Gale Warning 193, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure continues to spin over the Bering Sea,
pulling disturbances up through the Gulf of Alaska. Some areas of
snow and wind remain possible, mostly fairly marginal. Troughing
persists over the Bering Strait and Sea through the week as
ridging builds over western Canada, with ridging becoming the
stout feature into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...

An oblong upper level cut off low over the Bering Sea and into the
Bering Strait persists, dragging a very meridional shortwave over
the Gulf of Alaska and the Alaska Range. This has pulled along a
region of snow across the Interior and to the Brooks Range. Wrap
around flow off the Bering Sea is pushing clear skies and very
cold temperatures into the West Coast and Western Interior, as
this continues to push east, it will tighten the frontal
temperature gradient over the Interior into early Tuesday morning
providing further mesoscale support to the region of snow.
Additionally upslope flow along the southern Brooks Range should
further enhance some snowfall rates along the Dalton Highway. The
spinning cut off low in the Bering Sea should finally start to
breakdown mid to late week as upper level troughing pushes in
further west over the Aleutians. Colder 850mb temperatures persist
through Wednesday across much of northern Alaska as a weak
shortwave propagates up the West Coast. High pressure and weak
ridging begins to push into the Interior and Brooks Range by late
week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

An area of snowfall continues to push into parts of the West Coast
(mostly the Seward Peninsula) bringing light to moderate
accumulating snow, and some strong winds into the southern Seward
Peninsula. Some stronger southerly winds may continue along the
West Coast, turning easterly through Tuesday. Easterly winds could
be exacerbated over the Norton and Kotzebue Sound with drainage
winds. Snow showers ongoing this afternoon should peter off
overnight with a quick break of high pressure Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Another round of snow showers is expected to begin
Wednesday along the West Coast, which appears to mostly just bring
on and off showers to the area, though some stronger bands with
ocean-enhancement could develop just off the coast, which may lead
to some reduced visibility at times.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Upslope flow along the Alaska Range may lead to light additional
snowfall along the northern faces and peaks through tonight. A
meridional shortwave continues to pull snowfall out of the SSE
this afternoon into Tuesday, which is stretching a front with
light to moderate snowfall across portions of the eastern and
central Interior. Expecting that this front will strengthen as the
temperature gradient intensifies over the eastern Interior with
good snowfall rates overnight and good saturated DGZs. This
should bring accumulations of at least a couple inches to the
Interior by Tuesday morning, with the highest amounts over the
higher elevations east and north of Fairbanks, especially along
the Dalton Highway into the Brooks Range. High end amounts will
probably top out around 4-5 inches. Expect slightly quieter
conditions into Wednesday with a little high pressure.
Temperatures will likely fall overnight and through the day
Wednesday as chilly 850mb temperatures are able to infiltrate the
region. Surface temperatures in the negative teens and 20s seem
likely with colder local areas. At least marginally cold
temperatures will likely stick around through the end of the week
as ridging builds in and holds that air mass over the region. Most
guidance does not bring precipitation to the Interior after the
current front passes.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Light snow remains possible as a front pushes up over the North
Slope overnight into Tuesday and through to Wednesday morning.
Areas along the southern slope of the Brooks Range could see
moderate snowfall rates with 4-6 inches locally possible.
Southerly winds along the Dalton Highway could lead to blowing and
drifting snowfall in that area. As the front pushes into the
Arctic Sea west winds build in behind in, which could become gusty
along the Beaufort Sea coast late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Euro ensemble guidance shows westerly gusts of 40 to 55mph
possible at Barter Island 06-18z Wednesday. Have stayed slightly
lower than this in the current forecast but a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for Point Thompson to Barter Island
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for blowing snow and
reduced visibility.

Extended Forecast Days 4-8...

Troughing should continue to dig across the Gulf of Alaska through
the week with a cut off low spinning in the Bering Sea, along
which trailing systems may follow. But as the troughing becomes
more negatively tilted and slides southward, that will allow for
more stout ridging to push into eastern Alaska. Depending on
exactly where these set up could determine if there is an ample
path for moisture advection into the Interior, and if the Interior
and North Slope might see a period of above average temperatures.
Most ensemble guidance is in agreement for northwesterly flow to
be the primary feature for the West Coast, with anomalously cold
temperatures.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

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