the Bering Sea. The 971mb low near Attu
Island will deepen through the night as it approaches St. Matthew
Island around 960mb and near Nome Tuesday night around 956mb.
Overall, the NAM/CMC seem to have the best handle on this evolution
over the next 24-36 hrs, whereas the GFS is slower, pinwheeling
several low centers around the mean low as it moves through the
Bering Sea.

A look aloft tells a similar story as at the surface with several
stacked features through the atmosphere. Broad ridging through the
eastern Bering Sea will amplify as the deep 496 dam low digs into
the crest of the ridge tonight, eventually approaching the Bering
Strait Tuesday night. Again, siding with a NAM/CMC blend handling
the transition from the Bering Sea low to the Gulf of Alaska low
that takes over Wednesday. The weak trough aloft across far
northeast Alaska will be absorbed by the mean troughing east through
the Canadian Archipelago.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Mostly quiet across the North Slope and Brooks Range today. A few
lingering pockets of clouds associated with the dissipating
trough over the central and eastern Beaufort Sea. Otherwise,
expecting another relatively clear and cold night again tonight.
The storm system moving through the Bering Sea could bring some
light snow to the southern Brooks Range Tuesday. Lows tonight are
expected to be 20s to 30s below from the Arctic Plain through
Coastal areas where cloud coverage is lost. The Brooks Range will
be highly variable depending on elevation, but lows could range
from teens below to near 30 below. Highs Tuesday will range from
the single digits above and below through the Brooks Range and
teens below through the Arctic Coast. Additional cloud cover
associated with the West Coast storm should help moderate lows
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Relatively weak low pressure over the Chukchi Sea is leading to
enhanced surface flow through the Bering Strait, Kotzebue Sound
and near Point Hope. Seeing low stratus, strong winds and some
blowing snow reported this afternoon, along with low wind chills
along the Kotzebue Peninsula. With this in mind, will begin the
Winter Weather Advisory early for Kotzbue for the low wind chills
ahead of the arrival of the storm approaching tonight. Speaking
of the storm, beginning to see high and mid level clouds
advancing over St. Lawrence Island and through the lower Yukon
Delta as moisture begins to approach from the southwest. Expecting
conditions to greatly deteriorate tonight from Chevak and Hooper
Bay north to Savoonga and Nome by Tuesday morning. Strong winds
and fresh snow will lead to Blizzard conditions for several
coastal communities. Accumulating snow and moderate winds are
expected across inland areas from Russian Mission north through
Kaltag and Galena. Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings and
Winter Weather Advisories will go into effect tonight. Winter
Weather Advisories will be expanded to include the Seward
Peninsula, Kotzebue Peninsula and Bering Strait Coast. Low
temperatures tonight will generally be warmer than last night with
additional moisture and cloud cover moderating temperatures.
Highs Tuesday will also surge upward to positives for most
locations as warmer air pushes in from the south.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Clear conditions for the Central and Eastern Interior with
stagnant air conditions in place. Expect another night of frigid
temperatures under mostly clear and calm conditions. Tonight's
West Coast storm will move into the Interior Tuesday afternoon
spreading snow and winds first through the Alaska Range and then
northward through the Upper Tanana Valley through Nenana Tuesday
night. Accumulating snow and strong winds through the Alaska Range
will lead to difficult travel conditions Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning. As the wind increases through the
Tanana Valley Tuesday afternoon, we could see dangerous wind
chills from Delta Junction west through Nenana and towards Tanana.
In terms of actual temperatures, lows tonight should be similar
to what we saw last night ranging from the mid 20s below to near
40 below near Bettles and Fort Yukon. Highs will recover a decent
amount on Tuesday as warmer air tries to move into the Interior
and should range from around 10 above north of Denali Park to
single digits below in the Yukon Flats.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...As the strong low moves
to the Bering Strait Wednesday water may be pushed up on the ice
south of the Bering Strait.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7... Lingering moisture in the
wake of the midweek storm through the Interior will dissipate from
snow showers to flurries Thursday and Friday. Cold arctic air
will once again move through the Interior dropping temperatures to
below normals. The northern Pacific ridge tries to reestablish
through the Alaskan Peninsula by Saturday but moisture overrunning
the top of the ridge will keep active weather for the West Coast,
Western Interior and into the Interior and Brooks Range. The
Yukon Delta and Seward Peninsula seem to be remain the most active
with rounds of snow through Sunday and into the next week.&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ211.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ212.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ214.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ215.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-210-216-221-226.
     Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ223.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ227.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ209.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ200.
     Gale Warning for PKZ201.
     Storm Warning for PKZ210.
     Gale Warning for PKZ215.
     Gale Warning for PKZ220.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-230.
&&